han, on 2011-May-30, 23:48, said:
I trust you that it's bad but I posted my reasons! If partner has the heart king we're probably beating this anyway. If partner has the spade king then the spade ace gives us a better chance.
Hah I didn't say it was bad just weird (as in, usually with this theme, you lead the HA imo). Maybe it was obvious that the SA gives you a better chance to beat it when partner has the SK but you didn't state that explicitly and I didn't get it, sorry. If partner has the SK sometimes the SA is the losing option, but I guess I agree when he has the SK the SA will usually be best. I was genuinely asking you why you led the SA when the HA seemed normal since I was sure you had a good reason but didn't get it!
I still don't know about the SA lead, Having 3 heart tricks and a spade and a minor suit trick seems like the most likely way to beat it. Also, it is harder to get defenses right on the SA lead. Partner will not know we have AJx and might encourage with the SQ and HK when we had 5 tricks or something else like that. At least when we have AQ the likelihood of that is minimal. Perhaps on an auction like this where you bang down an unsupported ace a lot, you should just lead K from AK and forget about unblock/count cards in order to make the ace lead deny the king.
That said, nice hand and comments, it's definitely something to think about, I confess I would have just autopilot led the HA and not considered the merits of the SA.
a) 11-13NT, b) any 4441 11-15, c) unbal 4+♦ 11-15.
3♣ was invitational with 6+ clubs.
IMO ♥A = 10, ♥2 = 9, ♠ A = 8, ♠6 = 7, ♠J = 6, ♦8 = 5, ♣5 = 1.