[m1cha]

A friend asked me how to bid this hand on the NS axis, and while that question is interesting in itself, I find the even more interesting problems on the EW axis:

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1♠ = 5 cards
2♥ = 5 cards, 11+ points
Matchpoints, if it matters.

Will you interfere here, and if you do, what's your bid?

I will post the full hand and some follow-up questions later (probably tomorrow).

[Jinksy]

I'll bid 4N for the minors. I don't know if I've made my final decision yet, but there's a lot of ways it can go so I won't try to explore the branches..

[Vampyr]

Jinksy, on 2015-July-11, 17:45, said:

I'll bid 4N for the minors. I don't know if I've made my final decision yet, but there's a lot of ways it can go so I won't try to explore the branches..

The opps don't necessarily have a fit. You could get your head handed to you in 5m when they are not making anything. I bid 2NT and await developments. Since this is matchpoints, I think that doing something is 100%.

[Jinksy]

I can't prove they have a fit, but so what? It's very likely they do, and this is a game of percentages. I'm more worried about pushing them into a slam they wouldn't otherwise have found than going for a large penalty, but not so worried that it's going to stop me bidding.

[mike777]

I will try pass, conservative.

Perhaps this many gain if the opp do not know how the suits are breaking, perhaps not.

expect many to try 2nt or even a few 4nt.

[wank]

obviously if you bid you bid 2nt. yeah i'd bid. a similar 5-5 hand would be nowhere near a bid.

[echo25]

Why 4NT if we can 4S? It will be easier for partner to decide to defend 5M with 6m or not.

[wank]

what's all this discussion about 4nt or equivalent? it would be absolutely psychotic. you're totally minimum or even sub-minimum for a 2nt bid.

[wank]

Jinksy, on 2015-July-11, 18:39, said:

I can't prove they have a fit, but so what? It's very likely they do, and this is a game of percentages.

yes they probably do have a fit, but the most likely place is spades where the average distribution is 6-5-2-0 around the table. instead of bidding partner's hand for him, try describing yours at a sensible level and if he has 8 minor cards he'll know what to do just as well as if he had 10 major cards.

[Jinksy]

wank, on 2015-July-12, 04:59, said:

yes they probably do have a fit, but the most likely place is spades where the average distribution is 6-5-2-0 around the table.

On what grounds is it most likely spades or is that the average dist? Neither seems obvious to me.

[slothy]

Should ask my ex mother-in-law..

She interfered in everything.

[m1cha]

Thank you all for contributing. Well then, the bid of the week is 4NT. I'm not claiming it is generally the best bid with the East hand. I'm just saying 4NT is (probably!) the successful bid on this particular board, and this is a particular board, otherwise I wouldn't post it in this forum. And 4NT is what may partner make bid and play 7♣X and get a good score even if (or especially if) on all other tables NS just play 4♥. Do I have your attention ?

This is the full hand:

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The bidding is what I believe how the bidding should go in a system close to Standard American.
1♠ = 5 cards
2♥ = 5 cards, 11+ points
3♥ = support, slam interest (otherwise 2♠ or 4♥)
4♥ = close to minimum (perhaps some people cue bid 4♦ here?)
4NT = RKCB
5♥ = 2 KCs, no ♥Q
6♥ = one KC missing
As South I have a 4-loser hand, so I have definite slam interest opposite a near-opening-strength partner. I'm interested in exactly 3 cards: ♣A, ♦A, ♥K, so I ask for KCs. Since partner has two of these cards, I think slam should have a probability near 80 %.

Now there are two things I don't know how to handle with this board.

Q1: If I am South and East bids 2NT, I probably bid 4NT right away. But what if East bids 4NT over 2♥, can I still ask for KCs? Is there an agreement that "double" is Blackwood if the opponents bid an artificial 4NT or anything like this?

Q2: The slam is down when East leads a ♣, West takes the ♣A and switches to ♠. Let's assume East comes to the conclusion that this is the way to play (which is perhaps far from clear with these two kings, but anyway), then what should East lead to make Partner switch to ♠?

