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The play:
6♣ led (2nd from 3 or 4 small, top of doubleton), E takes the ♣AQ W following with the 2 then plays a diamond.
Suggestions ?
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Tale of two declarers Which was right
#1
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Posted 2017-April-03, 16:43
The play:
6♣ led (2nd from 3 or 4 small, top of doubleton), E takes the ♣AQ W following with the 2 then plays a diamond.
Suggestions ?
#2
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Posted 2017-April-03, 21:58
Cyberyeti, on 2017-April-03, 16:43, said:
The play:
6♣ led (2nd from 3 or 4 small, top of doubleton), E takes the ♣AQ W following with the 2 then plays a diamond.
Suggestions ?
Due to the risk of ♣ ruff I'd go with ♦A, cash ♠ AK and make with or without an over trick depending on ♥ finesse.
If ♠ Q did not drop, then I need ♥ finesse anyway since i already lost 2 tricks and will lose a spade.
The reason I chose this line is, I expect E to hold doubleton club. With 4 he could give his pd a ruff, with 3 card clubs he would not have cashed the ♣A before he played ♦
Most important thing in my line is that E is coming from pass and we already saw him with AQ ♣. My line loses when E also has ♦K+♥K which makes him to have passed with 12 hcp.
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"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
#3
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Posted 2017-April-06, 15:22
I'm with Mr. Ace on this one.
The basic lines are either finesse the ♦ queen or use Mr. Ace's line.
If you finesse it's about a 55% chance if you believe East's ♣ are doubleton or 50% if Clubs break 3-3.
If you play ♦ A and ♠ AK, you always make anytime the ♠ Q falls. That comes out to be about 40% of 3-2 breaks (about 27%), 20% of the 4-1 break (another 6%). That totals up to about 33%. In addition, you also make if the ♠ Q doesn't fall and the ♥ finesse works with ♥ 4-3 (about 21%), with 5-2 ♥ if spades are 3-2 (about 7%) plus some additional amount that the long trumps are in the hand with the long ♥. That comes out to about a 61-62% chance of success.
The basic lines are either finesse the ♦ queen or use Mr. Ace's line.
If you finesse it's about a 55% chance if you believe East's ♣ are doubleton or 50% if Clubs break 3-3.
If you play ♦ A and ♠ AK, you always make anytime the ♠ Q falls. That comes out to be about 40% of 3-2 breaks (about 27%), 20% of the 4-1 break (another 6%). That totals up to about 33%. In addition, you also make if the ♠ Q doesn't fall and the ♥ finesse works with ♥ 4-3 (about 21%), with 5-2 ♥ if spades are 3-2 (about 7%) plus some additional amount that the long trumps are in the hand with the long ♥. That comes out to about a 61-62% chance of success.
#4
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Posted 2017-April-06, 16:13
rmnka447, on 2017-April-06, 15:22, said:
I'm with Mr. Ace on this one.
The basic lines are either finesse the ♦ queen or use Mr. Ace's line.
If you finesse it's about a 55% chance if you believe East's ♣ are doubleton or 50% if Clubs break 3-3.
If you play ♦ A and ♠ AK, you always make anytime the ♠ Q falls. That comes out to be about 40% of 3-2 breaks (about 27%), 20% of the 4-1 break (another 6%). That totals up to about 33%. In addition, you also make if the ♠ Q doesn't fall and the ♥ finesse works with ♥ 4-3 (about 21%), with 5-2 ♥ if spades are 3-2 (about 7%) plus some additional amount that the long trumps are in the hand with the long ♥. That comes out to about a 61-62% chance of success.
The basic lines are either finesse the ♦ queen or use Mr. Ace's line.
If you finesse it's about a 55% chance if you believe East's ♣ are doubleton or 50% if Clubs break 3-3.
If you play ♦ A and ♠ AK, you always make anytime the ♠ Q falls. That comes out to be about 40% of 3-2 breaks (about 27%), 20% of the 4-1 break (another 6%). That totals up to about 33%. In addition, you also make if the ♠ Q doesn't fall and the ♥ finesse works with ♥ 4-3 (about 21%), with 5-2 ♥ if spades are 3-2 (about 7%) plus some additional amount that the long trumps are in the hand with the long ♥. That comes out to about a 61-62% chance of success.
You have a 9 card spade fit (6-3) so working out how the remaining 5 split is not the prime concern.
I was with Mr Ace too, as was the declarer at the other table, unfortunately partner wasn't, and he was at the wheel.
#5
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Posted 2017-April-07, 13:47
Thanks Cyberyeti. Getting old, I'm looking at a 9 card fit and seeing 8. Grrrr.
So you're looking at success 40% of the time when ♠ break 2-2 plus 25% of the time that they break 3-1 (about 12.5%) when the ♠ Q falls. In addition, you also have success when when the ♠ Q doesn't fall -- if ♥ break 4-3 with the finesse working (about 15%), ♥ break 5-2 with the finesse on and ♠ break 3-1, or if ♥ break 5-2 with 4 ♠ in the long hand. That's probably something like a 75-80% chance of success.
So you're looking at success 40% of the time when ♠ break 2-2 plus 25% of the time that they break 3-1 (about 12.5%) when the ♠ Q falls. In addition, you also have success when when the ♠ Q doesn't fall -- if ♥ break 4-3 with the finesse working (about 15%), ♥ break 5-2 with the finesse on and ♠ break 3-1, or if ♥ break 5-2 with 4 ♠ in the long hand. That's probably something like a 75-80% chance of success.
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