[thepossum]

Hi there

Recent Robot MP hand and reached a strange stage of the auction where I was uncertain how to proceed. I ended up passing 4NT Blackwood. Others ended in 6D-1. Some managed to find the 6NT

I know I exagerrated my hand by a point but it looked a nice hand

I was so confused once we reached 4 diamonds

If some feel this belongs in the Robot forum feel free to move it

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[Gilithin]

You have not described the 3♣ bid but presumably it is normal Stayman given the continuation. After 4♦, 4NT from you should show a minimum without fit, which seems like a reasonable description. If you are playing with robots, you can mouseover the calls before you make them to find out their meanings. This can sometimes aid in finding the best way of describing the hand.

[Cyberyeti]

Playing with a human, 4♠ is a cue agreeing diamonds so 4N is blackwood. You should be bidding 4N directly. Passing Blackwood deserves partner to have a 16 count and be thinking small or grand.

[DavidKok]

In addition to the above I would recommend against upgrading into 2NT with a human partner. You are preempting your own auction, and make it difficult for responder to show two-suited hands. Taking it slow with such a hand rarely costs.

[pescetom]

 DavidKok, on 2023-July-27, 04:15, said:

In addition to the above I would recommend against upgrading into 2NT with a human partner. You are preempting your own auction, and make it difficult for responder to show two-suited hands. Taking it slow with such a hand rarely costs.

I agree not to avoid arbitary upgrades, although more to be precise about strength rather than to help Responder show shape.

[Cyberyeti]

 DavidKok, on 2023-July-27, 04:15, said:

In addition to the above I would recommend against upgrading into 2NT with a human partner. You are preempting your own auction, and make it difficult for responder to show two-suited hands. Taking it slow with such a hand rarely costs.

We split our 2N good 19/bad 19 and I think it's REALLY close which you call this one.

[DavidKok]

More of a confession than anything else, but I don't really get that. I understand a desire to upgrade 14's into a 15-17 range, especially if you are going to be stuck without a rebid on 1X-1NT. It's also just winning to open 1NT more often, though the classical focus on five card suits is not the statistically supported way of going about it. I just play 14-16, and struggle with the idea that I should frequently be upgrading 13-counts (I almost never do).
2NT is an entirely different beast. You are denying partner most of the valuable bidding space. Plus, with the modern tendency to respond to a 1m opening with basically any 5 points, an ace, or half an excuse of any kind, the risk of getting stranded at a low level is not a big issue. I think a standard 2NT opening is a noticeable system weakness, and a necessity to fix the notrump ladder. Voluntarily upgrading into it seems like it has more downsides than upsides.

[thepossum]

I had other reasons for bidding as I did. I was in something of a time pressured tourney situation (connection problems) and keen to get out of the hand with a positive - most were in 3NT+

A few bid the 6NT directly and I guess I could have bid 6NT over 6D but was hoping just to claim 4+2 quickly - sadly it wasn't an easy quick 12 tricks so I had to underclaim just to get to the last hand and was kicked out half way through the auction

[Gilithin]

 Cyberyeti, on 2023-July-27, 15:03, said:

We split our 2N good 19/bad 19 and I think it's REALLY close which you call this one.

I think it is clearly a good 19 within that framework.

[thepossum]

I felt it was a good 19 with all the leads covered - and didn't have much time for a leisurely auction

Sorry, yes 3C was Stayman

Also, just checking the traveller, North only has 11 points so its a good 19 - North actually only has one keycard too
But I should just have bid 3NT and moved on

[apollo1201]

How many tricks would you have made at 3CXX

[thepossum]

 apollo1201, on 2023-July-28, 07:37, said:

How many tricks would you have made at 3CXX

It would have scored better than slam - 5 down I think - but I was looking for a fast claim

[thepossum]

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oops sorry. the full hand Shame I didn't have more time

We even get a nice friendly Club lead

Fancy not having time to play it out, and having to underclaim just to get to the last hand

Question to the experts. Should East play its king or duck - maybe that is for the robot forum but also maybe good for NB
The major flaw in DD analysis is being up against best defence

[Gilithin]

 thepossum, on 2023-July-31, 18:09, said:

Should East play its king or duck

That's an easy one looking at all 4 hands but a little harder if partner might have led low from Q94. Or would you have raised clubs with that?

[apollo1201]

 thepossum, on 2023-July-31, 17:36, said:

It would have scored better than slam - 5 down I think - but I was looking for a fast claim

Actually you play it for a likely 10 tricks. So a bit less than slam. And an easiest claim, I think, that at 4NT

[thepossum]

Lol

sorry I was imagining the other team in 3Cxx, not me
Brain snap

Just the way the cards lay

[Cyberyeti]

It's an interesting hand you can make 12 tricks in NT with the 3-3 diamonds and 5-1 hearts allowing you to squeeze W, you are nowhere close to 12 if the red suit breaks are reversed.

[thepossum]

 Gilithin, on 2023-August-01, 01:10, said:

That's an easy one looking at all 4 hands but a little harder if partner might have led low from Q94. Or would you have raised clubs with that?

thx, I made a mistake thinking it was obvious to duck

I ran a sim and after ducking it was 12 tricks (no variance at all) and with the K a chance of 10-13 tricks - and I couldn't really tell if the average was above or below 12 (slightly above)

Not how I expected. I ran loads of samples and no variance at all after ducking - could be a bug

I know its probably only interesting to me and not expecting any attempts at replication

Chance of <12 tricks is small but positive if you play the King, and 0 if you duck
Chance of>12 tricks is positive if you play the King, and 0 if you duck
Average score slightly above 12 if you play the king, exactly 12 if you duck



Maybe bug There was a bug but nothing affects the above. Chance of overtrick more than chance of <12 and I have run dozens of samples of thousands of hands ducking and get exactly 12 tricks on every hand Maybe not a surprise to experts but strange results from sims always make me nervous