Posted 2014-July-27, 07:59
I'm inclined to bid 2♥. The heart suit is pretty shaggy to be doubling and then bidding hearts, and while I have an 18 count the ♦ A is four high card points but only one trick. Perhaps relevant, the contract of 3NT is a certain make, the contract of 4♥ could become difficult on a 4-1 split. A diamond lead, taken, and I duck a heart, a diamond comes back. If hearts are 3-2 I cannot go wrong, but if they are 4-1 I have to ruff else I lose four obvious tricks. Suppose 4-1. I ruff the diamond, now what? If I cash cash the heart ace, I think I am down. Obviously I cannot lead another trump, North will win, draw trump, lead a diamond. So have to go after my winners. But North holds off on ruffing clubs until the fourth club. He ruffs that, cashes a heart, clearing hearts in dummy, , and plays another diamond.
OK, so it appears that, to cater to a 4-1, the play must go: Win tghe diamond, duck a heart, ruff the next diamond, duck another heart. South shows out, as North wins and plays a spade. Am I ok? I am not so sure. I still cannot play the ace and another trump, diamonds are running, and if I just play the ace and then the blacks, then North can still hold off ruffing clubs until the fourth round. I cannot duck a third heart (!), this leaves me with a stiff Ace and no hearts in dummy when a diamond is led. If instead I leave two hearts out, North again ruffs the fourth club and plays his last heart putting me back in hand so that I eventually lose a spade.
Possibly I am wrong about the play, it happens, but the point is this: I have found partner with good values and three hearts, and still 4♥ is not exactly what you would call on ice. if, on the first round, I double and then later bid 3♥, a partner, holding decent values but stuck for a good bid, might very well raise to 4♥ holding something like Qx. He will expect, or at least hope for, better hearts from me. On many other hands raising to 4 with values and with Qx support is exactly what I want him to do after I double and then bid my hearts.
Now we probably are not going to find 3NT. That's just life, The above is not meant as a path to 3NT, it is meant as an explanation why I am hesitant to double and then bid hearts. The hand is not as good as it looks [Aside: " The music of Wagner is better than it sounds" was apparently first said by Edgar Nye, not Mark Twain] when four of my points are from a stiff Ace in their suit and my five card suit is Ace empty fifth.
Looking at both hands, there is another potential problem with doubling. If North has a little shape to go with his presumed four card diamond holding, he is about to call 4♦. When this is passed back to me I can of course call 4♥, but that strikes me as very scary. Or I can double again and hope like hell that partner does not bid 4♠.
All in all, I think that 2♥ has a lot going for it. On the given hand, we will get to 4♥, and we will make it if hearts are 3-2.
Ken
Do you double or bid 2 Hearts?