Posted 2025-June-17, 18:03
Shyam has it right.
We know that trump are not 5-0 because both opps follow to the opening lead. We are cold…indeed we missed 7N…if hearts are 3-2.
So we assume 4-1 hearts and consider what we can do about it.
One line is to pull two rounds of trump and then test hearts. The idea is that if hearts are 4-1, we are ok so long as the short heart hand also has short trump. One needn’t have a degree in probabilities to know that this is unlikely, so is there an alternative?
One possibility, which is much more likely than someone being 2-1 in the majors, when we’re missing 10 major suit cards….his partner would be 3=4…is to find the long hearts with 4+ clubs…maybe we can inflict a squeeze.
But we only have 11 top tricks in that scenario. 5 spades, 3 hearts and three tricks in the minors. A simple squeeze won’t work…we need to have 12 tricks to pull off a simple two suit squeeze.
Can we get 12 winners?
Yes…if we’re familiar with dummy reversal technique…where we ruff multiple times in the long trump holding. Here, if we score three ruffs in hand, and also score three trumps in North (one actually taken by declarer but the last two by the KQ) we have 12 tricks and a squeeze may materialize.
Now, David also noted this but his timing was poor. In essence, at least as I read his post, he committed to assuming a 3-2 trump break.
The correct line is to win the lead in hand…I’d suggest the Ace but either the Jack or 10 is ok.
Do NOT ruff clubs first. You want to conserve entries to dummy. Diamond ace, diamond ruff….cross to dummy in trump. This is the third critical play…the first was winning trick one in hand and the second was taking an early diamond ruff.
Why is crossing in trump important? Because you may find that trump are 4-1 in which case you abandon the dummy reversal and have to hope that hearts break.
Once trump are 3-2, ruff a second diamond and now play three rounds of clubs, ruffing in hand.
We are down to void AKxxx void void and dummy has K Qxx void x.
We lead to the heart Queen and draw the last trump. We hope that hearts are 3-2 or that if they’re 4-1: then the hand with 4 also had 4 or 5 clubs.
I don’t know and can’t be bothered to find out the relative probabilities but I am very confident that the dummy reversal/squeeze line is far superior to hoping that one opp is 2=1 in the majors.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari