[FrancesHinden]

---

Playing against very strong opponents (Forrester/Gold)
1C = 5 card majors/strong NT
East's pass of 6D was alerted: showing 1 or 2 defensive tricks
West's double was alerted: showing 0 defensive tricks
(You passed 6S in case East thought his CK was a trick; partner might be able to work this out but you haven't discussed this position)

Your lead.

[CSGibson]

I think anything other than a systemic diamond is overthinking it - we will get our ruff later, might as well make as neutral a lead as possible while waiting to see dummy.

[the hog]

Diamond King. If this holds partner will give me a signal as to what to lead next.

[Fluffy]

I wanna know if east's trick is ♥A or ♣K before I have to win ♠A. PArtner will have to switch if he wins ♦A, this will be a no brainer unless he only has 3 diamonds and dummy has 2.

Anotehr problem that might arise is partner having ♣Q109 or ♣QJ(10) and only ♥Ax, he might want to win ♥A to score a ruff and now our club trick(s) vanishes.

So I lead ♦2 and hope partner take sit as SP

[Hanoi5]

I'm not leading a diamond, why did west double 6♦?

[aguahombre]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-October-29, 01:16, said:

West's double was alerted: showing 0 defensive tricks

Hanoi5, on 2012-October-29, 06:05, said:

why did west double 6♦?

I suspect he doubled because he had 0 defensive tricks, but I could be wrong.

[mikeh]

I'm happy (for now) that E warned me away from bidding grand.. x AQx Axxx xxxxx or x Axx Axxx Kxxxx both make grand cold and partner, while under pressure, did bid slam so can't have a horrible hand.

We may need a ruff in a round suit to maximize the penalty, and we also have to worry about the club K. I think the best way to preserve our options is to lead a diamond. The question then becomes....which one?

No way is a 2nd diamond living, so leading the K will help only when partner realizes what's going on and gives suit preference. That would be trivial if dummy held a stiff, but maybe dummy has xx....partner doesn't know we have 7, altho should probably draw the right inference with AQx (in the real world, I'd bet heavily that this N would get it right).

So the K will usually but not always work. The 2, on the other hand, should clearly suggest a club switch, whick we will probably want no matter what dummy has.

So I lead the diamond 2.

[aguahombre]

So, how do we answer the poll? Is the 2 the systemic Diamond because it is SP? Or is the 2 "other" because "systemic Diamond" refers to the suit itself?

[FrancesHinden]

Well, when I set up the poll it didn't occur to me that anyone would want to lead a suit preference diamond. Shows what I know....
I would treat the DK as 'other'

The 2 of diamonds is your systemic lead in the suit anyway (third highest from even, lowest from odd).
It probably won't apply on this hand, where it's unlikely that any high card tricks will disappear, but in general partner will expect an accurate length lead from your suit so he knows how many are cashing.

I agree organising your ruff is a concern, but telling partner to finesse out declarer's CK isn't something I'm worried about. He knows as well as we do that declarer has the HA, the CA or the CK (or the DA)

Aren't any of the diamond leaders worried that the opening lead will be ruffed?

[mikeh]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-October-29, 13:15, said:

Well, when I set up the poll it didn't occur to me that anyone would want to lead a suit preference diamond. Shows what I know....
I would treat the DK as 'other'

The 2 of diamonds is your systemic lead in the suit anyway (third highest from even, lowest from odd).
It probably won't apply on this hand, where it's unlikely that any high card tricks will disappear, but in general partner will expect an accurate length lead from your suit so he knows how many are cashing.

I agree organising your ruff is a concern, but telling partner to finesse out declarer's CK isn't something I'm worried about. He knows as well as we do that declarer has the HA, the CA or the CK (or the DA)

Aren't any of the diamond leaders worried that the opening lead will be ruffed?

I, for one, was definitely concerned about that.

I was concerned, for example, that dummy has the void diamond and declarer the heart A, such that he scores 2 ruffs on a diamond lead. Having said that, I have difficulty with partner having a hand worth 6♦ rather than a forcing pass when he is missing the heart AK. void QJx AQxx KQJxxx? I'd bid 6 with that hand, but we're getting very specific.

If there were a clearly correct lead, then I doubt that this would have been posted.

As for hooking the club, that wasn't primarily the reason for the suit preference diamond lead. Yes, it works when partner holds QJ clubs, but when he holds the K, he'll presumably play a count card at some early point and I'll hope to know what to do re the hearts/club issue.

[CSGibson]

I'm concerned about the diamond getting ruffed. In that case, I will still have the tempo to get in and switch to whatever; I have controls in everything. I think partner has a spade void, and righty has 3-4, so he's going to be able ruff diamonds anyway. My concern is to get partner on lead for whatever play appears appropriate; the diamond seems to be the best way to do so without losing control of any key suit.

[FrancesHinden]

mikeh, on 2012-October-29, 13:59, said:

If there were a clearly correct lead, then I doubt that this would have been posted.

I made (what I think is) a clearly incorrect lead at the table.
After the fact, we thought we had deduced that there was a clearly correct lead, but also thought this might be with the benefit of hindsight, hence the thread.

[JLOGIC]

Ace of spades seems pretty obv

[aguahombre]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-October-29, 13:15, said:

The 2 of diamonds is your systemic lead in the suit anyway (third highest from even, lowest from odd).

I didn't know that was my systemic lead in this particular situation. I thought when my supported suit was at least six-long, 5th would be readable from odd ---reserving seventh for an occasional suit preference lead.

[bigbenvic]

I cant see many hands where Partner doesn't have the A or Q of hearts. Could I have a heart ruff coming? Is it more likely than me scoring a club ruff? I think it's close. Partner could be 0346 and if clubs are 4-1 then there is no ruff.

So I'm leading the K♥ and when I win the A♠ I'll hopefully know what to do next.

[VM1973]

I'll try a low spade. If partner is void in spades, I'm not going to be able to stop diamond ruffs anyway. Every time I lead the ace of spades in situations like this, I crash partner's stiff king.

[gszes]

partner is limited to 4 hearts that means the opps have at least 7. I find it
extremely difficult to imagine p bidding 6d missing both AQ of hearts
(courtesy bigbenvic) and a heart ruff may be our only way to score a trick
that isnt off the top.

I just dont imagine too many hands where leading the spade A (a rare
disagreement with jlogic) will be overly helpful and it might just give up on
getting us a heart ruff. If the heart K holds the trick (which should have a
good chance) we can make our switch to trumps if it looks like a good idea.

I do not care for any dia lead because it risks giving up 1 or even 2 ruffs even
though declarer likely has at most 1 quick entry. (the dia K has less risk of this
but still seems mostly like treading water at best).

[mikeh]

so, Frances....what happened on the two lead problems?

[FrancesHinden]

I led the ace of spades (at least JLOGIC agrees with me).
The simplest winning lead is the king of hearts, for the exact reasons described.
A club or a diamond also work as long as you switch to a heart in time.

Declarer is 6412, dummy is 4414 and partner is 1345 with Qxx of hearts.

[JLOGIC]

Heh I didn't even really think about the HK lead, just seemed like ace of spades was def better than either minor. I'm not sure I'm convinced yet that this is clearly right, sure I gain when partner has the HQ and not ace, but it seems like I lose ad ,maybe pretty badly when he has no HQ to go with no ace. Is he really so much more likely to have it than either opp on the set of hands that he has no ha?

Spade ace still seems right but willing to be convinced here if you will post your analysis for the hk lead