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Blackjack... Is the right play counterintuitive?

#1 User is offline   Lobowolf 

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Posted 2010-August-18, 12:56

First hand off a 6-deck shoe: 11 for you, dealer has a 7 showing, but the down card was flashed, and it's a picture. You stop for a second as you're reaching for the auto-double, and then you...
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#2 User is offline   jjbrr 

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Posted 2010-August-18, 13:17

Posted Image
one timeeeeeeeee
OK
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#3 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2010-August-18, 13:21

Looks like we hit and it's not close. Our equity from doubling is about .3077 and our equity from hitting is about 0.46 (this is assuming infinite deck, in 6 deck it will be slightly less favorable, because 7 and T are good cards for you).
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#4 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2010-August-18, 15:59

i'd double down because usually when i get 10 or 11 the dealer has a 10 or ace up... so what the hell, let's gamble a bit
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#5 User is offline   jjbrr 

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Posted 2010-August-18, 16:22

luke warm, on Aug 18 2010, 03:59 PM, said:

i'd double down because usually when i get 10 or 11 the dealer has a 10 or ace up... so what the hell, let's gamble a bit

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=HkzMA1jrm00
OK
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#6 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2010-August-18, 19:40

If you don't count cards, would that make the play noncounterintuitive?
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#7 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2010-August-19, 04:00

jjbrr, on Aug 18 2010, 05:22 PM, said:

luke warm, on Aug 18 2010, 03:59 PM, said:

i'd double down because usually when i get 10 or 11 the dealer has a 10 or ace up... so what the hell, let's gamble a bit

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=HkzMA1jrm00

LOL... good find
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Posted 2010-August-19, 13:46

Smack it around with an around the world and back snap.
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#9 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2010-August-19, 14:38

Winstonm, on Aug 18 2010, 08:40 PM, said:

If you don't count cards, would that make the play noncounterintuitive?

OP said this was the first hand off of a six-deck shoe. So counting cards is not relevant.

I have not done the calculation, but I suspect that it is better to hit than to double down if you know the dealer has 17. You win only half as much as when you hit a K, Q, J, 10, 9, 8 or 7, but you turn a 2x loser into a 1x winner (or a push) when you hit an A, 2, 3, 4 or 5 and then hit again and make a hand.

If this were later in the shoe and you were counting cards, the odds might change. In a plus shoe it would make more sense to double down.
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