[ycos]

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I was south and my partner had this hand. What do you lead?

[nige1]

IMO, ♣ = 10, ♠ = 9, ♥ = 8, ♦ = 6. 11 is a lot of tricks and declarer may need to rely on ruffs for some of them.

[mikeh]

It sounds as if dummy will be very short in the majors, with maybe 6=5 minors or so. The question really is whether we have some fast tricks to take before declarer jilts major losers on the long diamonds, or whether we need to attack trumps. Imo, this is unlikely to be a pure cross-ruff hand, since I expect declarer to be able to establish diamonds through no more than one or two ruffs, and I am doubtful of our ability to pull 3 rounds of trump early enough.....note that they rate to be on a 5-4 or better fit, and partner will often/usually hold 5 spades for his 3♠ call (indeed, I can't imagine he has fewer than 5). So partner may well be 5=3=3=2!

I think that the layout to worry most about is something like

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I lead the suit in which our tricks might run away....hearts.

I am not at all suggesting that the proposed layout is 'likely': I am merely suggesting only that a club lead is unlikely to help. Clearly we aren't leading dummy's side suit, and spades seems sub-optimal on the bidding.

[cherdano]

I think another case (perhaps more likely?) where a heart lead is necessary is when partner has ♠AK, ♥K and a trump trick, dummy has ♠x ♥Ax, diamonds are solid between dummy and declarer, and declarer's shape is such that he could pitch his hearts - e.g. 2=3=3=5.

[mikeh]

cherdano, on 2015-June-03, 16:04, said:

I think another case (perhaps more likely?) where a heart lead is necessary is when partner has ♠AK, ♥K and a trump trick, dummy has ♠x ♥Ax, diamonds are solid between dummy and declarer, and declarer's shape is such that he could pitch his hearts - e.g. 2=3=3=5.

I agree....I wasn't suggesting that getting two quick heart tricks was 'the' reason, and your idea is as valid as my construction, if not more so. My point, really, was a combination of the improbability that we both needed to and would be able to cut down ruffs and the need to take or establish heart winners before dummy's diamonds could be run. My example happened to be easy to reflect in a quickly-done hand diagram

[WesleyC]

My first instinct was a trump, but on more reflection I agree that a heart is probably best.

The fact that East chose to jump to 5C implies a good club fit and 3 small diamonds is a red flag. Even if dummy tracks with only 5 diamonds (e.g 1354) declarer will almost always have 2 heart discards.

Also a heart lead feels slightly less committal than a trump. Some of the time that a trump lead is right partner will be able to win the first heart and switch. The other way around, might not be the case.

[ycos]

mikeh, on 2015-June-03, 08:52, said:

It sounds as if dummy will be very short in the majors, with maybe 6=5 minors or so. The question really is whether we have some fast tricks to take before declarer jilts major losers on the long diamonds, or whether we need to attack trumps. Imo, this is unlikely to be a pure cross-ruff hand, since I expect declarer to be able to establish diamonds through no more than one or two ruffs, and I am doubtful of our ability to pull 3 rounds of trump early enough.....note that they rate to be on a 5-4 or better fit, and partner will often/usually hold 5 spades for his 3♠ call (indeed, I can't imagine he has fewer than 5). So partner may well be 5=3=3=2!

I think that the layout to worry most about is something like

---

I lead the suit in which our tricks might run away....hearts.

I am not at all suggesting that the proposed layout is 'likely': I am merely suggesting only that a club lead is unlikely to help. Clearly we aren't leading dummy's side suit, and spades seems sub-optimal on the bidding.

You were very close. Nice. The real layout is worst than that for NS.