[bd71]

---

Matchpoints. Lead is ♦9 (most likely 2nd from 4 or more empty, but could in theory be top of doubleton).

What's your plan? Particularly, how do you spend/conserve your diamond tricks, and what's the best way to set up the club suit?

[Mbodell]

I certainly don't know if it is best, but I'm inclined to cash the KJ of diamonds and play a club to the T. I'll hope to set up clubs with only one loser in which case I win 5 clubs, 2 hearts, and 2 diamonds. If they don't, then if they play a diamond I'm fine with 4 clubs. And if they play on spades I have chances of setting up a trick there. It is certainly possible that it is better to win the K only of diamonds and then play a club to the T planning to cash the AQ next and then play on clubs. You get an extra diamond trick but now there are likely 5 tricks with 2 clubs, 1 diamond, and 2 spades in the case it takes 2 losers to set up clubs (and in the case it takes one you didn't need the extra diamond trick).

[bd71]

Matchpoints, you may not "need" it but the extra diamond trick can sure help your score.

[billw55]

My thoughts:

Diamonds offer two deals: three tricks and one entry, or two tricks and two entries.

Assuming a 3-2 break, two club finesses from dummy is (roughly) 75% to bring in five tricks. Playing from hand is (roughly) 50% to bring in five tricks: guess to drop Kx or Jx.

Perhaps I should count myself lucky that a heart was not lead.

I think a whole trick in diamonds is worth more than the extra chance in clubs. Plus I may already be better off than declarers that got a heart lead. So I will play clubs from hand, ace and small.

[ggwhiz]

With no particular conviction, winning the diamond in hand, cash the club Ace, diamond overtaking in dummy for the club 10 next.

Finding a doubleton club honour with rho or dropping any stiff honour makes it a no-brainer, the only plays I consistently get right.

[gszes]

trick 1 win dia J since both opps will know we started with the K winning
with the J will really hammer on the opps psyche on the hopelessness of
continuing diamonds. The will never be certain you started with only 2 dia
and the opening lead marked you with the K. having planted strong seeds of
doubt about continuing dia ---

trick 2 low club toward the T (preferably the three not the two in order to get opps
to hope you only have 5 clubs). If our play at trick one convinced opps to leave
diamonds alone they will switch to a major and that is all the tempo we need
to score up 4c 3d 2h. The other benefit of this LOP is that if the opps do continue
diamonds we can take our 3rd dia trick and try to score 5 club tricks or a miniscule
chance of 4c if the opp winning another club has no more dia and both top spade
honors (or upon winning the second club they switch to a heart vs a spade)

[Free]

I'll take with ♦K and play a ♣ to the T (and unblock the T if LHO plays the K). Later I will overtake my ♦, cash the extra ♦ trick and finesse ♣.

[PhilKing]

Trick 1. ♦Q.

Trick 2. ♣ to the queen. If it loses, crunch the diamonds and finesse again.

I am just aiming to max my chance of five club tricks, but the entry position isn't conducive to dealing with KJxx onside. The lines I see so far seem to just set up five losers on normal breaks. I am catering to all 3-2 breaks with one honour onside. Stiff king or jack onside and stiff jack offside.

[billw55]

PhilKing, on 2013-March-01, 08:11, said:

The lines I see so far seem to just set up five losers on normal breaks.

In some cases, this assumes ops will continue diamonds. But looking at dummy, what will real defenders, holding eight hearts between them and staring at the top diamond honors, actually do at the table? (I like gszes idea of taking the jack at trick one, emphasizing that I have the king.)

[PhilKing]

billw55, on 2013-March-01, 08:39, said:

In some cases, this assumes ops will continue diamonds. But looking at dummy, what will real defenders, holding eight hearts between them and staring at the top diamond honors, actually do at the table? (I like gszes idea of taking the jack at trick one, emphasizing that I have the king.)

Depends on level of defenders, I suppose. East should sniff it out really. South is marked 2335 or 2326 from the bidding and it should be obvious which from the first two tricks and his heart holding.

But if East is weak, I guess he will just look at dummy and play a heart.

[billw55]

PhilKing, on 2013-March-01, 08:47, said:

Depends on level of defenders, I suppose. East should sniff it out really. South is marked 2335 or 2326 from the bidding and it should be obvious which from the first two tricks and his heart holding.

True, but even so a heart could be right. West might hold the ♥A or K.

I was thinking that ace and a small club nets five tricks against 40% of the non-50 breaks. This seemed like a good enough chance for ten tricks that I didn't want to ignore it at matchpoints, considering that nine tricks are still there if it fails and ops switch to hearts. Maybe I am overestimating how often that will happen.

[PhilKing]

billw55, on 2013-March-01, 09:27, said:

True, but even so a heart could be right. West might hold the ♥A or K.

I was thinking that ace and a small club nets five tricks against 40% of the non-50 breaks. This seemed like a good enough chance for ten tricks that I didn't want to ignore it at matchpoints, considering that nine tricks are still there if it fails and ops switch to hearts. Maybe I am overestimating how often that will happen.

Let's focus on the the occasion when East hold ♣Jx. How bovine would he have to be to realise that a heart lead will cause us no pain, given how we have played the hand?

Anyway, I am increasing the percentage of players I will use the club-from-hand line against. On reflection, I will go with a low club against about 75% of defenders in a good club field. Moo!

[billw55]

PhilKing, on 2013-March-01, 09:40, said:

Let's focus on the the occasion when East hold ♣Jx. How bovine would he have to be to realise that a heart lead will cause us no pain, given how we have played the hand?

OK, but that is only three out of 30 club divisions.

Dunno, maybe I am over-infected with matchpoint fever. Of course at IMPs I hook from dummy twice.

edit: also, we are obviously used to a different caliber of opponent!