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Decision Time

#1 User is offline   BunnyGo 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 15:12

Team match Red vs. White:

AT9, AQJ86, Void, A9854

In second seat you open 1 heart (sorry inquiry), The bidding continues:

(P)-1-5-X
(P)-???

Now what?
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#2 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 15:41

5N pick a slam?
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#3 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 17:09

 phil_20686, on 2012-January-31, 15:41, said:

5N pick a slam?


I might with 4513 or 4504, but I think our clubs are good enough to suggest as trump.
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#4 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 17:23

6
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#5 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 18:23

Unless you agree to play negative doubles in this scenario (I cannot imagine it), any bid but pass seems suicidal to me. Partner could have diamonds as strong as KJxxx and no other valuable cards. You have 3 defensive aces. 5 diamonds will not make, could go for 800 in spite of the vulnerability, and there is no guarantee you can make a 5-level contract, let alone a slam. If you take out the double and partner indeed has something like xx xx KJxxx xxxx, you will never play opposite this partner again and it won't be your choice.

Larry Cohen and his Law of Total Tricks would argue strongly against bidding again here. It is quite possible that neither side has a 10 card fit, and there is every chance that neither side can make 11 tricks in any contract.

If you cannot defeat 5D with your 3 aces and partner's tricks, or if partner turns out to have nothing in diamonds and 4-card or 5-card heart support, where we have 11 or 12 tricks on top, you should consider switching to a new partner.

If it turns out you've got a game and can only set 5D by 500, or that you can make a slam against 800 or 1100, them's the breaks. Preempts have to work some of the time. I just think that it's far more likely that bidding again will reduce your score (or make it negative!) relative to what you'll collect against 5DX.
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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Posted 2012-January-31, 19:48

 HighLow21, on 2012-January-31, 18:23, said:

If you take out the double and partner indeed has something like xx xx KJxxx xxxx, you will never play opposite this partner again and it won't be your choice.

Quite likely it would be my choice.
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#7 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 19:50

highlow, everyone of a decent standard plays this as more t/o orientated. of course it will often be passed anyway though.

the hand you quoted just passes. if that means he collects 100 instead of 300 when opener's too weak to reopen, that's life.
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#8 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 20:25

I think wank is probably an appropriate name. Anyone who plays takeout doubles at the 5-level needs to find a new game.
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#9 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 20:39

Highlow, beginner forum is ---> that way.

5N for me, keeps spades in the picture, but I think 6C is fine too. This X is obviously t/o oriented.
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#10 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 20:41

 wyman, on 2012-January-31, 20:39, said:

Highlow, beginner forum is ---> that way.

5N for me, keeps spades in the picture, but I think 6C is fine too. This X is obviously t/o oriented.


:-)

Good luck. Your bidding methods are horrendously flawed.
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#11 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 20:48

I'm sure that all of the internationalists that play this way will be happy to discuss it with you. Seriously, you're out of your element.

Aren't you just on this site to promote your blog? Seems like half your posts are doing that already.
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg

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#12 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 21:00

 HighLow21, on 2012-January-31, 20:25, said:

I think wank is probably an appropriate name. Anyone who plays takeout doubles at the 5-level needs to find a new game.


Wow, just waltzing into the A/E and showing off your skills! :) Since you are new you might want to take some time to read some of the stickys posted first.

Anyway, double of these five level overcalls arent really negative, per se. They tend to be card showing and partner is expected to do 'something intelligent'. Much of the time partner has a balanced hand and sits, but here we have a hugely offensive hand. Bidding some kind of slam is warranted and I expect you'll see some intelligent discussions about the merits of 6 vs 5NT. Against a useful 12 count I expect to make slam enough of the time to make it worthwhile and partner could be much better.

If we choose to sit it's because we think our penalty against 5 is our best expectation, not because we are fantasizing about some trump stack partner does not have.
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#13 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 21:21

Wow. WOW! I'm really fascinated by the obnoxious arrogance of all 3 responses to my posts.

"Everyone of a decent standard..." Are you saying I don't have a decent standard? Ha.

I have plenty of partners of decent standard and they certainly wouldn't bid speculatively at this level under these conditions unless he was certain we were slamming somewhere. If he did, he would have something more descriptive to offer than "X."

