[kfgauss]

Try to forget partner's hand . . .

You hold AKQJxx Qx A10 Kxx in 3rd seat.

P 1S
2C 4D
4H ?

You splintered at your second turn, and will have to live with it. What do you bid now?

[In case you're wondering, this hand splintered for several reasons:
a. our methods had no general slam try over drury (you could make a long suit try [in clubs I assume] and then plan on cuebidding later)
b. this hand judged that most hands that make slam opposite will need stuff in hearts and clubs, and not so many hands with the ♦K make slam
c. it's lead-avoiding

Feel free to comment on this.]

Andy

[Miron]

4♠. The chance for slam is rather very poor (need something like: ♠xxx ♥AJx ♦Kxx (or singleton) ♣AQxx (or dubleton) - the ♥J and ♣Q can be changed, just to stay at one finesse). Partner won't have ♠xxxx ♥AJxxxx ♦x ♣Ax (the only card bellow openning bid).

[mr1303]

Ick.

I really dislike the splinter on a hand like this. Partner will get far too excited when he has no wastage in diamonds, when I really don't want to excite him.

I would just have signed off in 4♠ initially, and now certainly sign off.

Partner needs something like:

xxx
AKx
xxx
AQxx

to make slam good, and he can't have that hand.

[kfgauss]

mr1303, on Jun 9 2006, 09:22 AM, said:

Partner needs something like:

xxx
AKx
xxx
AQxx

to make slam good, and he can't have that hand.

That hand makes 7S cold.

[Edit: and 7N. Also, Miron, you seem to be giving hands that are on a finesse *for the grand* as well.]

[Miron]

You're right,
but the same argument are for 6♠. You need
♠xxxx ♥AJxxx ♦xx ♣QJx minimum for bad slam,
♠xxxx ♥AKxxx ♦xx ♣QJx for a good one
♠xxx ♥AJxx ♦x ♣QJxxx for a tight one
♠xxx ♥AKxx ♦xx ♣QJxx for a nice one
So: you need an good hand without diamonds from partner. 4♠. If partner would bid further I would tend to sign off at 5♠ (4♦ are misleading).

[jdonn]

Why is slam so unlikely???

What about
xxx AKxx xxxx Qx?
xxxx x Kxxx AQxx?
xxx AKJx xxx Qxx?
xxx KJxx Qxxx Ax

Pretty much all I need is second round heart control, third round club control, either missing keycard, and a parking place for the diamond. That really isn't very much to ask.

I agree that just committing to slam via blackwood or something is too much, but giving up is very premature.

And I dislike the splinter. The diamond king is a working card. If you really really feel the need to make a fake splinter, which I can't imagine myself feeling, it should be in a suit with the king instead of the ace (ideal is KQ tight or KQJ tight), because then you know partner has no secondary values in the suit to discourage him. I would just have bid 3♣ on this hand and taken it from there.

[jdonn]

Miron, on Jun 9 2006, 06:03 AM, said:

♠xxxx ♥AJxxx ♦xx ♣QJx minimum for bad slam

Uh, isn't that a really good slam, presuming a spade entry or two to dummy?
EDIT: "Really good" is an overbid, I was thinking I had Kx of hearts at the time, not Qx.

Miron, on Jun 9 2006, 06:03 AM, said:

♠xxxx ♥AKxxx ♦xx ♣QJx for a good one

This one is 100%, barring an extraordinarilly unlikely ruff.

Miron, on Jun 9 2006, 06:03 AM, said:

♠xxx ♥AJxx ♦x ♣QJxxx for a tight one

Likewise 100%.
EDIT: Same as above. I'll just keep what I said originally, but it's not 100%.

Miron, on Jun 9 2006, 06:03 AM, said:

♠xxx ♥AKxx ♦xx ♣QJxx for a nice one

100% again.

Miron, on Jun 9 2006, 06:03 AM, said:

So: you need an good hand without diamonds from partner. 4♠. If partner would bid further I would tend to sign off at 5♠ (4♦ are misleading).

I gave examples or normal hands for partner that make slam, and some have the K or Q of diamonds.

Partner will never bid again if you bid 4♠. A hand worth that would have bid keycard over 4♦.

[pclayton]

Andy: Try to be VERY defined with any call that gobbles up a lot of space like 4♦. It really wouldn't occur to me. And as 1303 says, why should pard have to discount the K♦? Its a great card on this bidding.

Whats wrong with 2♦ and wait to hear what pard has to say? I could even live with a nice forcing 2N.

4♦ should be exactly a 5 loser hand. Something like: AKxxx, Axx, x, KQJx seems ideal.

