[Fluffy]

IMPs nobody vul, dealer east.

Q10764
J10
A8
AQ64


1♠-1NT!
2♣!-2NT

1NT f1R, 2♣ 3+

[pooltuna]

Fluffy, on Jun 23 2010, 04:21 PM, said:

IMPs nobody vul, dealer east.

Q10764
J10
A8
AQ64


1♠-1NT!
2♣!-2NT

1NT f1R, 2♣ 3+

I chicken...er pass

[junyi_zhu]

Fluffy, on Jun 23 2010, 09:21 PM, said:

IMPs nobody vul, dealer east.

Q10764
J10
A8
AQ64


1♠-1NT!
2♣!-2NT

1NT f1R, 2♣ 3+

Looks very close. Those two tens are very important IMO. I'd bid 3NT for sure when red. When white, there can be other considerations.

[Cascade]

I think this depends a little on how light you open.

If your openings are sound this is an easy pass.

If you open all 11s then you have some extras here - as well as the extra high cards you have a 4th club and two tens - so this is an easy raise.

[MickyB]

Cascade, on Jun 23 2010, 11:26 PM, said:

I think this depends a little on how light you open.

If your openings are sound this is an easy pass.

If you open all 11s then you have some extras here - as well as the extra high cards you have a 4th club and two tens - so this is an easy raise.

Also relevant - do you have any methods here for partner to show "good preference" to 2M?

[gwnn]

no please, ill just pass

[whereagles]

pass. In my experience, pard's 2NT is probably an overbid already.

[mikeh]

good hand for a good form of BART.

But white at imps, pass. They may pay a bonus for bidding game, but the imp swing from failing by one at 3N is almost the same as for making when the opps stop....so in imp terms, there is no significant bonus for bidding 50% games...and this one rates to be about that close, in the long run.

Red, I'd bid...

[jdonn]

They give a penalty for going down in game.

[Fluffy]

MickyB, on Jun 24 2010, 12:10 AM, said:

Cascade, on Jun 23 2010, 11:26 PM, said:

I think this depends a little on how light you open.

If your openings are sound this is an easy pass.

If you open all 11s then you have some extras here - as well as the extra high cards you have a 4th club and two tens - so this is an easy raise.

Also relevant - do you have any methods here for partner to show "good preference" to 2M?

no, there is no way for that, but expect partner to have 10-11 with 2 spades or 11-12 with singleton most likelly.


today partner held


Kx
Qxxx
KQJxx
xx

and everything was onside, 10 tricks are avaible.

[Apollo81]

I am happy with pass. The spade holding sucks unless partner has Hx, and even then we'll need a reasonable break to make game.

[whereagles]

Treating this superb 11 the same way as an assorted 11 junkyard seems like a gross misevaluation to me lol. I consider his 2NT a blame-transfer bid.

[bluecalm]

It depends on how your system is structured and how light you open.
For me every 13 is auto 3NT in this sequence but partner won't bid 2NT with 10. He will be 11-12 always (and when playing precision most of the time 12).
I don't consider it as judgement question more as systemic one.

[gwnn]

I agree with whereagles but what are the alternatives? It's a tight spot, forcing to game on that hand seems a little excessive.

[bluecalm]

Quote

Treating this superb 11 the same way as an assorted 11 junkyard seems like a gross misevaluation to me lol. I consider his 2NT a blame-transfer bid.

So what would you bid with this hand ?
I think passing opener hands is an error if there is any.

[hanp]

mikeh, on Jun 24 2010, 12:33 PM, said:

But white at imps, pass. They may pay a bonus for bidding game, but the imp swing from failing by one at 3N is almost the same as for making when the opps stop....so in imp terms, there is no significant bonus for bidding 50% games...and this one rates to be about that close, in the long run.

First of all the odds are still 6-5, second of all sometimes you make fewer than 8 tricks.

[bluecalm]

Quote

there is no significant bonus for bidding 50% games...and this one rates to be about that close, in the long run.

First of all the odds are still 6-5, second of all sometimes you make fewer than 8 tricks.

And in team matches there is psychological factor. If you make thin game or two it will tilt the hell out of them

[mikeh]

hanp, on Jun 25 2010, 12:13 PM, said:

mikeh, on Jun 24 2010, 12:33 PM, said:

But white at imps, pass. They may pay a bonus for bidding game, but the imp swing from failing by one at 3N is almost the same as for making when the opps stop....so in imp terms, there is no significant bonus for bidding 50% games...and this one rates to be about that close, in the long run.

First of all the odds are still 6-5, second of all sometimes you make fewer than 8 tricks.

what part of 'almost the same' didn't you understand?

When comparing two integers, it seems difficult to imagine what 'almost the same' can mean more clearly than that the two numbers are adjacent to each other. If they were any closer, they wouldn't be 'almost the same'...they'd be 'exactly the same'!

And on those few occasions when we take fewer than 8 tricks, passing 2N wins 2 imps. Conversely, when we take 10 tricks, the imp swing remains unchanged....430-180 is the same as 400-150, last time I used my calculator.

So this in fact makes the imp odds even closer....certainly fractionally better than 6-5. And this ignores the possibility that LHO may be sitting with, say, AKJ9 of spades and the sort of hand to make a speculative double of a game that seems to have been bid on marginal values. Again, this is only a fractional change, but argues that the imp odds are in fact closer than 6-5.

Thus, as seems to happen distressingly often, I don't understand your post.

And, for bluecalm: no, it doesn't tilt the hell out of me when the opps bid and make a thin game to win 6 imps, anymore than I high-five my partner when they go down and we win 5. This is clearly a close decision and if you get bent out of shape every time the opps guess right or you guess wrong on close decisions, you won't be a very tough opponent....you'll be a basket case long before the half way point of any long match.

[aguahombre]

this hand is an example of why we will never be experts. We don't think enough.

With the style which doesn't automatically open all 11's with 1S we would consider this hand a crummy 13. Responder's hand shows pretty much what she had, and would never have rebid 2NT on less than 11. The crummy 13 actually looks pretty good for NT, and opener would raise to game.

Whether 3NT made or went down it is doubtfull we would bother to remember or discuss it later.

[bluecalm]

Quote

So this in fact makes the imp odds even closer....certainly fractionally better than 6-5. And this ignores the possibility that LHO may be sitting with, say, AKJ9 of spades and the sort of hand to make a speculative double of a game that seems to have been bid on marginal values. Again, this is only a fractional change, but argues that the imp odds are in fact closer than 6-5.

Thus, as seems to happen distressingly often, I don't understand your post.

His point is this:

Assume the distribution of tricks we can take in NT is something like that:

40% - 9 tricks
40% - 8 tricks
20% - 7 tricks

Now bidding 3NT compared to pass : (assume for simplicty 100 hands)

Wins 6imps in 40 hands
Loses 5 imps in 40 hands
Loses 2imps in 20 hands

Which makes it exactly break even proposition despite game being below "needed" 45% not vulnerable.

I admit that this effect is negligible when hands are balanced and we are bidding NT (if one hand holds 6card suit for example the game may depend on which side establish their tricks first and the distribution may look like 40-30-30 for example which makes bidding 3NT +0.3imp decision despite game being still only 40%).

Quote

whether 3NT made or went down it is doubtfull we would bother to remember or discuss it later.

Actually I thought about it a lot and we have agreement when playing polish club that with 15 count opener needs to make a move himself so 2NT is always 11/weak 12. This was possible because 1NT is solid in PC.
I think this situation is difficult and I don't think passing is clear error but if anybody could do something differently it's opener.