I challenge you to construct a hand where bidding on over 5D doubled leads to a better score than passing and taking it down at least 4, maybe 6. You are bound to run into horrendous distribution in the side suits; your partner may have as many as 4 diamonds and 4 spades; you do not know whether partner's double is penalty or takeout unless you've specifically discussed the issue beforehand; you have lost a ton of room for exploration; and the probability that you have a 10-card fit that would justify bidding on is well under 50%.

All of these factors point toward leaving the double in and taking as many tricks as you can on defense.

On this hand, even with 29 HCP and a 9 card fit, you could go down because the defenders have a singleton or void in every side suit and you fail to successfully locate a jack here and an 8 there. The long suits are just no good.

For any such hand you can construct, where bidding on improves your score, I can construct a similar one where the opponents can set you in anything you bid, and 5D is down a telephone number. If partner had interest in a suit slam, he should have bid his suit.

Again --> if you have an agreement in this specific situation, then fine. But barring one that says something like this-is-a-"we-have-slam-on-this-hand-somewhere" double, I cannot imagine that bidding on is safe and there is no way 5D is going to be down any less than 3. Even if you stay at the 5 level you might be off a ruff and 2 side suit tricks.

And if you're using doubles as takeout over 5 level preempts, I would be thrilled to be your opponent. It means I can preempt you with impunity and you don't have a method to penalize me.

With respect to my blog, I encourage you to check it out and give any feedback, positive or negative. I just started it, it's a whopping 3 articles long so far, but I have 100 ideas and I'll be adding 3-4 articles a week. The more controversy and dissenting opinion the better. :-)
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#14 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 21:54

Phil, where do you find these "stickies"?
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#15 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 21:58

 HighLow21, on 2012-January-31, 21:21, said:

Wow. WOW! I'm really fascinated by the obnoxious arrogance of all 3 responses to my posts.

You did come in saying "Anyone who plays takeout doubles at the 5-level needs to find a new game," which is absurd, because it is far from expert standard to play this X as penalty.

Quote

"Everyone of a decent standard..." Are you saying I don't have a decent standard? Ha.

You are brand new to the forums. Most of us have a good sense of the level of the regular posters in the forum. We have no idea what level you are, but I'm not impressed so far.

Quote

I have plenty of partners of decent standard and they certainly wouldn't bid speculatively at this level under these conditions unless he was certain we were slamming somewhere. If he did, he would have something more descriptive to offer than "X."

You will get robbed blind.

Quote

I challenge you to construct a hand where bidding on over 5D doubled leads to a better score than passing and taking it down at least 4, maybe 6.

KQ87/K43/92/KJ103

Quote

You are bound to run into horrendous distribution in the side suits; your partner may have as many as 4 diamonds and 4 spades; you do not know whether partner's double is penalty or takeout unless you've specifically discussed the issue beforehand;

It is obnoxious to think that OP and his partner haven't discussed what their doubles are. I repeat: this is A/E, not B/I.


Quote

Again --> if you have an agreement in this specific situation, then fine.

They do. The double shows a hand with cards and no clear direction. "Maybe 5Dx is right; I can't bid a slam on my own, but I'm interested to hear more about your hand. And if you've nothing to say, pass."

Quote

But barring one that says something like this-is-a-"we-have-slam-on-this-hand-somewhere" double, I cannot imagine that bidding on is safe and there is no way 5D is going to be down any less than 3. Even if you stay at the 5 level you might be off a ruff and 2 side suit tricks.

You have practically the best hand ever when partner doubles. Frankly, I'm more worried about missing a grand than going down in 6.

Quote

And if you're using doubles as takeout over 5 level preempts, I would be thrilled to be your opponent. It means I can preempt you with impunity and you don't have a method to penalize me.

Doubles are frequently left in; that doesn't mean that they are penalty doubles. On frequency, you'll have a hand with no clear direction WAY more often than a pure penalty double after a 5-level preempt.
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#16 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 22:16

 HighLow21, on 2012-January-31, 21:21, said:


And if you're using doubles as takeout over 5 level preempts, I would be thrilled to be your opponent. It means I can preempt you with impunity and you don't have a method to penalize me.


Hi, welcome to forums.

