Final decision time
#2
Posted 2014-December-18, 16:37
#3
Posted 2014-December-18, 16:41
6C shows 1 outside K -- obviously the ♣K .
Doesn't that add up to 13 tricks ?
2 Sp
6 Hts
2 Diam
3 Cl
Bid 7NT over 6C .
TWOferBRIDGE
"imo by far in bridge the least understood concept is how to bid over a jump-shift
( 1M-1NT!-3m-?? )." ....Justin Lall
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#4
Posted 2014-December-18, 16:55
i guess we still have the option of spade finesse
#5
Posted 2014-December-18, 17:19
#6
Posted 2014-December-18, 17:19
ETA: We might also gain if he's 2632 with Jxx in Ds. I think then it's better odds than a straight finesse to play to drop the QS in three rounds of the suit then try to squeeze E in the pointy suits if it doesn't show up.
#7
Posted 2014-December-18, 17:33
On this bidding I deserve to hear 5♠ over 4N when he has AQx KJxxxxx Q Jx.
#9
Posted 2014-December-18, 18:30
What is baby oil made of?
#10
Posted 2014-December-18, 19:04
YOU: ♠ K J T 9 ♥ A Q 6 5 ♦ A K x ♣ Q 6
OXO1 ♠ A x ♥ K x x x x x ♦ x x ♣ A K x
OXO2 ♠ A x ♥ K x x x x x ♦ x x x ♣ A K
OXO3 ♠ A x x ♥ K x x x x x ♦ x x ♣ A K
#11
Posted 2014-December-18, 19:55
if pard has ♠Q it's cold.
if he hasn't, maybe we can finesse it lol
#12
Posted 2014-December-19, 02:51
So at MPs 7NT is obvious, at IMPs not so much but I don't think it will matter.
#13
Posted 2014-December-19, 03:34
I don't know if you play this, but something I do over the 3♥ bid is use 3♠ as a shape ask. You can set it up how you want, but I go:
3NT = 3622 // 4♣ = 2632 // 4♦ = 2623 // 4♥ = 2722, and min for your 3♥ bid // 4♠ + = non-min 2722, showing KC
If you luckily own 17+ HCP and partner tries to sign-off, you can directly answer KC. This way, you can find out shape when needed, and bid those perfect-fitting slams on less than 30 HCP.
"Learn from the mistakes of others. You won't live long enough to make them all yourself."
"One advantage of bad bidding is that you get practice at playing atrocious contracts."
-Alfred Sheinwold
#14
Posted 2014-December-19, 05:28
whereagles, on 2014-December-18, 19:55, said:
if pard has ♠Q it's cold.
if he hasn't, maybe we can finesse it lol
P has denied the Q♠.
#15
Posted 2014-December-19, 07:19
Fluffy, on 2014-December-19, 02:51, said:
So at MPs 7NT is obvious, at IMPs not so much but I don't think it will matter.
The chance of a ruff must be small with 10 cards between the suits. You also have the layout I mentioned above, and another small chance I just thought of - finding P with 3622 and an opp showing out on a ruff of the third ♦, marking the S finesse.
At MP 7N is prob better in a strong room, but most of the time I bid MP grands, I prefer to bid the one I'm most likely to make.
#16
Posted 2014-December-19, 07:50
If I had chosen 6, I am not sure whether opps would call the director when P woke up to holding 7 hearts - I would hope not and I would *not* expect a rollback - what the devil is partner supposed to think with a 7th trump after all this poking around for a grand anyway?!
#17
Posted 2014-December-19, 08:14
First NT vs hearts. The only real benefit of hearts is trying to ruff out
the spade Q which is likely to succeed in only 36% of the relevant cases
far less than 50% we would have for a spade finesse. Fluffy notes an additional
benefit if opener happens to hold dia JTx but I did not bother to look and see
if that holding would come even remotely close to covering the massive 14%
difference. Hearts also benefits from 70 spades (if opener has 2) since we
would have an assured finesse or ruffing finesse but that is barely 1/2%.
With 12 top tricks we can easily imagine making 13 on at worst a spade finesse
(either way) so maybe a tad above 50%, finessing the player short in hearts, and
while that is not even close to the recommended 80% for a grand the roughly 33.3%
chance of opener holding 3 clubs pushes our chances to well around 85%. I say go for it.
#18
Posted 2014-December-19, 09:26
Quote
the spade Q which is likely to succeed in only 36% of the relevant cases
far less than 50% we would have for a spade finesse.
Bollocks.
Give opener A KJxxxx xxxx AK (not a hand on which he'd show ♠ shortage in my book), and if the queen doesn't drop in 2 rounds, 7♥ is on the ruffing finesse while 7N looks like it needs E to have 5♦s and the ♠Q.
Give opener Ax KJxxxx JTx AK, and we can try to ruff out the SQ, then fall back on the D finesse, whereas in 7N we just have to pick one.
Give opener Axx KJxxxx xx AK, and we can ruff the third D to see if either opp shows out before deciding which way to play the ♠ finesse.
Are you seriously claiming the combined odds of these add up to less than the chance of a first round ruff when, (unless P is 1642), the biggest chance of that is P with 3622, meaning Ss need a mere 6-0 split the wrong way round (approx 0.0035% by my reckoning + Wikipedia. Plus the added chance of ♣s 9-0 or ♦s 7-0, pushing it up to a meaty ~0.0052%, assuming the opps passed throughout NV)
Quote
chance of opener holding 3 clubs pushes our chances to well around 85%. I say go for it.
By my calculation (before accounting for the possibilities of 2722 and 1642), it's more like 66%. I dunno where this 'recommended 80%' comes from, though. It depends a lot on context, but for most purposes, I'll happily take 66% + the extra chances for 7♥s.
#19
Posted 2014-December-19, 22:43
In 7♥, there is no hope that the defense will err when they know partner's hand and see yours in dummy. In 7NT your hand will be hidden. It will be harder for the opponents to decide which cards to hold on too when you start running the heart suit.
Rik
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#20
Posted 2014-December-20, 03:18
Trinidad, on 2014-December-19, 22:43, said:
In 7♥, there is no hope that the defense will err when they know partner's hand and see yours in dummy. In 7NT your hand will be hidden. It will be harder for the opponents to decide which cards to hold on too when you start running the heart suit.
Rik
Unfortunately, playing the hand from unknown side is not a big advantage, if at all, in grandslams. Forget about expert opponents, any average player will easily construct the hands to figure where your problem is due to no claim in grandslams.
I think if you believe 7♥ has better odds, then you should really not worry about them seeing your hand in defense.
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3♥ = 6-7 hearts, no singleton or void; 5♦ = 3 keys, 5♠= king ask because the assumptionis we have a 10+ card fit, no queen ask or show is used on this auction, 6♣ = one side king, 6♦ ask side queens, 6♥ no side queen
In theory, after being asked for side queens, north would blast 7♥ with a seven card suit, in practice he has never remembered such. But lets assume he has only six hearts.