[TWO4BRIDGE]

MP Scoring

Lead: Sp 7

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[billw55]

First thought is win it, ♦K, club hook. Loses only when LHO holds ♣Q and another spade. If I duck, they can switch to a heart.

But how realistic is this switch? RHO holding ♠KQJ9x(x) will almost certainly continue the suit; all the more so if he holds a heart honor which looks entryish behind AT73. Ducking would give safety against LHO holding two spades and the ♣Q. Furthermore even if the club hook works, I will still need a favorable position in diamonds to take 13 tricks.

If I really think it through at the table I think I would duck.


edit: of course, if I knew RHO as a player who would never open 2♠ with KQJ9x, then no reason to duck.

[ahydra]

I agree with "if you know RHO definitely won't open on 5 cards then just win Ace." I guess you might even argue that if there's less than a 36% possibility RHO has opened on 5 cards you should win the Ace, since those are (roughly) your odds of picking up a 13th trick in diamonds.

ahydra

[gnasher]

ahydra, on 2012-April-05, 08:58, said:

I agree with "if you know RHO definitely won't open on 5 cards then just win Ace." I guess you might even argue that if there's less than a 36% possibility RHO has opened on 5 cards you should win the Ace, since those are (roughly) your odds of picking up a 13th trick in diamonds.

How would you plan to play for that 13th trick? If you lead clubs from hand you might find South with ♣Qxx; if you cash the top diamonds before touching clubs, you might find North with ♣Q.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

With no information about the personality of south, I decided to win the 1st trick.
I went to the board w/♦K... and took the ♣finesse.
The news was "sorta" good..... North won w/Q.

BUT back came a SPADE.... for Down 1 .

South had made a good 3rd seat opening with K Q J - 5th .
North
7 2
K J 4 2
10 7 5 4
Q 6 3

South
K Q J 9 6
Q 8 6 5
J 2
8 7

If I ducked, I doubt if South would have made the killing ♥ switch...