[keylime]

I played this hand a couple of days ago but I just don't think I played it the best. I did make it, but didn't like it. The contract is 6NT via a long auction.

Scoring: IMP

Received the club two as opening lead, 4th best.

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I'd like to make this hand pure double dummy.

[reisig]

Might be more interesting if we knew the final contract.

[BurnKryten]

The contract is 6NT, as in the subject line.

[luke warm]

i think i'd just lead the ♠Q from my hand... iow, finesse west for one of the spade honors (play the 8 next)... alternatively i guess you can lead a spade to the ace and return one, hoping for H,x on the right.. i don't know which is better, but leading the queen reminds me of one of fred's pet lines

[Trumpace]

Seems like we need to play spades for one loser...

Run the Q. If it loses to the K, run the 8. I guess this would be around 87.5%

(75% for split honours, 12.5% for honours with one guy.. I hope the calculation is correct.)


There don't seem to be any squeeze possibilites which would improve the chances of some other line of play...

You said you wanted to analyze this double dummy: where are the other two hands? Or did you mean single dummy?

[keylime]

Basically my choice of words weren't "great" - was busy when I posted this.

The reason why I didn't like this line I took, was because the lead and the discards were strange <which I'll post>.

[Echognome]

Hearts give you 5 tricks always.
Diamonds and clubs are 2 tricks each.
So you need 3 tricks out of spades (1 loser).

Running the Q is 76%, losing only to KJ(x)(x)(x) on your right.

Not sure why we would run the hearts first as no squeezes seem likely.

[han]

Taking the double hook in spades is indeed the percentage play in the suit, and I don't see anything better. The only reason that I see for playing hearts first is that you can't pick up a 5-0 split on your right anymore if you lose a spade and a club comes back. However, if you can bring in 4 spade tricks then you don't need 5 heart tricks, so this is irrelevant.

With my intuition (or luck, as I would like to think ) it is impossible to draw information from their discards that get's you to a line of play that's more than 76%. More gifted players might make better use of the opponent's discards.

Trumpace, 75% for split honors is far from correct, it is probably closer to 51% (my own ballpark estimate). The 75% you are thinking off is the chance that righty has at least one of the honors, 3 out of 4 cases (but as others noted, it is a tiny bit more).

[xx1943]

Trumpace, on Jul 24 2005, 02:38 AM, said:

Run the Q. If it loses to the K, run the 8. I guess this would be around 87.5%

(75% for split honours, 12.5% for honours with one guy.. I hope the calculation is correct.)

Hi

Double finesse is the correct line. The chance of success is roughly 75% (At least 1 Honour with WEST) and exactly 76%.
Singleton J in one of the 2 hands is included in "1 of the honours with WEST"
This line loses in 4 of 16 cases, i.e. if EAST has KJxxx, KJxx, KJx or KJ


The alternate line play to the A and back to the Q is inferior, because you have to guess if you play the Q or the 8, if EAST plays low on the second round.
Each play is only 69,217%.
Say you decide to play the Q then you'll lose in 4 of 16 cases too. I. e.
KJxxx, KJxx,KJx and Kx with WEST.

Comparing the 2 lists of loosing distribution, you'll see the only difference is:
first line looses if KJ with EAST = 3,391%
second line loses with Kx with WEST = 10,174% (roughly 3 times as much)

For exact calculations with missing cards the missing cards calculator is very helpful.

Before trying the double finesses I would play a lot of hearts, just to see how the suit is distributed. Percentages change with every card played.


Al

[keylime]

K I'll tell how I started this hand.

I won the first club and played a small heart, everyone following. Then ran the other four hearts.

LHO discards on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th heart a winner the 5♦, 9♦, and the 2♠. RHO discards on the 4th and 5th winner the 4♣, and the 5♣.

[xx1943]

keylime, on Jul 24 2005, 11:23 AM, said:

K I'll tell how I started this hand.

I won the first club and played a small heart, everyone following. Then ran the other four hearts.

LHO discards on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th heart a winner the 5♦, 9♦, and the 2♠. RHO discards on the 4th and 5th winner the 4♣, and the 5♣.

Hi

after WESTs discard of of a low spade the odds change dramatically for line 2:
small to the A and back to the K, because 4 of the originally 16 possibilities are not possible anymore. I.e. West cannot have: K, J, KJ or void.

line 1 is now 75,2%
line 2 is now 88,3%


A complete other question is psychology. Why does WEST throw a spade? Is he very clever? Is he bluffing or double-bluffing.

If I didn't know this guy as a good player I would now play small spade to the A and small to the 8.


Regards

Al

[Fluffy]

run ♠8, you have some recoveries if ♠ is 0-5

[FrancesHinden]

As a general rule you shouldn't change your line simply because an opponent has played a particular card; only take into account holdings that are now impossible.

The auction is important, because LHO's choice of a spade discard becomes important. Was that in the knowledge we have a 5-3 spade fit, or with not knowledge at all?