[bluecalm]

Quote

Why didn't he just pass 2♠?

He meant it as an game try I am pretty sure.
Helness should know that and didn't leave partner in 2N with his 6carder.
3NT is quite decent game on this hand despite partner holding minimum.

[helene_t]

bluecalm, on 2012-August-25, 12:59, said:

Qxx - 30.72%
xx - 27.74%
Qx - 26.29%
xxx - 7.96%
Qxxx - 7.29%

So there is 7.29+30.72 = 38.01% chance that only the finesse works and 27.74+7.96= 35.68% chance that only the drop works. Given that he might cover on a few of the hands that have the queen, I am not sure what is best but the difference must be small.

[bluecalm]

Quote

. Given that he might cover on a few of the hands that have the queen, I am not sure what is best but the difference must be small.

Yeah, I suck at addition. I thought it's 64 to 27 not 64 to 54.

[pigpenz]

have been reading Mackinnons book on Bridge Probability using Paschall's triangle for configuring odds
it would seem most likely it would correct to play for the drop or an even split in the spade suit.

NT bidder starts out
with 2-4-3-4 6*35*20*126=529,000 combinations
with suits breaking as evenly as possible to start with

now start breaking down what other combinations are as we add spade subtract club,or do the same with mior suit cards.

possible NT distributions
3-3-3-4
3-2-4-4
3-4-4-2
2-4-4-3

on last two probably could not count since that we mean responder has 6-7 card suit and isn't competing, this would be great
if we are just trying to test declarers ability to play spade suit, but mot with that hand knowing they have half the deck would compete.

on second would give responder 5 hearts and 5 clubs so most likely that's out also.

so on 3-3-3-4 hand 4*35*20*126=352,000

for me the key is the club suit why arent they bidding more?

and I do understand that nt opener could have 5 hearts or 5 diamonds, but those distributions would tend to lead me to believe that
his partner would bid more clubs

[jogs]

bluecalm, on 2012-August-28, 16:27, said:

He meant it as an game try I am pretty sure.
Helness should know that and didn't leave partner in 2N with his 6carder.
3NT is quite decent game on this hand despite partner holding minimum.

This bidding 42% vul games is based on making or down one.
It does not account for making or down three or more.

[han]

On the contrary! If, among the hands where 3NT is down, 2NT would have down as well, then you need even less for bidding game. -300 vs -200 is only 3 IMPs, better than -100 vs +120.

[jogs]

han, on 2012-August-31, 06:31, said:

On the contrary! If, among the hands where 3NT is down, 2NT would have down as well, then you need even less for bidding game. -300 vs -200 is only 3 IMPs, better than -100 vs +120.

Would 2♠ also be down?

[bluecalm]

Quote

Would 2♠ also be down?

Are you in troll mode ?
It wouldn't be down but obviously Helgemo couldn't know partner has super minimum and will pass 2N with 6 spades. WTF?

[jogs]

bluecalm, on 2012-August-31, 17:33, said:

Are you in troll mode ?
It wouldn't be down but obviously Helgemo couldn't know partner has super minimum and will pass 2N with 6 spades. WTF?

I think Helgemo should have passed 2♠. On boards where opponents open our side rarely has 9 tricks based solely on HCP. When we have 9 tricks, it is usually due to a long running suit. Of the set of hands which East can hold on this bidding very few would make game opposite Helgemo's hand.

[lalldonn]

What is this talk that north might cover with the queen? When the jack is led to AKTxxx? I realize some of it was sarcastic but some of it seems serious. It's not like dummy had AKTxx, THEN north might cover with the queen (in fact it might be difficult not to).

[FrancesHinden]

lalldonn, on 2012-September-01, 08:54, said:

What is this talk that north might cover with the queen? When the jack is led to AKTxxx? I realize some of it was sarcastic but some of it seems serious. It's not like dummy had AKTxx, THEN north might cover with the queen (in fact it might be difficult not to).

He might cover with the queen from Q86x which is correct if declarer has J7.
Spades 4-0 is hugely unlikely though.

[gnasher]

bluecalm, on 2012-August-31, 17:33, said:

Are you in troll mode ?
It wouldn't be down but obviously Helgemo couldn't know partner has super minimum and will pass 2N with 6 spades. WTF?

When you said "3NT is quite decent game" you were offering that as a justification for bidding 2NT. This argument was flawed because 3NT isn't a decent game if the alternative is to play 2♠. 3NT only became worth bidding once we gave up the chance to play in 2♠.

[kayin801]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-September-01, 09:10, said:

He might cover with the queen from Q86x which is correct if declarer has J7.
Spades 4-0 is hugely unlikely though.

This, and obviously never ever cover from Qxx, but my point earlier was that covering with Qx seems normal since it can't cost and wins when partner has 9xxx and declarer stiff J, so you can probably strike some relevant hands from bluecalm's script earlier.

[bluecalm]

Quote

When you said "3NT is quite decent game" you were offering that as a justification for bidding 2NT

It is decent game in the context which is that parnter has super minimum and wouldn't think of accepting any invites. Despite that game has very good chances of making.