[wank]

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imps again

aggressive opps

please say what you would do over p's likely continuations if you double or invite.

partner's hand is

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obviously he has the shape to pull a double but he also has a bag of crap. as far as i'm concerned this hand is a pass of the double in which case you would get 500. spades are 4-1 but if you finesse a diamond through the non-preemptor on the first round you make 6 spades.

personally i'd have bid 5h on the original hand. simple bid for a simple mind, though for sure i see the logic of double. everyone at the event was claiming it's a slam drive though hence the title.

[jallerton]

Double.

[mikeh]

I admit my initial thought was a choice between a very conservative 4♠ and an aggressive 5♥, but I like double a lot.

Partner won't sit for it with shape, and so if he passes, we are probably fairly happy, and if he bids, we may be very well positioned indeed. Just imagine a 5♣ bid...ok, I am being delusional given how short we are in the unbid minor....or even a 4N bid.

Admittedly QJxxx xx AQx KQx might find us missing a slam, but we haven't made it yet and often won't. And were I to have bid a quiet 4♠ our 650 or 680 will be against maybe 800 our way on defence.

Over 5♦... hmmm.....I'll get back to you if that happens, but expect to end up in a spade slam.

[mike777]

4nt looking for grand but will settle for 6.

do not expect opener to have less than:

QJxxx...x..AKTx..KJx

and could have more.

as other said double does have some appeal they should go for 800

[ArtK78]

 mike777, on 2015-April-20, 16:49, said:

4nt looking for grand but will settle for 6.

do not expect opener to have less than:

QJxxx...x..AKTx..KJx

and could have more.

as other said double does have some appeal they should go for 800

I will play partner for as little as QJTxxx x AKx KQx and bid 7NT.

Really, Mike? 4NT looking for a grand? How will you find it? Take off the rose colored glasses.

I see what others have posted. I have to admit that my first thought was a very wimpy 4♠ figuring that a lot could go wrong, including a ♥K lead covered and ruffed. Double did not seem right to me, but I may have to reconsider.

[mikeh]

 mike777, on 2015-April-20, 16:49, said:

4nt looking for grand but will settle for 6.

do not expect opener to have less than:

QJxxx...x..AKTx..KJx

and could have more.

as other said double does have some appeal they should go for 800

Wow.....Roth-Stone is alive and well

Btw, double is not penalty

[mike777]

I certainly think your example is very possible.

ya have been opening a bit more conservative lately.

but agree double has a lot more attraction if pard does not.

agree double is neg.

[Aardv]

I'm worried that double will score us +300 instead of 650 in spades, when East has diamonds on the side. 5♥ for me. But perhaps not against some Easts.

[Bbradley62]

KISS: 6♠

[nige1]

 wank, on 2015-April-20, 16:11, said:

imps again
aggressive opps
please say what you would do over p's likely continuations if you double or invite.

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Double = 10, 4♠ = 9, 5♥ = 8. If partner pulls, then slam.

[P_Marlowe]

X

Slam may make, I take the money.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[gszes]

This is a guess but under normal circumstances we should be very close to slam. Our heart holding makes it hugely probable p is short in hearts and that increases our slam chances. What I would fear the most about x is whn p feels they have to leave it in with say xxxxxxx x AKx KQ or some such where we might easily miss 7s (we may well bid it) and trade it in for a paltry 300-500. I will go with my gut and use

4n

and then ask for the spade Q. If p can produce both of those cards I will bid 6 and leave it to partner to bid 7 with exceptional spade length. If I try and sign off in 5s p might still be able to bid 6 with extra spade length (realizing we fear a spade loser). The 5 level rates to be fairly safe so slam exploration this way is anything but unreasonable with huge upside potential while hoping x gets left in has not so much.

[ArtK78]

 gszes, on 2015-April-21, 11:58, said:

This is a guess but under normal circumstances we should be very close to slam. Our heart holding makes it hugely probable p is short in hearts and that increases our slam chances. What I would fear the most about x is whn p feels they have to leave it in with say xxxxxxx x AKx KQ or some such where we might easily miss 7s (we may well bid it) and trade it in for a paltry 300-500. I will go with my gut and use

4n

and then ask for the spade Q. If p can produce both of those cards I will bid 6 and leave it to partner to bid 7 with exceptional spade length. If I try and sign off in 5s p might still be able to bid 6 with extra spade length (realizing we fear a spade loser). The 5 level rates to be fairly safe so slam exploration this way is anything but unreasonable with huge upside potential while hoping x gets left in has not so much.

You are dreaming if you think that partner can ethically bid 6♠ over your 5♠ signoff or bid 7♠ over your 6♠ call after 4NT.

[mike777]

 gszes, on 2015-April-21, 11:58, said:

This is a guess but under normal circumstances we should be very close to slam. Our heart holding makes it hugely probable p is short in hearts and that increases our slam chances. What I would fear the most about x is whn p feels they have to leave it in with say xxxxxxx x AKx KQ or some such where we might easily miss 7s (we may well bid it) and trade it in for a paltry 300-500. I will go with my gut and use

4n

and then ask for the spade Q. If p can produce both of those cards I will bid 6 and leave it to partner to bid 7 with exceptional spade length. If I try and sign off in 5s p might still be able to bid 6 with extra spade length (realizing we fear a spade loser). The 5 level rates to be fairly safe so slam exploration this way is anything but unreasonable with huge upside potential while hoping x gets left in has not so much.

fwiw I think we need to assume pard has the Qs or extra length, after 4nt, 5nt should be grand try and with your example an easy 7s bid.

