Help
The play:
6♣ led (2nd from 3 or 4 small, top of doubleton), E takes the ♣AQ W following with the 2 then plays a diamond.
Suggestions ?
Page 1 of 1
Tale of two declarers Which was right
#1
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 14,206
- Joined: 2009-July-13
- Location:England
Posted 2017-April-03, 16:43
The play:
6♣ led (2nd from 3 or 4 small, top of doubleton), E takes the ♣AQ W following with the 2 then plays a diamond.
Suggestions ?
#2
- VIP Member
-
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 6,971
- Joined: 2009-November-14
- Gender:Male
- Location:Houston, TX
Posted 2017-April-03, 21:58
Cyberyeti, on 2017-April-03, 16:43, said:
The play:
6♣ led (2nd from 3 or 4 small, top of doubleton), E takes the ♣AQ W following with the 2 then plays a diamond.
Suggestions ?
Due to the risk of ♣ ruff I'd go with ♦A, cash ♠ AK and make with or without an over trick depending on ♥ finesse.
If ♠ Q did not drop, then I need ♥ finesse anyway since i already lost 2 tricks and will lose a spade.
The reason I chose this line is, I expect E to hold doubleton club. With 4 he could give his pd a ruff, with 3 card clubs he would not have cashed the ♣A before he played ♦
Most important thing in my line is that E is coming from pass and we already saw him with AQ ♣. My line loses when E also has ♦K+♥K which makes him to have passed with 12 hcp.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
#3
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 2,366
- Joined: 2012-March-18
- Gender:Male
- Location:Illinois
- Interests:Bridge, Golf, Soccer
Posted 2017-April-06, 15:22
I'm with Mr. Ace on this one.
The basic lines are either finesse the ♦ queen or use Mr. Ace's line.
If you finesse it's about a 55% chance if you believe East's ♣ are doubleton or 50% if Clubs break 3-3.
If you play ♦ A and ♠ AK, you always make anytime the ♠ Q falls. That comes out to be about 40% of 3-2 breaks (about 27%), 20% of the 4-1 break (another 6%). That totals up to about 33%. In addition, you also make if the ♠ Q doesn't fall and the ♥ finesse works with ♥ 4-3 (about 21%), with 5-2 ♥ if spades are 3-2 (about 7%) plus some additional amount that the long trumps are in the hand with the long ♥. That comes out to about a 61-62% chance of success.
The basic lines are either finesse the ♦ queen or use Mr. Ace's line.
If you finesse it's about a 55% chance if you believe East's ♣ are doubleton or 50% if Clubs break 3-3.
If you play ♦ A and ♠ AK, you always make anytime the ♠ Q falls. That comes out to be about 40% of 3-2 breaks (about 27%), 20% of the 4-1 break (another 6%). That totals up to about 33%. In addition, you also make if the ♠ Q doesn't fall and the ♥ finesse works with ♥ 4-3 (about 21%), with 5-2 ♥ if spades are 3-2 (about 7%) plus some additional amount that the long trumps are in the hand with the long ♥. That comes out to about a 61-62% chance of success.
#4
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 14,206
- Joined: 2009-July-13
- Location:England
Posted 2017-April-06, 16:13
rmnka447, on 2017-April-06, 15:22, said:
I'm with Mr. Ace on this one.
The basic lines are either finesse the ♦ queen or use Mr. Ace's line.
If you finesse it's about a 55% chance if you believe East's ♣ are doubleton or 50% if Clubs break 3-3.
If you play ♦ A and ♠ AK, you always make anytime the ♠ Q falls. That comes out to be about 40% of 3-2 breaks (about 27%), 20% of the 4-1 break (another 6%). That totals up to about 33%. In addition, you also make if the ♠ Q doesn't fall and the ♥ finesse works with ♥ 4-3 (about 21%), with 5-2 ♥ if spades are 3-2 (about 7%) plus some additional amount that the long trumps are in the hand with the long ♥. That comes out to about a 61-62% chance of success.
The basic lines are either finesse the ♦ queen or use Mr. Ace's line.
If you finesse it's about a 55% chance if you believe East's ♣ are doubleton or 50% if Clubs break 3-3.
If you play ♦ A and ♠ AK, you always make anytime the ♠ Q falls. That comes out to be about 40% of 3-2 breaks (about 27%), 20% of the 4-1 break (another 6%). That totals up to about 33%. In addition, you also make if the ♠ Q doesn't fall and the ♥ finesse works with ♥ 4-3 (about 21%), with 5-2 ♥ if spades are 3-2 (about 7%) plus some additional amount that the long trumps are in the hand with the long ♥. That comes out to about a 61-62% chance of success.
You have a 9 card spade fit (6-3) so working out how the remaining 5 split is not the prime concern.
I was with Mr Ace too, as was the declarer at the other table, unfortunately partner wasn't, and he was at the wheel.
#5
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 2,366
- Joined: 2012-March-18
- Gender:Male
- Location:Illinois
- Interests:Bridge, Golf, Soccer
Posted 2017-April-07, 13:47
Thanks Cyberyeti. Getting old, I'm looking at a 9 card fit and seeing 8. Grrrr.
So you're looking at success 40% of the time when ♠ break 2-2 plus 25% of the time that they break 3-1 (about 12.5%) when the ♠ Q falls. In addition, you also have success when when the ♠ Q doesn't fall -- if ♥ break 4-3 with the finesse working (about 15%), ♥ break 5-2 with the finesse on and ♠ break 3-1, or if ♥ break 5-2 with 4 ♠ in the long hand. That's probably something like a 75-80% chance of success.
So you're looking at success 40% of the time when ♠ break 2-2 plus 25% of the time that they break 3-1 (about 12.5%) when the ♠ Q falls. In addition, you also have success when when the ♠ Q doesn't fall -- if ♥ break 4-3 with the finesse working (about 15%), ♥ break 5-2 with the finesse on and ♠ break 3-1, or if ♥ break 5-2 with 4 ♠ in the long hand. That's probably something like a 75-80% chance of success.
Page 1 of 1