I asked a similar question recently about strategy at MPs between staying in game and bidding slam.
Here is a similar scenario which occurred recently in a small IMP tourney
I will post the hand in a little while but a crude post hoc simulation of the scenario has suggested to me that the probability of the major slam is of the order 60% and game was near certainty (eg >98.5%). Assuming I could work that out in my head how do I then make the decision in an average field of how to proceed. Is 60% reasonable or not
You estimate that p% of the field will bid slam and (1-p)% will bid and make game
You decide (without the probability) after a keycard ask, and a few concerns about 1 missing keycard, and too many losers in your hand to stop in 5. Note it was likely to be a 4-4 H fit and hands were fairly flat with possible spade shortage in North and both hands roughly in 14-16 range, your is 17

The hand is played and you score -5 IMPs. Those who bid and made slam scored 9 IMPs. Both sides vulnerable. Ignoring two outliers who bid and made a different (minor) slam P was around 1/3 and Q around 2/3. 100% of people made 12 tricks! Ratio 13:2:28
What are the considerations at IMPs. I nearly went for it but didnt.
Hand will be posted soon
regards P