[kfgauss]

Conclusion:

Scoring: IMP

-- P
1S 2C
4D 4H
4S P

---

Not so terrible to miss this slam, but it is roughly 70%, and cold on a heart lead (and, while the 4th club means it's still almost 70% on a diamond lead, without that 4th club it's still quite good on a non-diamond lead [since cold on a heart lead and 50% otherwise].)

I'm not confident that the auction will go well after 3♣. My partnership didn't have a nat GF 2NT available, but I suppose 2♦ and then cuebidding if partner bids at the 3-level and, at worst, reverting to the splinter if partner bids 2♠, is a decent plan.

In any case, I (the 4D bidder) hoped partner would be able to bid on with a hand like East's, and that I'd done enough. If my hand is willing to push to the 5-level frequently, starting with 3♣ (or 2♦) looks rather more attractive.

Though the splinter isn't perfect, certainly, I will note that opposite Josh's example with the ♦Q, xxx KJxx Qxxx Ax, slam is very good on a non-diamond lead even if partner doesn't have the Queen. (Though, admittedly, my 4S bid over 4H wasn't getting us there.)

Andy

[pclayton]

kfgauss, on Jun 9 2006, 10:15 AM, said:

Conclusion:

Scoring: IMP

-- P
1S 2C
4D 4H
4S P

---

Not so terrible to miss this slam, but it is roughly 70%, and cold on a heart lead (and, while the 4th club means it's still almost 70% on a diamond lead, without that 4th club it's still quite good on a non-diamond lead [since cold on a heart lead and 50% otherwise].)

I'm not confident that the auction will go well after 3♣. My partnership didn't have a nat GF 2NT available, but I suppose 2♦ and then cuebidding if partner bids at the 3-level and, at worst, reverting to the splinter if partner bids 2♠, is a decent plan.

In any case, I (the 4D bidder) hoped partner would be able to bid on with a hand like East's, and that I'd done enough. If my hand is willing to push to the 5-level frequently, starting with 3♣ (or 2♦) looks rather more attractive.

Though the splinter isn't perfect, certainly, I will note that opposite Josh's example with the ♦Q, xxx KJxx Qxxx Ax, slam is very good on a non-diamond lead even if partner doesn't have the Queen. (Though, admittedly, my 4S bid over 4H wasn't getting us there.)

Andy

How is this a 70% slam on a diamond lead?

It seems you either need clubs 3-3 or a rounded suit squeeze. Feels like closer to 50%, but I'm too lazy to do the exact math .

[jdonn]

pclayton, on Jun 9 2006, 01:20 PM, said:

kfgauss, on Jun 9 2006, 10:15 AM, said:

Conclusion:

Scoring: IMP

-- P
1S 2C
4D 4H
4S P

---

Not so terrible to miss this slam, but it is roughly 70%, and cold on a heart lead (and, while the 4th club means it's still almost 70% on a diamond lead, without that 4th club it's still quite good on a non-diamond lead [since cold on a heart lead and 50% otherwise].)

I'm not confident that the auction will go well after 3♣. My partnership didn't have a nat GF 2NT available, but I suppose 2♦ and then cuebidding if partner bids at the 3-level and, at worst, reverting to the splinter if partner bids 2♠, is a decent plan.

In any case, I (the 4D bidder) hoped partner would be able to bid on with a hand like East's, and that I'd done enough. If my hand is willing to push to the 5-level frequently, starting with 3♣ (or 2♦) looks rather more attractive.

Though the splinter isn't perfect, certainly, I will note that opposite Josh's example with the ♦Q, xxx KJxx Qxxx Ax, slam is very good on a non-diamond lead even if partner doesn't have the Queen. (Though, admittedly, my 4S bid over 4H wasn't getting us there.)

Andy

How is this a 70% slam on a diamond lead?

It seems you either need clubs 3-3 or a rounded suit squeeze. Feels like closer to 50%, but I'm too lazy to do the exact math .

You make if clubs break or the long club has the heart king. That can be calculated pretty precisely I think, not counting for something outrageous like a club opening lead being ruffed.

3-3 is 35.53%
4-2 is 48.45
5-1 is 14.53
I'll ignore 6-0 and round up at the end.

Heart king with club length
If 4-2, 45%
If 5-1, 40%

So .3553+.4845*.45+.1453*.4 = 63.14%

The times you make with the 6-0 club break, plus the chance of a double squeeze if diamonds are 6-2, I would say combine to add a couple percent, so call it 65%. And of course this is all on a diamond (or club or spade) lead, you might get a heart lead making you virtually 100%.

So clearly worth being in.