[ArtK78]

The fact that 4NT is the successful bid on this hand (or might be the successful bid on this hand) doesn't change the fact that it is, as Wank so delicately put it, psychotic.

2NT is plenty. Passing is probably better than 4NT.

[glynmoir]

Perhaps the answer to the defensive question is that NT is the wrong bid (or less accurate). 2 ♠ or 4 ♠ should get the void message across.

[Jinksy]

ArtK78, on 2015-July-12, 07:51, said:

The fact that 4NT is the successful bid on this hand (or might be the successful bid on this hand) doesn't change the fact that it is, as Wank so delicately put it, psychotic.

It's been a while, but I'm playing my 'you have to actually give an argument rather than just saying something is terrible' card. I might be missing something, but both the assertions that the opps' fit is 'probably' spades - when that's the only one of their two suits that they've eschewed the chance to raise - and that the 'average' spade dist is 6520 - when the a priori odds against that dist are lower than eg 6430 (or 6340), which looks perfectly consistent with the bidding - sound fishy to me.

[wank]

Jinksy, on 2015-July-12, 08:40, said:

It's been a while, but I'm playing my 'you have to actually give an argument rather than just saying something is terrible' card. I might be missing something, but both the assertions that the opps' fit is 'probably' spades - when that's the only one of their two suits that they've eschewed the chance to raise - and that the 'average' spade dist is 6520 - when the a priori odds against that dist are lower than eg 6430 (or 6340), which looks perfectly consistent with the bidding - sound fishy to me.

with almost all hands with 4 spades responder will have supported. with many hands with 3 spades responder will have supported.

you have 2 more hearts than spades.

but no it wasn't supposed to be mathematically exact.

[m1cha]

From the point of view of East: We are weak, the distribution is unbalanced, so we are playing Law of Total Tricks. This seems strange because partner hasn't promised anything yet. But with 6-5 in the minors, we have a good chance of an 8-card fit to play on the two-level. Plus 1 level for white against red plus 1 level on the partscore range while opponents probably have game, if we stretch it. This is certainly enough for 2NT (or 2♠, for that matter). 4NT I find over-optimistic but not psychic (which is certainly the word wank wanted to use ). And I don't think it's a psych because after "1♠ p 2♥", when the opponents have shown 23+ points and are very likely to have 26+, everyone should realize we are not talking points here, we are talking distribution.
And if South bids 3♥ over 2NT, I jump to 5♣ as West. Or dunno, perhaps I wait and bid 7♣ if they voluntarily reach 6♥.

[Jinksy]

wank, on 2015-July-12, 10:06, said:

with almost all hands with 4 spades responder will have supported. with many hands with 3 spades responder will have supported.

This is why it seems more likely to me they have a heart fit.

That said, I think hardly any hands worth a 2/1 will raise spades, unless they're playing a system that allows them to show a 10-11 3-card support hand directly. And it seems like lots of strong players on here would prefer to bid their suit rather than show 4-card support immediately if their suit is a potential source of tricks.

[MrAce]

Jinksy, on 2015-July-12, 14:56, said:

This is why it seems more likely to me they have a heart fit.

That said, I think hardly any hands worth a 2/1 will raise spades, unless they're playing a system that allows them to show a 10-11 3-card support hand directly. And it seems like lots of strong players on here would prefer to bid their suit rather than show 4-card support immediately if their suit is a potential source of tricks.

I think Wank is saying that you do not have to guess it all for your side and just tell your hand to pd without exaggerating and when he knows you have minors he will auto know if they have a fit or not and if there is which one is their fit and whether our side should save or not.

[bigbenvic]

m1cha, on 2015-July-12, 07:06, said:

Q2: The slam is down when East leads a ♣, West takes the ♣A and switches to ♠. Let's assume East comes to the conclusion that this is the way to play (which is perhaps far from clear with these two kings, but anyway), then what should East lead to make Partner switch to ♠?

I would lead the 9♣ in this situation and hope that partner reads this as suit preference for a ruff.