[Fluffy]

Nice analysis Timo, I Wouldn't even consider Q1 as it gives up on any squeeze.

Q2 also gives up on some squeeze. If LHO returns a spade we are forced to pitch a club early and lead ♣Q. This is fine when the player with 3 clubs has 4 diamonds or LHO is forced to cover ♣Q, otherwise to execute the squeeze we must give up on finding ♦10 doubleton. When LHO can return a heart instead it is worse, now we can only squeeze LHO in the minors, but it requires giving up on ♦10x as well.

Leading the Jack seems to tangle the diamond suit, but as we saw early ♦10x will often not be a real option as we will play for squeeze anyway. LHO wins and the worse he can return is a heart, this kills dummy's entries and we are basically at the same position as Q2, being able to squeeze only LHO. But if he returns a spade or diamond instead we can pick on various endinds, but I could see none that was a perfect ending for any opponent (except for a blind criss-cross, which also needs to guess who).

So basically only half squeezes. I think the 4-1 clubs favouring ♦K10 onside is what breaks things in favour or leading the Jack, but the small extra squeeze chances when LHO has 2♥ and 2♣ are also worth considering.

[Kaitlyn S]

Fluffy, on 2016-September-30, 16:20, said:

Nice analysis Timo,

This time it was obvious that Timo = MrAce from the subsequent discussion, but when it's not obvious, is there a way I can see what name goes with what handle?

[MrAce]

Kaitlyn S, on 2016-September-30, 16:57, said:

This time it was obvious that Timo = MrAce from the subsequent discussion, but when it's not obvious, is there a way I can see what name goes with what handle?

I think you just need to get to know people and their name by time, unless their handle is not already telling.

Phil=Phil Clayton
Fluffy=Gonzalo Goded
Cherdano =Arend Bayer
Jlogic or JLall = Justin Lall
Hrothgar=Richard Willey
Jdonn=Joshua Donn
MrAce=Timo but my real name is Bobstrothelgesace!

[Fluffy]

Asking is fine, people are willing to help.

[nullve]

Why not take the club finesse at trick 3 (after cashing the ♥A and seeing that both opps follow)? The point is:

* If there are 4 diamond tricks available, taking the club finesse can never cost the contract.
* If there are at most 3 diamond tricks available, we'll need to take the club finesse at some point anyway.
* The number of diamond tricks we need depends on how the club suit behaves. (There are 4 possibilites to consider, in terms of who has the ♣K and whether clubs split (32).)

[MrAce]

nullve, on 2016-October-01, 05:40, said:

Why not take the club finesse at trick 3 (after cashing the ♥A and seeing that both opps follow)? The point is:

* If there are 4 diamond tricks available, taking the club finesse can never cost the contract.
* If there are at most 3 diamond tricks available, we'll need to take the club finesse at some point anyway.
* The number of diamond tricks we need depends on how the club suit behaves. (There are 4 possibilites to consider, in terms of who has the ♣K and whether clubs split (32).)

Because when ♦K is on, when you take the club finesse first you are reducing your chances of making 3 ♣ tricks. You are losing to all 4-1 stiff K and Kxxx with East and Kxxxx with East. You are dropping about 17% of your odds to make 3 club tricks

[661_Pete]

Well - without looking at any of the other answers:

9 top tricks. Possible two more in clubs if the King is with East or they break 3-2. I don't like that club finesse though: even if it wins the cards have to lie very nicely for four tricks.

And I don't think there's a squeeze on. Even if I duck the spade lead.

So I'd simply go for the diamond finesse. If it fails - well you can still try for a lucky lie of the cards in clubs.

[msjennifer]

No.I don't think this is a sure tricks problem.A small diamond from North and if easts 10 appears,finesse the Q and if it does win then there are no further problems.If the 10 has not appeared and the Q wins switch to clubs and hope they break 3/2.There is no fool proof play.

[nullve]

MrAce, on 2016-October-01, 07:59, said:

Because when ♦K is on, when you take the club finesse first you are reducing your chances of making 3 ♣ tricks. You are losing to all 4-1 stiff K and Kxxx with East and Kxxxx with East.

Yes, unless losing a club trick also means that my line is losing.

