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BBO Bridge Master Level 3 B-18 How does the Principle of Restricted Choice work here?

#1 User is offline   LashOut 

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Posted 2026-February-05, 20:34

As the game comes to the penultimate trick, South has to decide whether to finesse East for diamond J.

But I believe finessing only caters one situation where East has diamond J with other three low cards.

And playing for elimination caters the other situation where West has diamond J with diamond T and a low card.

If this stands, the Principle of Restricted Choice only applies to 50% chance of winning.

So where do I get my mathematics wrong?
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