[1eyedjack]

Well, it is make my mind up time. What to do? So many choices.

[kenberg]

1eyedjack, on 2016-June-23, 14:57, said:

Well, it is make my mind up time. What to do? So many choices.

Damn, I was going to tell you, but now it's too late. Well, the pub is still open, have one on me.

Perhaps an outsider shouldn't joke. I do wish you all the best.

And now that the voting is done, I hope you all stay in. I understand that there are problems, but I hope you stay in. We will know soon.

[Cyberyeti]

The exit poll was 52-48 remain, could get interesting

[shyams]

Shocking!

Despite most opinion polls indicating a statistically sizable win for Remain, the initial results say Britain is voting to LEAVE!

GBP is sinking like a rock --- down to 1.43 from 1.50 at 10:00pm when polls closed.

[Cyberyeti]

shyams, on 2016-June-23, 17:20, said:

Shocking!

Despite most opinion polls indicating a statistically sizable win for Remain, the initial results say Britain is voting to LEAVE!

GBP is sinking like a rock --- down 1.43 from 1.50 at 10:00pm when polls closed.

I hope you mean "down TO 1.43" rather than down to 0.07

[shyams]

Cyberyeti, on 2016-June-23, 17:33, said:

I hope you mean "down TO 1.43" rather than down to 0.07

Yes, corrected. Multi-tasking!

[shyams]

More madness!

A BBC reporter in a location expected to vote 50-50 said on live TV that the officials in her area expect 70% votes in favour of leave!

[shyams]

Was the entire population giving false responses to Opinion Pollsters? Or are the first few results a quirk?

Can't decide -- markets going crazy. Someone in the US talking about chances of a 10-year long depression in UK and the Eurozone if there is a Brexit.

[shyams]

shyams, on 2016-June-23, 05:26, said:

Fortunately, all opinion polls indicate that Remain is likely to be the outcome of today's referendum (which reminds me, I still have to vote!)I found this particular snippet very interesting! From the Guardian (see update of 12:04pm)

Quote

Most of the key figures in the campaign, including David Cameron, Michael Gove, Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon and Nigel Farage cast their votes early. As he left a polling station in Islington, Corbyn said: “The bookies usually get it right [but] they got it wrong on me big time last year, didn’t they?”

Is he suggesting that deep inside he wishes that the Leave campaign wins? His own vote is obviously secret, but I have a sneaky feeling he voted "Leave"

If this goes bad, I blame the Labour Leadership!

[hrothgar]

I am trying to stay awake late enough to see a reliable result

[shyams]

hrothgar, on 2016-June-23, 18:30, said:

I am trying to stay awake late enough to see a reliable result

I plan to stay awake till 4 am at least. If it is too close to call at 4am, I will brew another pot of coffee! This decision has a HUGE impact on my/our life, but I get only ONE vote.

[hrothgar]

shyams, on 2016-June-23, 18:32, said:

I plan to stay awake till 4 am at least. If it is too close to call at 4am, I will brew another pot of coffee! This decision has a HUGE impact on my/our life, but I get only ONE vote.

Hmm. I normally get up at 4:00 am. That might be a better plan

[rogerclee]

Betting markets have just placed brexit as being above 50% probability, compared to a low of 29:2 near the end of the US trading day. FTSE 100 futures touching below -5% for the first time today. Edit: Now -6%

[shyams]

At 2:02 am, the betting odds moved in favour of Leave.

[shyams]

~@@!"!:*!)%%%####

The BBC Chief political commentator just said on TV that most senior campaigners now expect the final result to be LEAVE! That's it!

Time to go to bed, and wake up to a "new world" tomorrow.

[shyams]

GBP:USD at 1.41 (vs. 1.50 at 10:30pm last night). It's probably going to get much worse in the next couple of hours.

[shyams]

shyams, on 2016-June-22, 12:34, said:

OK, here is a digression from the discussion on political/economic "justifications" to a "what-if" discussion.

Financial markets have priced in ‘Remain’ outcome in Brexit vote – but what if they are wrong?
Link here: (click)

The authors are making a very valid point, viz the financial markets have (erroneously) overpriced the likelihood of Remain. The markets' move to an eventual ‘Remain’ result is likely to be positive but muted. Whereas, if the eventual vote is 'Leave', the markets are likely to crash like crazy!

As per the article, "... estimates of a rally in sterling to $1.50 if we stay (ie, up 3 cents), while a fall to $1.20 if we leave (down 27 cents from a current $1.47).”

Interesting! Hopefully, we won't uncover that financial markets have got it wrong.

A very prescient article by the author.
At 10pm last night (based on final Opinion polls), Sterling jumped to 1.50 (up approx. 3 cents). A few minutes ago, it crashed below 1.39 and we are only 1/3rd of the way through the counting. More risk to the Sterling to come? Grrrrr!

[shyams]

shyams, on 2016-June-23, 18:26, said:

If this goes bad, I blame the Labour Leadership!

This is it. Labour leaders are pointing fingers are each other for the debacle. They are lining up on TV to blame everyone, including their own colleagues.
What a bunch of idiots!

[Vampyr]

Did not think this would actually happen.

[onoway]

Sounds a bit as though someone should have told Cameron not to ask the question unless he would be content with whatever the answer was. Apparently he also didn't think it would happen. It's going to be an interesting time in Europe and in the British Isles for the next while. Good luck to you all.