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wank, on 2016-March-21, 09:58, said:
As for the expectation from passing versus bidding on, I assess the former as having a better return on average non-vul. You should devote your time to proving me wrong.
It's obviously impossible to 'prove' you wrong, but I think you are wrong.
You want to pass if partner has some 10-count with 5 spades that will pass 2NT.
Any time partner has six spades, I think it will be percentage to be bidding on because he is strong enough not to start with a double then bid spades non-forcing (which he isn't going to do with the 5251 11-count that you are worried about).
Your hand basically isn't that bad. If partner has a game force, I would expect to make game. Boring hands like QJxxx Ax KQ109x x (yes I know about the cunning diamond pips) will make 3NT in practice. QJ10xxx Ax AQxx x is a perfectly acceptable 4S contract.
To me, that makes the odds on pass very poor at imps.
Give yourself A QJxxx KJ Q10xxx and I have far more sympathy with passing, even though 3NT is still likely odds on if we bid it.