The biggest inference that we can take from the
♣10 switch is that the hearts are 3-3. If they weren't breaking, South wouldn't risk leading away from the
♣KT, not knowing who holds the
♣J.
<changed previous rest-of-post to the following>
I would expect South to hold the
♦8 and North to hold the
♦T from what happened on trick 1. In this case South has led from J8xx, a terrible lead against NT IMO. It was probably his only 4-card suit, or maybe it's possible from the diamond spots that it was a 5 card suit.
So if he was 3343, with
♥KJx, he might have played the
♥K on the second round of that suit, forcing an entry into North's hand. If he did that, we might assume the hearts are 4-2 (North with 4) and finesse clubs out of desperation, which is what he would want if he doesn't hold the K. Therefore North is likely to hold 4 clubs and both round suit Kings, so I would go up with the
♣A and play a third heart.
This post has been edited by Apollo81: 2010-June-21, 14:47