[the_dude]

I know these are mostly guesses, but I'd like to get a sense of where the majority is....

Local sectional, swiss teams against average opponents.

Hand 1:

---

Hand 2:

---

Thanks for your input ... the more votes the better

[gszes]

HAND 1


PASS
still have a p that may have good values and can balance---have too little here
risk a monstrously bad score.

HAND 2


3N


risky, but since p is already passed there is little likelihood they will be able to balance.
3N is also our most likely game. If we are x we at least have the relative safety of 4c
which significantly reduces the risk of bidding here.

[quiddity]

X, 3N ; not that close.

[mikeh]

1. Double

The hand with shortness has to strain to act. Partner could well have a decent hand with 3 spades and have to pass, when cold for game. However, the heart suit is way too short and weak to bid game, and we have support for both minors. I think this is clear.



2. Pass. If we belong in 3N, partner needs magic cards or a near-maximum, and our spades are (just) long enough that he may be able to balance. Meanwhile, if the hand belongs to the opps, bidding 3N may get the doubling cube rolling....we'd pull to 4♣ of course, but we have a lot of losers. In addition, to me, bidding 4♣ opposite a passed hand is an invitation to partner to save should they bid 4♠...and while maybe a save is ok, see my comment about a lot of losers. I admit that I am not as convinced on this one as I am on the first, which I do think is clear. I do think this hand is a trap for point counters.

[akwoo]

Hand 1 needs to be discussed with partner. I prefer a style where I pass this and partner balances aggressively, but that's not the only reasonable style out there.

[Vampyr]

LOL did you really expect a consensus in a BBO poll?

[cloa513]

mikeh, on 2013-July-29, 15:22, said:

1. Double

The hand with shortness has to strain to act. Partner could well have a decent hand with 3 spades and have to pass, when cold for game. However, the heart suit is way too short and weak to bid game, and we have support for both minors. I think this is clear.



2. Pass. If we belong in 3N, partner needs magic cards or a near-maximum, and our spades are (just) long enough that he may be able to balance. Meanwhile, if the hand belongs to the opps, bidding 3N may get the doubling cube rolling....we'd pull to 4♣ of course, but we have a lot of losers. In addition, to me, bidding 4♣ opposite a passed hand is an invitation to partner to save should they bid 4♠...and while maybe a save is ok, see my comment about a lot of losers. I admit that I am not as convinced on this one as I am on the first, which I do think is clear. I do think this hand is a trap for point counters.

What partner will balance with
♠xxx
♥ KQxx
♦Kxxx
♣ xx
a wide range of distributions are fine too.


That's all you really need to make 3 NT a decent proposition.

[mikeh]

cloa513, on 2013-July-29, 18:08, said:

What partner will balance with
♠xxx
♥ KQxx
♦Kxxx
♣ xx
a wide range of distributions are fine too.


That's all you really need to make 3 NT a decent proposition.

do you understand the meaning of 'may'? I said that if we pass partner 'may' be able to balance. I don't think you disagree with that, do you?

I'll miss some 3N's that make. You'll go for some numbers I'll avoid. I doubt that you can prove that your choice is better than mine, and I doubt that I can do the opposite. For one thing, we'd have to agree on constraints for the actions of all of the other 3 hands. What is the best and worst 3♠? What would W need to double or to bid 4♠? What would N need to balance? What's the best hand N could have to pass originally? And so on.

My experience suggests one course of action, yours another. That's the way bridge discussions go, but you shouldn't read a post like mine and then post implying that I said that partner would always, or even frequently, balance when 3N makes. At least, not unless I actually said that

[the hog]

Hand 1 double is clear.
Hand 2 is close to 3NT, but needs some luck.

[inquiry]

1. Dbl

2. Pass

[Fluffy]

I am surprised Mikeh passes with a nice looking 5431 12 count with the right singleton. This is close to my minimum, and I am pretty solid when it comes to acting live, but I'd even double with less (1444 for example).

EDIT: I read mikeh's answers wrong.

Second I like 3NT, its a gamble that LHO has less than 3 spades and we can shut their communications off. I don't think I'd stand a double.

[gwnn]

Fluffy, on 2013-July-30, 05:12, said:

I am surprised Mikeh passes with a nice looking 5431 12 count with the right singleton. This is close to my minimum, and I am pretty solid when it comes to acting live, but I'd even double with less (1444 for example).

Second I like 3NT, its a gamble that LHO has less than 3 spades and we can shut their communications off. I don't think I'd stand a double.

Mikeh doesn't pass with a nice looking 5431 with the right singleton.

I like X and 3NT. Too bad our stopper is antipositional on the second one but what can I do?

[Siegmund]

Put me down for X and Pass. First one highly style-dependent. Second one, 3NT might be a reasonable gamble with an unpassed partner, but I think we need way too much good fortune for it to work. Even if 4th hand doesn't have 3 spades, there's no reason why opener can't have a red-suit entry. I think there's very little chance of 3NT making unless a perfect dummy comes down (CK and DA, for instance, with the diamond finesse likely to work.)