So this has finally become a controversial thread, and funny too. (Considering, for instance, that initially the 3NT bid was rated too strong by some and later too weak by others
.)
I think 3NT shows just the right strength for a hand with values for an opening bid opposite a weak opening hand. And yes, bidding game shows values for game and not much more, so partner is expected to pass with any previously limited hand! This can be different after a sequence such as 1
♦ - 1
♥ - 1
♠ - 3NT when opener is, well, theoretically limited but in a very wide range and may still have 19 HCP rather than the promised 12 HCP and then may start a slam try.
Anyway, once one is reasonably sure what the final contract should be, one should bid it. The question here is: Should we go for 3NT or 5
♦? I believe that, while 3NT will sometimes fall and 5
♦ will make or not, 3NT should be the winning alternative with this hand in the long run. So I would bid 3NT with a hand like this if ... I had 4 cards in
♥. But having 5 cards in
♥, 4
♥ is an attractive alternative and we should give partner the opportunity of showing 3-card
♥ support. For this reason, mainly, we should force on with 2
♠ or 3
♣ here rather than bid 3NT. Which of them is better? Usually I don't like bidding artificial major suits. With minors it is less likely that things will go wrong. On the other hand, the problem with 3
♣ here is that opener may still have a 4-card
♣ suit and raise to 4
♣, and then the attractive 3NT contract is lost. For this reason I would prefer 2
♠ here unless I see a significant probability that opener still has a 4-card
♠ suit which I think should not be the case. With 6-4 in
♦ and
♠ they would rebid 1
♠ rather than 2
♦, or perhaps not? Anyway, a bid of 3
♠ can be corrected to 3NT, and in the unlikely case of 4
♠ it can be corrected to 5
♦.
This brings us to the North hand. I can understand that some prefer to bid 2
♦ with just 12 HCP, and indeed if partner does not support
♦ and opps'
♦s split badly, and if the entry to the North hand is lost and we cannot establish the
♦ suit, then 3NT, 4
♥ or higher may end up in a terrible desaster. But that is a lot of 'if's. I think one should be less pessimistic here and reasonably hope that the
♦ cards turn out useful, and then this hand has 7.5 playing tricks certainly worth a jump to 3
♦ which should bring us close enough to a slam.
This sequence, 1
♦ - 1
♥ / 2
♦ - 3NT / 4
♦, by the way, I am not sure what I would think of it. Does it really mean "I should have bid 3
♦ earlier, and I hope to play a slam now" or does it mean "I should have opened 3
♦ and 3NT has no chance"? It is usually a bad idea to correct one's former bid even if you realize it was bad; because if you try to correct it, partner will often draw the wrong conclusions from your activity and not react as expected. While if you stick with your decision it will likely not make a difference; and if it does, it will sometimes even be good; and if it is not, you apologize and move on. We all should be allowed to make mistakes.