[thepossum]

Hi all

Last hand of IMPs tourney, doing well, looking for another positive score to finish and you are dealt this, red vs white etc

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My instinct told me to pass and guarantee positive points at least, but decided to go for the IMPs and bid 3NT-1 for a smallish but annoying negative score

Simulations suggest that 3NT is the right bid on average over time - over many such hands - with a decent positive score hopefully

What do you reckon. Am I resulting too much. Are there any clues in the hand to guide you

[Gilithin]

thepossum, on 2023-April-28, 20:55, said:

Are there any clues in the hand to guide you

The biggest clue would be your NT range and invite style.

[shyams]

I'd bid 3NT.

[Cyberyeti]

shyams, on 2023-April-28, 23:40, said:

I'd bid 3NT.

Think I would too at IMPs, it's very close at MPs, really depends on your invite style

[AL78]

It looks like one of those awkward right in the middle hands but vulnerable at IMPS I would bid 3NT based on the cooperating honor cards and ♣T9 backing up the queen.

[helene_t]

You have 16 which is above average. And it is imps so you should accept more than 50% of invites.
All honours work and you have T9 I a long suit. So it's not a bad 16 count.
I bid 3nt.

[DavidKok]

I would bid 3NT, and without knowing your partner's hand I would probably have bid 3NT with that as well.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

you are red, it is IMPs, you go for it.

But it is cerainly a hand, where it is basically break even,
and than it comes down to, what do you hate more, when the
decision you took was wrong.
If you have play a team match with humans, it is easier to
defend the -1, instead of the +1.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[bluenikki]

Your winners are slow. So if partner has no spade help, you'll need to avoid a spade lead. Of course, in that situation, a spade lead will often beat 2NT as well, so I don't know how to put that into the analysis.

[Cyberyeti]

bluenikki, on 2023-April-29, 06:14, said:

Your winners are slow. So if partner has no spade help, you'll need to avoid a spade lead. Of course, in that situation, a spade lead will often beat 2NT as well, so I don't know how to put that into the analysis.

Partner very likely has 4 spades (slightly more likely than 4 hearts and he may have both).

[bluenikki]

Cyberyeti, on 2023-April-29, 08:09, said:

Partner very likely has 4 spades (slightly more likely than 4 hearts and he may have both).

If it's 4 small, that still leaves 3 losers. And you will probably have to give up the lead twice.

And the more spade honors they have, the less help you get elsewhere.

[Cyberyeti]

bluenikki, on 2023-April-29, 08:36, said:

If it's 4 small, that still leaves 3 losers. And you will probably have to give up the lead twice.

And the more spade honors they have, the less help you get elsewhere.

Ideally something like Q1098 but you have to have 6 card fits somewhere. Game can be anywhere from excellent (QJ10x, Q10xx, Kx, Jxx) to terrible (xxxx, AQxx, Kx, xxx)

It's a guess, but bal 25 should bid game most of the time at IMPs

[helene_t]

I just noticed that 2NT was explained as 9 points. I would expect partner to have 8 points more often. One reason is that with one or both major suits, partner will use Stayman on any 8-count and some 7-counts, so with 9 points they might well bid 3NT next to avoid making 2NT too wide-ranging.

Of course points schmoints but if 2nt really shows 9, 3NT is easy to bid now.

[thepossum]

All of us going with the field so the minus score was fairly small - still annoying

Sadly as I will show the 9HCPs was only two Aces - but Sims still show a chance of a positive score on average over time - biased of course by the Vulnerable game no doubt

I am just upset I did not go with my gut feeling for a simple positive score on the last hand - and a few nice extra IMPs

Maybe this should be moved to the other forum now. Apologies. However I was genuinely interested with the considerations and am genuinely relieved that I went with the majority - is there not some game strategy where going against the field occasionally can be a winner