[Cyberyeti]

---

3N, teams, W leads J♣, can you guarantee your contract against any lie of the opposing cards.

[1eyedjack]

The ansswer to the final question (can it be done) is yes. The answer to the first question (is it too easy) I would say is no. The bigger problem is noticing the opportunity at the table without being prompted. I doubt that I would.

[inquiry]

Isn't this a standard safety play? I would choose the 100% line at Matchpoints as you are giving up on the 68% chance for an easy overtrick, and I might not take it at imps as you are protecting only against a 2% chance once West follows to the safety play trick. That means 68% of the time you lose 2 imps for taking it, 2% of the time you could win 10 or 12 depending on vul, and the other times break even. Lets assume 1/2 vul, 1/2 not vul, so that you gain 11 imps on average when you take the safety play and it work. Then the safety play at imps would average out costing you an average of 1.38 imps per time you use it. That is something to consider here.

If you wanted to show you are a good card player, by all means take it. If you don't and you should have, you might have some explaining to do.

[1eyedjack]

Ben, did you leave a "not" out of your post? ("I would *not* choose etc at MP, etc")

[Cyberyeti]

inquiry, on 2011-February-26, 09:18, said:

Isn't this a standard safety play? I would choose the 100% line at Matchpoints as you are giving up on the 68% chance for an easy overtrick, and I might not take it at imps as you are protecting only against a 2% chance once West follows to the safety play trick. That means 68% of the time you lose 2 imps for taking it, 2% of the time you could win 10 or 12 depending on vul, and the other times break even. Lets assume 1/2 vul, 1/2 not vul, so that you gain 11 imps on average when you take the safety play and it work. Then the safety play at imps would average out costing you an average of 1.38 imps per time you use it. That is something to consider here.

If you wanted to show you are a good card player, by all means take it. If you don't and you should have, you might have some explaining to do.

I think you're missing a slight trick, there are 3 lines, fully safe, safe-ish and not safe at all. I think I'd take the middle one at the table at IMPS, but not play safe at all at matchpoints.

Spoiler

What do you do if you decide you're going to give up on 5 hearts with W, and play K♣ at trick 1, and Ace and another heart with both opps following low ? You can actually go off with H 4-1 and the A♦ over the Q if you cash ♥AK and get the bad news, they lead a club when in with the heart, and you can't afford to cash the Q♣ before knocking out the A♦, and you may not be able to get back to it if you don't. They can establish a second diamond before you establish a spade.

[inquiry]

1eyedjack, on 2011-February-26, 10:55, said:

Ben, did you leave a "not" out of your post? ("I would *not* choose etc at MP, etc")

You are correct... I surely meant I would not at matchpoints, and in all likelyhood not at imps either.

[nigel_k]

It's definitely not too easy because I'm not yet convinced there is an absolutely 100% line and I think I know the line that others are assuming is 100%.

[Trumpace]

nigel_k, on 2011-February-26, 14:41, said:

It's definitely not too easy because I'm not yet convinced there is an absolutely 100% line and I think I know the line that others are assuming is 100%.

♦ to Q to play ♥ towards A8 seems to work...

[Cyberyeti]

nigel_k, on 2011-February-26, 14:41, said:

It's definitely not too easy because I'm not yet convinced there is an absolutely 100% line and I think I know the line that others are assuming is 100%.

Ok, so what's wrong with

Spoiler

Winning the first club with the Q and playing a heart to the 8 ?

[nigel_k]

So you the first club with the Q and playing a heart towards the 8.

Let's say West has all five hearts and plays the 10 or J. Ducking that is no good because if West has all five hearts he can return another one. If you win the heart, you cannot unblock clubs yet so have to play a heart or a diamond. If you run the 8 of hearts West wins and returns another and you have no entry to hand and clubs still blocked. If you play a diamond to the queen and it wins and you lead a low heart from hand West can still play a third one.

But I think TrumpAce's line of a diamond to the queen at trick two is 100%.

[manudude03]

Deleted, missed the possibility of West having 5♥ and returning a club

TrumpAce's line seems best.

[Cyberyeti]

OK, this is actually more interesting than I thought, and yes, ♦ to the Q looks 100% safe.

What I think is practically the best line which is not 100% safe, but succeeds on all but 5 hearts with W and improves your chance of not dropping the overtrick, is to win the K♣, and then lead A♥ and the 8, playing low if only the 3 small cards have appeared.

What happened at the table was that partner won K♣, played ♥ from the top, but with the opening leader holding xx, x, Axxx, J109xxx, this was good enough as he has no good discard on the 5th heart.

[FrancesHinden]

This is a good hand on which to show the auction.

If you bid 1NT (14-16, 5-card majors allowed) - 2D (transfer) - 2S - 3NT - Pass then you can basically discount the possibility of five hearts with West, because he would have led one.

[Cyberyeti]

FrancesHinden, on 2011-February-27, 09:53, said:

This is a good hand on which to show the auction.

If you bid 1NT (14-16, 5-card majors allowed) - 2D (transfer) - 2S - 3NT - Pass then you can basically discount the possibility of five hearts with West, because he would have led one.

1N(12-14)-2♥(♠)-2♠-3N

So yes 5 hearts with W is vanishingly unlikely