The cases where I "lose":

a) LHO has the stiff ♣K
b) RHO has the stiff ♣K
c) RHO has ♣Kxxx(x)

In all cases we can assume that the ♦K is onside, or else all realistic lines will fail. But then a) and c) aren't really bad for me at all, as RHO will eventualy be squeezed in the minor suits. And b) isn't necessarily that bad for me either, since on many layouts it will be possible to get 3 diamond tricks without letting opps in. That might actually be the most likely outcome, as RHO not only is favourite to have diamond length but per hypothesis also has the ♦K.

[ncohen]

Good discussion.
The standard way of playing clubs is best -- to A, then to QJ. The posters have pointed out that running the Q works against 5 4-1 splits, but the boring normal play works against 6 -- any of 5 singletons in W, singleton K in E.

[ncohen]

Another idea on playing clubs when D finesse wins:

Lead to Q or J first, without cashing A. If E plays 9 or 10, run the remaining honor from S next. This has the possibility of picking up 7 4-1 club holdings -- any singleton but K in W, singleton K, 10, 9 in E. The success is reduced by an expert E who falsecards 10 or 9 from K109x, and from beginner E who plays the 9 or 10 to "force" the Q from S.

[MrAce]

nullve, on 2016-October-01, 10:15, said:

Yes, unless losing a club trick also means that my line is losing.

The cases where I "lose":

a) LHO has the stiff ♣K
b) RHO has the stiff ♣K
c) RHO has ♣Kxxx(x)

In all cases we can assume that the ♦K is onside, or else all realistic lines will fail. But then a) and c) aren't really bad for me at all, as RHO will eventualy be squeezed in the minor suits. And b) isn't necessarily that bad for me either, since on many layouts it will be possible to get 3 diamond tricks without letting opps in. That might actually be the most likely outcome, as RHO not only is favourite to have diamond length but per hypothesis also has the ♦K.

+1


Nice!
I never said losing a ♣ means your line is losing, since you did not mention a line. You said try clubs first and play diamonds accordingly. And this reduces your chances by 17% excluding squeeze.
I think the line you just suggested is the best so far when ♦K is on.

[MrAce]

ncohen, on 2016-October-01, 12:11, said:

Lead to Q or J first, without cashing A. If E plays 9 or 10, run the remaining honor from S next. This has the possibility of picking up 7 4-1 club holdings -- any singleton but K in W, singleton K, 10, 9 in E. The success is reduced by an expert E who falsecards 10 or 9 from K109x, and from beginner E who plays the 9 or 10 to "force" the Q from S.

How on earth are you planning to pick 3 ♣ tricks when E has stiff T or 9 ? Forget about false carding, assume you see their hands and make 3 ♣ tricks please when E has stiff 9 or T.

KT8x-9
K98x-T

[Phil]

My partner played this and actually did start ♣Q, covered (but the JACK has to be a much better card).

At the table, I thought, club to Ace, club back was best, but that clearly isn't the case.

[zillahandp]

It seems to me Caitlynne is spot on, I do not see how leading the knave cane be right as it will be covered or lose, except. On bbo! So two spades fivehearts and two da and a club is still not enough. We needto play clubs for no losers , if we cannot then we need d finesse so play clubs first. Now its a standard play you all know if we lose one then we need d finesse

[Phil]

zillahandp, on 2016-October-01, 16:13, said:

It seems to me Caitlynne is spot on, I do not see how leading the knave cane be right as it will be covered or lose, except. On bbo! So two spades fivehearts and two da and a club is still not enough. We needto play clubs for no losers , if we cannot then we need d finesse so play clubs first. Now its a standard play you all know if we lose one then we need d finesse

If LHO has ♣K9x it can be quite expensive to cover the J if partner has Qx.

[zillahandp]

Phil if! But if not?

[Phil]

zillahandp, on 2016-October-01, 16:20, said:

Phil if! But if not?

If LHo does not cover, we are a tempo ahead. LHO probably does not have Kx, KT8 or KT98. We cross to a heart and hook a diamond. Our squeeze chances are much better too.

You just aren't going to get any useful information if it starts ♣Q, K, A.

[zillahandp]

No phil the only chance of four club tricks is a stiff king on your left then finesse against 10,9 on right, however unlikely then you do not need d finesse so small to Ac, and small to Q assuming it does not drop king on first round the we need two diamonds so chance is 50% plus a tiny bit for singleton k of clubs, if clubs split badly and we need three d tricks the you have to play for Kx on your right. Good luck in the Ryder cup.

[zillahandp]

By the way losing a club will rectify the count whatever good that may do!