Qjxxxx...x.....Axx...KQx has chances for 7 and we should at least get to 6s

I just think double puts a lot of pressure on pard to pull but perhaps I am assuming pard will not open some of these example hands.

It will be interesting to see just what pard did open on.

[PhilKing]

I'm in the double camp. This shows "transferable values" for me, and I expect partner to sit the double unless he has decent shape. Typically, he will pass with any 5332, 5431 or 5422, pull with 55 or 64, and use his judgement with 6 spades and, say a 6223 distribution. I would expect him to bid 4♠ at these colours unless his spades are very weak.

So if, partner passes, I do not expect us to have missed slam that often unless partner has four clubs, and over any removal, I will drive to slam.

[wank]

posted p's hand

[mike777]

thanks for posting a very interesting thread.

I note pard did as you say open on a "bag of crap" but add Js and you had a play for 7 not that we ever bid it.

To be fair while we should not put perfect cards in partner's hand I don't think we need to assume the worst possible series of hands.

[lmilne]

I must say when I saw this hand I didn't even consider double.

We are vulnerable versus not and you are willing to take the chance of +300 or +500? We have a vulnerable game on ice and fair play for a vulnerable slam! I also think that we if we have +800 against 4♥ (giving them little more than 6 heart tricks, so we take every trick in side suits) we are highly likely to have +1430 in spades.

I don't know whether it's best to go low with 4♠, invite with 5♥, or keycard, but I sure as hell ain't doubling. I really don't get it.

[mikeh]

 lmilne, on 2015-April-23, 09:24, said:

I must say when I saw this hand I didn't even consider double.

We are vulnerable versus not and you are willing to take the chance of +300 or +500? We have a vulnerable game on ice and fair play for a vulnerable slam! I also think that we if we have +800 against 4♥ (giving them little more than 6 heart tricks, so we take every trick in side suits) we are highly likely to have +1430 in spades.

I don't know whether it's best to go low with 4♠, invite with 5♥, or keycard, but I sure as hell ain't doubling. I really don't get it.

The point is to understand how the double is played by most experienced players these days.

It is NOT showing trump tricks against 4♥. It doesn't deny trump tricks, but it is not about having them. It is not a penalty double.

There are various ways of describing this double, and the one I like the best is 'transferable values', meaning that we have cards that will be useful on offence if opener has shape and useful on defence if he has a flat hand.

Our hand certainly fits that description, which means that double is an action that we should at least consider. It doesn't mean that it is the action we should take...we need to take the analysis a little further...we need to consider the other alternatives available to us and compare relative merit.

We seem to have 3 possible approaches, altho one of them could be pursued in a number of ways.

We can see this as a slam hand. We can use keycard (altho I think it foolish to do so since knowing how many keycards partner has doesn't let us count tricks), or cue 5♥ or jump to slam.

However, I think we can all see that slam won't always make. Qxxxx xx AKx Kxx makes for a borderline slam even if the heart lead isn't ruffed, and Qxxxx xxx AKx Kxx is basically hopeless on a heart lead.

So driving to slam is not smart. We could bid 5♥ and pass 5♠ but that is likely the worst possible approach. I mean, what are we expecting partner to do when he has at most 1 Ace, and bad trump?

The conservative approach is to just bid 4♠. That gives up on slam. I can think of almost no hand on which partner should be bidding over 4♠, since he cannot know that we were not stretching to compete, with a borderline hand. He cannot logically play us for slam interest.

Thus we can see that guessing to be aggressive or to be conservative amounts to our taking unilateral action, with only a hope and a prayer that we have guessed correctly.

Now, ask yourself this: which action would we see as best if we knew that partner had a flat hand?

Which action would we see as best if we knew that partner had shape?

On the first, it would be close between defending and playing game. On the latter, it would be clear to bid, and probably good to bid slam.

Doubling in essence is asking partner which he has. If he has the flat hand, we may collect 500 against 620/650 or we may collect 800. We'd probably prefer to play 4♠ but defending could be better.

If he has the shape hand, we almost always want to be in slam.

By doubling we go right whenever he has shape and we often survive when he doesn't. This has to be better than our making a unilateral guess now.

[PhantomSac]

Yeah I agree with mikeh, doubling is definitely better than bidding 4S. The likelihood we bid a good slam after doubling that we would have missed by bidding 4S is greater than getting 300 vs our game (although losing 3 or 4 for 500 is not insignificant and adds up I suppose).

I think partner will pass the double with 51(43) rather than bid to the 5 level (which PK seems to agree with), so it's possible that bidding 5H is better than doubling since I do think we will have a decent shot at slam opposite that hand type, and partner might bid it over a 5H bid. But 5S might go down with bad breaks (which becomes more likely after a 4H bid obv), and going minus on this hand in 5S is a disaster compared to defending 4H X.

So I think the only reasonable options are X and 5H. I think driving to slam is insane, I do find it interesting that everyone who has mentioned bidding 4N believes it to be keycard, is it standard to play 4N as keycard here? (I don't).

At MP this is a different problem of course as Xing leading to +500 instead of +620/650 will be very common and now everything is different. This problem might also depend on the style of the w/r 4H bidder.