Open or not?
#2
Posted 2012-November-13, 13:22
Never tell the same lie twice. - Elim Garek on the real moral of "The boy who cried wolf"
#3
Posted 2012-November-13, 13:31
#4
Posted 2012-November-13, 14:40
What is baby oil made of?
#5
Posted 2012-November-13, 14:57
5440 is seriously overrated.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#6
Posted 2012-November-13, 14:57
#7
Posted 2012-November-13, 15:05
#8
Posted 2012-November-13, 15:52
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#9
Posted 2012-November-13, 16:16
- billw55
#11
Posted 2012-November-13, 16:37
- billw55
#12
Posted 2012-November-14, 06:06
Much better than the typical balanced 11 HCP rubbish, which is nowadays opened by many routinely.
I suspect almost all on this forum would open
which is not better.
Rainer Herrmann
#13
Posted 2012-November-14, 10:52
rhm, on 2012-November-14, 06:06, said:
Much better than the typical balanced 11 HCP rubbish, which is nowadays opened by many routinely.
I suspect almost all on this forum would open
which is not better.
Rainer Herrmann
It's a lot better if we don't find a fit. Or if partner doubles something.
- billw55
#15
Posted 2012-November-15, 18:56
Never mislead in 2nd seat.
Never take undue risk 2nd seat unfav.
NO.
Trust demands integrity, balance and collaboration.
District 11
Unit 124
Steve Moese
#16
Posted 2012-November-16, 05:51
lalldonn, on 2012-November-14, 10:52, said:
"a lot" is an exaggeration. A tiny bit better I can agree.
The chances of finding a fit with 4=4=5=0 compared to 3=4=5=1 are substantially better, as are game chances.
The chances of finding at least an eight card fit with 4=4=5=0 is 89.27% and for a nine card fit it is still 44.4%.
Chances of finding no fit is less than having a ten card or better fit.
I am not claiming that Pass can not win. But there is reason to be optimistic here.
As can be seen from the comments in this thread compared to others, most people get aggressive with the wrong type of hands when it comes to opening bid requirements.
Rainer Herrmann
#17
Posted 2012-November-16, 10:42
rhm, on 2012-November-16, 05:51, said:
That is not at all clear. There are many reasons that could be the case. For example, after passing on this hand it will generally be easy to come in later so nothing may have been lost by passing, whereas on the "worse" hands that people open in other threads, it may be harder to come in later.
Lots of what you say is incomplete evidence. Yes game chances are better on 4450 than 3451, but do you know they are better on 4450 9 count compared to 3451 11 count? (I'm sure now that I brought it up, you will tell me...) Yes a fit is likely with 4450 but will you always get to a 5-3 diamond fit, or even want to play it? And how likely is a fit with 3451?
- billw55
#18
Posted 2012-November-16, 14:06
lalldonn, on 2012-November-16, 10:42, said:
This is always claimed when people choose Pass as their initial option. I do not share this view. Tempo is crucial in the bidding. Even if I could show my precise distribution after opponents bidding I prefer coming in first and giving opponents a problem to show their strength and distribution.
Quote
Evidence is almost always incomplete Otherwise there would hardly be anything to argue about.
I choose the 3451 11 count example hand, because a priory I evaluate it as roughly equivalent in value to the 4450 9 count. I agree that on defense I slightly prefer the 5431 11 count.
If I get a fit and we declare I have a preference for the 4450 (a big preference if played in spades).
Quote
With 3451 chances for at least an 8 card fit is 85.8% for a nine card fit 39%
Game chances for 4=4=5=0 is a priory 45% and for 3=4=5=1 33% , but this is over the whole HCP distribution.
Game chances for an 11 and 9 HCP hand in general over all shapes are 32% and 24%.
Rainer Herrmann
#19
Posted 2012-November-16, 16:58
- hrothgar
#20
Posted 2012-November-16, 19:07
rhm, on 2012-November-14, 06:06, said:
Much better than the typical balanced 11 HCP rubbish, which is nowadays opened by many routinely.
I suspect almost all on this forum would open
which is not better.
Rainer Herrmann
Not close to a borderline opening.