[Shugart23]

Case 1 : Partner bids 1H, RHO bids 1NT and it passes out.

Case 2 : Partner bids 1H, RHO bids 1NT, LHO bids 3NT, all Pass

you hold xx in Spades, A32 in Hearts , xxxx,xxxx in the Minors.

What do you lead in Case 1 and what do you lead in Case 2 ?

I think maybe in Case 1 you lead a low heart but in Case 2 you might lead a low Spade ?

Opinions ?

[PhilKing]

♥

[Shugart23]

against the 3NT contract, the heart lead might be giving the 9th trick to Opponents more times than not might be the counter argument and you might be better off sitting on top of his stopper. Your partner has points and will get in for a Heart lead to your ace....

[whereagles]

Bird/Anthias have a couple of similar hands. Shd be possible to get some analysis from there.

[aguahombre]

 PhilKing, on 2014-September-23, 08:23, said:

♥

Was this an emphatic simple answer, or did it have another significance?

[gordontd]

 aguahombre, on 2014-September-23, 09:16, said:

Was this an emphatic simple answer, or did it have another significance?

Perhaps Phil & Lurpoa are one and the same.

[aguahombre]

 gordontd, on 2014-September-23, 09:20, said:

Perhaps Phil & Lurpoa are one and the same.

I always wondered about that.

[MrAce]

 PhilKing, on 2014-September-23, 08:23, said:

♥

LurpoKing!

[nige1]

 MrAce, on 2014-September-23, 16:28, said:

♥ LurpoKing!

High praise indeed!

[1eyedjack]

Jury's out on how much trust to place in this frankly new product, but I ran a sim through Lead Captain

Sample size 10000

RHO defined as 15-18 HCP, balanced with H Guard
LHO defined as 0-8 HCP with no 6+ card suit
P defined as 11-18 HCP, 5-7 Hearts, no other 5 card suit.

V 3NT

Lead ......... % set .............expected tricks

H3 ............. 60.81 ...........5.09
HA .............. 59.55 ..........4.98
D6 .............. 50.15 ..........4.82
C6 ...............49.96 ..........4.82
S3 ...............47.75 ...........4.81

V 1NT (new set of 10000)

Lead ......... % set .............expected tricks

H3 ............. 24.51 ...........5.09
S3 ............. 20.06 ...........4.78
HA .............. 19.90 ..........4.97
C6 .............. 18.43 ..........4.78
D6 ...............18.41 ..........4.79


Perhaps marginally interesting that the Spade 3 leaps up the rankings v 1N contrasted with 3N, but probably the only inference that you can draw is that there is very little difference between 2nd and 5th preference, and with a sample size of 10000 maybe some swapping of rankings is to be expected.

[EDIT - just realised that the input criteria for LHO is wrong v 3NT. Have to go to work now, will try to adjust in a few hours when I get back]

[whereagles]

Close numbers fall within statistical margins, so S3/HA vs 3NT can probably be deemed "equal leads".

[1eyedjack]

 whereagles, on 2014-September-24, 01:14, said:

Close numbers fall within statistical margins, so S3/HA vs 3NT can probably be deemed "equal leads".

As I say in the Edit, the 3NT stats are completely bogus. Watch this space for update. May get it done lunchtime.

[PhilKing]

 1eyedjack, on 2014-September-24, 02:40, said:

As I say in the Edit, the 3NT stats are completely bogus. Watch this space for update. May get it done lunchtime.

How do you define heart guard? ♥Qxx is perfectly normal, for instance, and they may misguess with QTx.

[whereagles]

 1eyedjack, on 2014-September-24, 02:40, said:

As I say in the Edit, the 3NT stats are completely bogus. Watch this space for update. May get it done lunchtime.

I was speaking in general.

I once calculated the deviation for 5000 hands. If I recall correctly it was like ~1% chance of beating, meaning differences of ~1% essentially mean equivalent leads.

[1eyedjack]

I defined "a heart guard" as at least 1 of top 3 honours. A bit crude, but then it is all a bit crude.

I have re-run the 3NT sim twice by defining LHO as 9 -15 HCP, any shape except (1) denying a 5th Spade (would presumably enquire after Spade fit) and (2) denying a 4th Spade (likewise, but less certain).

V 3NT, LHO denying 5th Spade

Lead ......... % set .............expected tricks

H3 ............. 37.79 ...........4.16
HA .............. 36.35 ..........4.11
S3 .............. 27.67 ..........4.00
C6 ...............26.08 ..........3.88
D6 ...............25.82 ...........3.87


V 3NT, LHO denying 4th Spade

Lead ......... % set .............expected tricks

H3 ............. 36.42 ...........4.05
HA .............. 36.17 ..........4.07
S3 .............. 28.57 ..........4.00
C6 ...............22.03 ..........3.71
D6 ...............21.89 ...........3.71

[dave_beer]

(1) Why didn't I bid 2♥ over 1NT?
(2) ♥2.

I think it is more important to lead ♥2 against 3NT since opponents may have fewer than 25 or 26 HCP and being trying to run long suit in which case we have to take our tricks before they take theirs.

[1eyedjack]

 dave_beer, on 2014-September-24, 16:26, said:

I think it is more important to lead ♥2 against 3NT since opponents may have fewer than 25 or 26 HCP and being trying to run long suit in which case we have to take our tricks before they take theirs.

That can be a 2-edged strategy: They have 8 running tricks with their long suit, the 9th being the H:K that you kindly lead up to at trick 1. If they are short on points then equally partner is more likely to have a side suit entry to lead H through declarer and another to get in to run them. Then again, maybe not

[marcindz]

I thought that 2♥ is a nobrainer for a second. Then I realised, that 1NT is AFTER 1♥ opening. That means, that my partner opening was rather distribution-wise.

Depends if Max or Imp. On Max always heart lead. On Imp and 1NT, could risk spade.