[Shugart23]

Making a blind opening lead against a NT contract case I. A-K -x x x Case II A-Q -x-x-x Case3 III A-Q -x-x. Case 4 K-J-x-x

In Case I, are you leading the King or leading a low spot card. Case II,III, and IV are you leading low or looking for another suit to lead ? Assume you have an outside Ace for an entry. Are the answers different if you don't have a likely entry? Thanks much .

[mikeh]

I’m afraid I don’t have a simple answer for you. For me, the answer is ‘it depends’.

On what?

I need to assess my entire hand, not just the suit that I’m considering.

Then, and of no less importance, I need to draw inferences from the auction. Even a simple auction such as 1N (P) 3N tells us something…responder has about 9-15 hcp and no five card major and usually no 4 card major (although with say 14 hcp and 4333 shape with a weak 4 card major I’d often bid 3N rather than stayman)

Then I need to consider my goal….is setting the contract paramount or is my main or equal goal not to blow an overtrick…iow am I playing matchpoints or imps.

For example, with AKxxx and no entry I’d usually lead low but with AKxxx and a side ace I might lead high.

With AQxx at mps I’d at least consider a different suit…say xxx….if I felt that partner has some cards such that he’ll likely get on lead…by leading top of nothing then using reverse smith I get to suggest a switch.

I strongly recommend reading. Bird and Anthias’s books on opening leads, while flawed (imo) by not sufficiently acknowledging the biases caused by reliance on double double simulations, is a tremendous resource. The topic is far to complex to be fully addressed in any thread in this or any other forum.

[Tramticket]

Who said "Blind leads are for death players"? The auction is important.

Our standard partnership leads are fourth highest and that will often be right, depending upon the auction. I might sometimes lead the king with Case I and I am more likely to do that if I have an outside entry. I would also be considering whether partner is likely to gain the lead; the number of cards I expect partner to hold in the suit; the likelihood of partner holdimng an honour in the suit and so on.

Case II is an attractive lead and I would usually lead fourth highest. But the bidding and the rest of the hand might sometimes indicate otherwise.

Case III and IV: Four-card suits are much less attractive than five-card suits, but I do have two honours. Again you need to look at your full hand in the context of the auction.

Other things to consider:
- What is the contract? 1NT, 2NT, 3NT and 6NT might all suggest subtley different approaches. I would tend to be passive against 2NT (say) and probably wouldn't favour leading the broken four-card suit, but these leads might appeal more against 3NT.
- Form of scoring: I would be more likely to make an attacking lead at IMPs than pairs.
- Spot cards: You have shown as X, but there is a lot of diffeence between AQ109 and AQ32.

[apollo1201]

Tramticket, on 2024-February-29, 09:44, said:

Other things to consider:
- What is the contract? 1NT, 2NT, 3NT and 6NT might all suggest subtley different approaches.

4th highest in case I will probably not be a great success against 6NT😁😁

[jillybean]

You can pick up Winning leads cheap in NZ

https://www.bridgesh...ck-edition.html

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

as mentioned have a look at the Bird / Anthias book.

What they do is asking, how would you play the suit, if you know partners holding to
maximize the chances to get the maximum number of tricks.

If you have AKxxx:

#1 if partner has nothing you start with a blanko coup, i.e. you play low, to keep
communication open, after that you cask AK to hope for friendly splits

#2 if partner has a honor, the honor on the short suit side should be played first
to avoid blockage, i.e. you play low to partners honor.

If you have an additional outside entry, an Ace, this means partner is basically broke,
you can start with the Ace to see, if you can establish your suit on power alone, the
chances that partner showes up with an useful honor is low ( he is broke ), hence you
need friendly splits to establish the suit.

..........

If you attack from broken honor sequences, you basically lead away from honors to
sail towards unknown shores, you lead into declarer, most of the time, he will hold
be strongest hand, i.e. you sail into lots of tenances.
Would you do this, if you would know, that partner had nothing?
You would consider it, if the prize are add. tricks, but a broken 4 card suit can at most
bring in 4 tricks.

Is this all? No, but it may be a start.

[thepossum]

I know my opinion probably means nothing but I usually lead high in case 1 and maybe a different suit in the other ones

It depends on the rest of my hand though. I can't decide now

Against 7nt I probably lead an Ace

[apollo1201]

thepossum, on 2024-March-01, 15:18, said:

Against 7nt I probably lead an Ace

Yes, it even covers the case of a further revoke by partner, the trick cannot be transferred.