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Pass or bid? Situational hand evaluation

#1 User is offline   Al_U_Card 

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Posted 2005-July-21, 14:49

Scoring: MP

p p 1 2
p 2 DBL ???


Shall you bid and if so, what?
The Grand Design, reflected in the face of Chaos...it's a fluke!
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#2 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2005-July-21, 14:54

4H

3D is second choice.
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#3 User is offline   pigpenz 

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Posted 2005-July-21, 15:03

i would bid 3 then if partner bids 3's i bid 4's
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#4 User is offline   pbleighton 

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Posted 2005-July-21, 15:42

4H.

Peter
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#5 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2005-July-21, 16:46

4.. i'll be on lead if they play in spades, no need in telling them about my diamonds
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
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#6 User is offline   HeartA 

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Posted 2005-July-21, 17:48

3
Senshu
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#7 User is online   mikeh 

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Posted 2005-July-21, 17:56

4 calls seem possible: pass, 3, 4 or 4.

3 is out of the question, since for me 2 has to be a strong raise in , and a good rule is that making the mimimum bid in the agreed suit over the double shows the worst hand. 3 rejects all game tries.

I vote for 4, but not with any degree of confidence.

I do so because the worst thing I can hear would be a delayed raise on my left. If it comes at the 4-level, I am going to want my bid back, so that I can bid 3 to help partner make a decision [I am pulling to 5, since I am clearly in superman mode with my 4 bid].

But I rate the likelihood of 4 as lower than the likelihood of 3 over either pass or 3.... LHO will rarely have the 4 trump needed to justify a 4-level bid, since he failed to bid a weak 3 last time, but he might well have an annoying 3=3=3=4/ 3=3=2=5 just too weak for 2.

3 is ostensibly a game-try, but should be length/strength based since the auction suggests the possibility of a high-level decision being involved, and partner can anticipate that. So it may help him decide what to do. Pass, on the other hand, is counter-productive if LHO raises but maximizes the chances that he won't even when he should! And since we are going to bid game no matter what he does, I'd rank pass ahead of 3.


Phew, I thought I had covered everything, but what about 4? 4 has an edge over 3 in that it shows the game-going nature of the hand (3 might be weaker, game-try only) and ensures that partner knows that you hold a red hand, with no black defence. But I would like 5-5 or better for that bid.

So 4 = 100, 4 = 90, Pass = 80, 3 = 70 and 3 = -30
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#8 User is offline   bearmum 

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Posted 2005-July-21, 18:06

4 :lol: wtp
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#9 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2005-July-21, 19:41

Never 3, I am going to bid game, 4 seems right to me. Sort of a self-fit jump. If you play splinters here, forget it.. don't bid 4 just bid 4 in that case. This might be a walk the dog hand anyway, where you take the push to 4, so pass might be right (forcing)... This is a PFA situation (pass is STRONGER than 3).

Ben
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#10 User is offline   HeartA 

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Posted 2005-July-22, 01:29

inquiry, on Jul 21 2005, 08:41 PM, said:

Never 3, I am going to bid game, 4 seems right to me. Sort of a self-fit jump. If you play splinters here, forget it.. don't bid 4 just bid 4 in that case. This might be a walk the dog hand anyway, where you take the push to 4, so pass might be right (forcing)... This is a PFA situation (pass is STRONGER than 3).

Ben

well, I take PASS as the weakest action.
Senshu
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2005-July-22, 04:21

3D or 4D seems normal to me, just in case LHO bids some nr. of spades or clubs.
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#12 User is offline   coyot 

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Posted 2005-July-22, 05:00

3 to show p where my values are. Then I can easily let him decide whether to bid 5 over 4 or not.

(If I bid 4 right now and opps end up in 4, he has no idea whether to bid or not - and nor do I.)
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#13 User is offline   Blofeld 

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  Posted 2005-July-22, 05:45

Was going to bid 3, but on reflection I like 4 better.

I see no reason to keep partner in the dark with a 4 bid.
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#14 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2005-July-22, 07:17

4, shows 6-4... With 5-5 3 is enough, with GF 5-5 I would've started with a michael's cuebid.
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#15 User is offline   mikestar 

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Posted 2005-July-22, 07:25

Let me lay out what the alternatives mean to me, assuming we play 2=Limit raise+

Pass=Rejects game try, the hand is defensively oriented but not good enough to redouble.

Redouble=Accepts game try but very defensively oriented, Will have only five hearts, some spade strength, and extra cards in the minors.