I play this DBL as neither take-out nor penalty. I think playing this DBL as pure take out is as bad as playing it as pure penalty. Opener is expected to pass with majority of the hands due to the level. When he bids he must have serious reasons for it. One thing i never do is, to DBL with xx xxx KJxxx xxx. You may be my opponent and preempt like a maniac, but you seem to think that only way to penalize these type of preempts is direct DBL after the preemptor by a trump stack, which actually gives me some idea about you.

Can you punish opponents when they weak jump overcall with xxxxx and responder has AQT8x vs opener's KJ9 ? I hope not.

You are also underestimating the strategical upside of bidding 1 more time. I found myself over the years making accurate decisions and sitting on DBL to defeat them by 1-2-3 while we cant make anything, just to see that other table bid on and the guy with 8 or 9 took an insurance save. Don't tell me this never happened to you.


 HighLow21, on 2012-January-31, 21:21, said:


On this hand, even with 29 HCP and a 9 card fit, you could go down because the defenders have a singleton or void in every side suit and you fail to successfully locate a jack here and an 8 there. The long suits are just no good.
.


FYI these type of hands are easier ones if not the easiest, to declare.

Overall, i will not argue that you should bid with this hand. 5 level preempts are EXTREMELY heavy preempts and you are pretty much rolling the dice regardless of your decision, pass or bid compared to if you were left alone. In return you have much better accuracy to spot the location of cards needed in declarer play, much easier to count opponents hands in early stages of play etc..I would bid with this by the way.

First i thought Wyman was harsh on you, but after i saw your reply to Wank, who politely tried to explain you, i dont think u should complain about arrogance. You asked for it. Wyman doesnt usually welcome a newcomer to forums like that, and Wank is a decent poster as far as i know them.
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#17 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 22:32

 HighLow21, on 2012-January-31, 20:41, said:

:-)

Good luck. Your bidding methods are horrendously flawed.


Well, I guess mine are as well. This is an obvious 6C bid in my opinion. I prefer 6C to 5NT because the suit is a 5 carder. For me a 4504 would be more in line with a 5NT bid.
I think most people on this forum wold play this x as card showing rather that pure takeout. However it is NOT a penalty doulbe, though as others have stated, it can be left in and often is; not with this hand, though.

"you do not know whether partner's double is penalty or takeout unless you've specifically discussed the issue beforehand;"
By the way, the above comment is ridiculous if you are talking about any regular partnership.

"Unless you agree to play negative doubles in this scenario (I cannot imagine it),"
Are you aware that some pairs, (experts), play -ve Xs through 7S?
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#18 User is offline   sasioc 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 23:05

 HighLow21, on 2012-January-31, 21:21, said:

I challenge you to construct a hand where bidding on over 5D doubled leads to a better score than passing and taking it down at least 4, maybe 6.

For any such hand you can construct, where bidding on improves your score, I can construct a similar one where the opponents can set you in anything you bid, and 5D is down a telephone number. If partner had interest in a suit slam, he should have bid his suit.

Again --> if you have an agreement in this specific situation, then fine. But barring one that says something like this-is-a-"we-have-slam-on-this-hand-somewhere" double, I cannot imagine that bidding on is safe and there is no way 5D is going to be down any less than 3.



Feels like I'm stating the obvious but it doesn't feel like 5D is going for a telephone number either - isn't oppo reasonably likely to make 8 trump tricks? Might manage more on a bad day for defence - it's not impossible that declarer was dealt a 9 card suit and it's not impossible that dummy will hit with a useful shortage. 6 off is wishful thinking imo.

As other people have stated, a lot of people just play double here as meaning "I was dealt a good hand and I don't know what to do now that we've been pre empted". What are you planning on doing with a good flat hand at this point in the auction if you can't double? The idea is that partner passes it whenever he has something in trumps or when he doesn't really know what to do either but he has the chance to bid a slam on an offensive hand like this (or bid a suit at the 5 level ofc). If you think that double shows a diamond stack, what do you think people bid 5D on? Even at favourable, this guy isn't joking.

Fwiw I'm going for 6.
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#19 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 23:48

 HighLow21, on 2012-January-31, 21:54, said:

Phil, where do you find these "stickies"?


http://www.bridgebas...-forum-newbies/

Suggest you read the whole thread.
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#20 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2012-January-31, 23:54

having forgot to answer earlier, i'd bid 6, but would be very anxious about missing 7
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