2NT-3NT artificial How to use it?
#21
Posted 2012-March-16, 13:09
The estimate that this costs "1 imp per board" looks crazy to me. Given that we never forget it (and we have never forgotten it) it makes no difference nearly all the time, some of the rest of the time we bid a good slam that we wouldn't otherwise have done, sometimes it gets them off to the wrong lead, sometimes they go for a penalty (a +960 not that long ago springs to mind) and yes, every now and again, it gets them off to a better lead against our final contract.
#22
Posted 2012-March-16, 13:20
-- Bertrand Russell
#23
Posted 2012-March-16, 14:15
This has its plusses and minuses, but we have not had any real problems with it.
#24
Posted 2012-March-16, 15:56
Then it would make some sense to use a gadget in 3NT.
#25
Posted 2012-March-16, 16:30
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I was referring to 3C/3S sequence which gives chance to double two suits on the way to 3N.
My estimation of cost of 3S = transfer to 3N as the way to get to 3nt is 0.5/0.6imp per board and about 12-15 tricks per 100 hand on opening lead at matchpoints.
I admit those are very quick estimations but I would be very surprised if they were way off, the way those things work in my view.
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Well.. yeah. Notice that let's say 5 out of 100 hands when they defeat your 3N when they otherwise wouldn't is already 0.5imp/hand but all you could intuitively say from experience is exactly what's in the quote above.
#26
Posted 2012-March-16, 16:34
Maybe using 3NT as non forcing but showing a certain type of hand (like 33 in both M or 3433/4333 that doesnt really want to go through stayman) make sense
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#27
Posted 2012-March-16, 16:43
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This is wrong.
First, many people are worried about it hence increasing popularity of 1N - 2N = invite, at least among people I play with.
Second, doubling 2S is not nearly as lucrative because they could redouble you occasionally and more importantly they have room to check for stoppers/run to some other spot. At 3S level the only thing they can do is to bid 3N and pray.
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My view is that say 3-2-5-3 hands don't want go through stayman either. I think it's not close and bidding stayman with such hands is auto destruction in pure form, especially if you usual sequence will be: 3C - 3H - 3S - 3N.
#28
Posted 2012-March-16, 16:49
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At MP i agree that the double is a bit painful.
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For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#29
Posted 2012-March-16, 17:10
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And you based that on what ?
Just to start the ball rolling with some numbers. Let's pick perfect hand for puppet stayman:
J65 98 KJ654 976
It's perfect because it's weak, the stronger the hand the difference between 4S and 3N is smaller.
According to dd simuls this hand make 4S whooping 17% more often than 3N opposite 5 spades. In practice 3N will score a bit better because 1st lead is much bigger factor against NT contracts but let's forget about it for a while.
17% is 1.7imp/board. How often do you find 5 spades in opener hand ? The answer to that according to my quick simul is 8/100 which means that by having puppet stayman in your arsenal you gain 13.6imp per 100 hand. Now, there are 88 hands left when you land in 3N anyway. If they beat you just 2 times when they otherwise wouldn't you are worse off.
If you are going to just deny my estimations there is no way I convince you or that I argue with you further about it. I am sure though that for anyone willing to make an effort of going through dealt hands it will be completely obvious that 2 out 88 is way below what they actually gain from being able to double your 3C and subsequent 3S bid in some auctions (supposedly after 3H denying majors and 3S as transfer to 3N).
And all that is for perfect hand for puppet. Don't forget all the usual hands when you are donating imps by introducing 3S = transfer to 3N as consequence of puppet.
#30
Posted 2012-March-16, 17:14
bluecalm, on 2012-March-16, 17:10, said:
Are you sure you're in the right thread?
-- Bertrand Russell
#31
Posted 2012-March-16, 17:20
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Which is to say this is wrong idea as hands which really doesn't want to bid puppet (or 3S) are very frequent and not only consist of some 4-3-3-3's and such.
#32
Posted 2012-March-16, 17:55
I do play 2NT - 3♣ - 3♥ - 3♠ as puppet to 3NT and 3NT as showing 5♠4♥.
And for bluecalm's comfort, I only use Muppet stayman when I hold 4 card major. (3361 is exception of course) It's not a tool to look for unlikely 5-3 fits but a more precise tool for opener to show shape and diagnose those 5-4 fits.
#33
Posted 2012-March-17, 01:19
For those worried about the lead directing problem with 2NT - 3♠, how many play 1NT - 2NT as natural and use a Stayman sequence to invite to 2NT? The lead directing and shape information given by the invitational Stayman sequence have been considered and deemed an acceptable loss for the use of 2NT for some other purpose (at least by the theorists who play it). The loss of an entire round of bidding by opening 2NT tilts the scales to using 3NT as a multi-way bid for me.
My preferred system:
2NT - 3♠ Relay to 3NT
3NT - 4♣ Confi
.......4♦ Super Confi
.......4♥ Heart fragment, 5-5 or better in the minors
.......4♠ Spade fragment, 5-5 or better in the minors
.......4NT 1=1=5=6, 5-6 in the minors
Confi and Super Confi are used with balanced or semi-balanced slam+ range hands and can also have 4 or 5 card spade suits so a lead directing double of 3♠ is more likely to end in 3♠XX than usual.
For those worried about forgetting their system, play 3NT to play or spend the time practicing so you remember. Do you ever add a new convention/treatment without practicing?
#34
Posted 2012-March-17, 01:27
You are all wrong and it will be obvious once computers are better than humans at bridge and could solve such problems leaving no doubts. I am writing this to quote myself in 10 years.
Gl playing your puppets and transfers to 3N
#35
Posted 2012-March-17, 04:05
I have played that, but 3NT sounds to natural and easy to forget.
#36
Posted 2012-March-17, 09:41
After 2N - 3♠, responder doesn't have spades, so a double is pretty safe with nearly any four card suit where we want the lead. At matchpoints, playing this method is borderline silly, considering the frequency of 2N - 3N plop. Even at teams I would want to see some hard evidence that the slams and better games we get to outweigh the lead considerations. I suppose someone of Frances and her partners caliber will not forget this treatment, but it seems outright dangerous for anyone below the elite level, and a single incident where a game or slam is lost because of the lapse takes years of good results to equalize it.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#37
Posted 2012-March-17, 12:05
Flameous, on 2012-March-16, 17:55, said:
Why not reverse these? This is how I play. Now you give them one less suit to double.
#38
Posted 2012-March-17, 12:11
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For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#40
Posted 2012-March-17, 12:14
MickyB, on 2012-March-17, 12:11, said:
Oh, OK. I didn't think of that, since I play Kokish, so with the most common range (20-b22) 4♠ is already wrongsided.