3=Fit showing, a counter try.

3=Rejects game try but has good trumps and fairly offensive hand.

4=Fit showing, offensive oriented but with some defense.

4=Totally offensive oriented hand, within the limits of not having preempted on the previous turn.

In general, the heart bids show the most offense and the least defense; the pass and redouble have the most defense and the least offense; the diamond bids are for the flexible hands.


Here, I evaluate this hand as a sure game and possible 5 level safety opposite a limit raise, so I choose 4 to bring partner into the picture and help him decide what to do if they bid 4.
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#16 User is offline   coyot 

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Posted 2005-July-22, 07:52

It all depends on meaning of pass.

If 3 is the weakest bid available, then pass could be used to let partner show his values and 3 can then be an attempt to help him with bidding over 4. This approach has the advantage (agreement required) that 4thlevel bids are splinters.
(These days, people will open very aggresively so the slam could still be possible despite the opponents' opener)

If pass is the weakest bid and 3 shows good trumps but no game interest, 3 is for game-try and 4 is for the 5thlevel decisions.
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#17 User is offline   mcphee 

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Posted 2005-July-22, 08:08

Most play this 2S bid to show a hand worthy of making a game invite in your suit. It basically shows limit values for H. Based on this information, bidding game is clear cut, it makes or goes down and I expect it to make most times.

We can hardly expect the opps to now be bidding 4S, unless they have something stronger in that coffee cup. My LHO passed over 2H and my RHO dbled 2S, what ever that means. If they elect to bid 4S over 4H you can bring out the cannon or make a F pass.

I can't agree that all 2 suited hands where you are 5-5 or longer will make a 2 suited cue bid. These 2 suited bids should be either weak or strong hands, not intermediate.

I do not see the value of being whimpy and making a game try with 3D. It seems to me that 4H has the most ways to win.
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#18 User is offline   coyot 

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Posted 2005-July-22, 08:19

mcphee, on Jul 22 2005, 09:08 AM, said:

We can hardly expect the opps to now be bidding 4S, unless they have something stronger in that coffee cup. My LHO passed over 2H and my RHO dbled 2S, what ever that means. If they elect to bid 4S over 4H you can bring out the cannon or make a F pass.

You never know. I've seen a ton of people pass with quite good hands (in shape terms).
Maybe your LHO has a spade raise that is too weak for 2 - and does not want to preempt (in case your side does not play the game) - but might be willing to sacrifice over 4 when partner gives him some encouragement...

Quote

I can't agree that all 2 suited hands where you are 5-5 or longer will make a 2 suited cue bid. These 2 suited bids should be either weak or strong hands, not intermediate.


Agree 100%. If you bid Michaels with any 5-5, your p will often have problems.
My approach is that your hand should be either weak enough or strong enough that with a reasonably good 8-10HCP, you'll want your partner to either sacrifice or bid a slam B))

If you need reasonably good p to make the game, overcall naturally.

Quote

I do not see the value of being whimpy and making a game try with 3D. It seems to me that 4H has the most ways to win.


either 3 or 4 bid would be IMHO better. You know you're going to play 4 if they let you - but if LHO wakes up and bids 4, you want your partner to know what your second suit is.
Edit: Back to the first quoted part: What cannon? If your partner happens to have 4card support, you're looking at 1.5-2.5 tricks in your hand. Your p with heart king does not guarantee 2 more tricks....
If you happen to have a diamond fit as well, opps might even make 4 doubled :P.
And if you choose the forcing pass, your p will be in the dark. Does his Kxxx in diamonds score a trick or not? He will be able to estimate the number of spade losers, but will know nothing about minors... 4 shows absolutely NOTHING. 3-4 shows 4 more cards...
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#19 User is offline   Al_U_Card 

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Posted 2005-July-22, 08:28

Scoring: MP


Not to forget that pard was a passed hand. He liked my "free" bid of 3D and raised to game. We were doubled and on the 4-0 split ended up down 2 for 1 out of 11 matchpoints. :P

I said that due to the 2S double, my hand had a value that he needed to know about if they bid on. My plan B was to pass and when they bid 4S, I would bid 5D as a 5H sac/lead director against an eventual 5S....... ah, the best laid schemes o' mice and men.... B)
The Grand Design, reflected in the face of Chaos...it's a fluke!
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#20 User is offline   coyot 

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Posted 2005-July-22, 08:32

Sounds like a good save against 4 :-).

You gave 2 spades, 1 club, heart king and what else?
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