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One over the eight

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2022-January-12, 10:10


Lead J. If you play a spade to the queen at trick two, East plays the 8 and West the three. Your go.

And how would you play 6S by North in the other room (after the start 1C*-1S) on the jack of diamonds lead? Again you lead a spade and East plays the 8 and West the three. Your go.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#2 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2022-January-12, 13:12

Win Q. Play on trumps. When defence take their ace, win the return, draw all trumps, cash AKQ. If they are 3-3 or JT come down or West shows stiff T or J I have my 12th trick (via a marked finesse if necessary). If that doesn't gain, cash my remaing heart winner(s) and watch the discards (I am counting the opposing distribution on the play of spades and hearts as well). There are two possibilities: 1. Either defender holds the club queen and the outstanding diamond and is squeezed. 2. The club finesse works. I cannot say for sure what I would play for as it depends on the count of the hand so far, and I am not great at working out probabilities where multiple suit layouts need to be considered. If someone starts squirming on the last heart winner, that might sway me toward the squeeze, and the mark of the club expert is to go down on a failed squeeze attempt whilst everyone else takes the boring finesse which works.
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#3 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2022-January-12, 13:24

This looks like a classic false card position, either E has A108x, or 8. If he has A108x he's dropping the 8 to give you a 2 way option as you can now pick up A10xx with his partner.

Of course there are several 3-2 breaks where they also play the 8

Who is E and are they good enough that this is routine for them ? I would be inclined to play the trumps normally as the 8 is slightly risky if a false card in that his partner might have a stiff 9.
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#4 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2022-January-12, 14:45

View PostAL78, on 2022-January-12, 13:12, said:

Win Q. Play on trumps. When defence take their ace, win the return, draw all trumps ...

I think if the trumps are 3-2 you have three trumps, three hearts, three diamonds, two clubs and a club ruff. Cyberyeti is right that the eight could well be a false card. If South is dummy, that is safe, but if North is ...?
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#5 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2022-January-12, 15:13

View Postlamford, on 2022-January-12, 14:45, said:

I think if the trumps are 3-2 you have three trumps, three hearts, three diamonds, two clubs and a club ruff. Cyberyeti is right that the eight could well be a false card. If South is dummy, that is safe, but if North is ...?


This is why you play the trump from dummy rather than leading a high one from hand if North is dummy, classic technique
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#6 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2022-January-12, 16:11

If the 8 is a true card, the 3 is a false card from AT32. I find that more impressive than to spot the 8 falsecard from AT82 ("nobody randomises their 3's"), despite the fact that it was led from dummy. So I'm catering to East having a 4-card suit, small to the jack.
Mind you, we still need something extra to make in this case. There's diamonds 3-3, club queen dropping, club queen on a finesse, diamond JT dropping, diamond J/T dropping and finessing East for the other one, smothering the diamond 8/T/J (pick which) and a minor suit squeeze. At the table I'd hopefully have time to plan ahead - as a spur of the moment decision I'll play a small spade to the jack.
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#7 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2022-January-12, 16:20

View PostDavidKok, on 2022-January-12, 16:11, said:

If the 8 is a true card, the 3 is a false card from AT32. I find that more impressive than to spot the 8 falsecard from AT82 ("nobody randomises their 3's"), despite the fact that it was led from dummy. So I'm catering to East having a 4-card suit, small to the jack.
Mind you, we still need something extra to make in this case. There's diamonds 3-3, club queen dropping, club queen on a finesse, diamond JT dropping, diamond J/T dropping and finessing East for the other one, smothering the diamond 8/T/J (pick which) and a minor suit squeeze. At the table I'd hopefully have time to plan ahead - as a spur of the moment decision I'll play a small spade to the jack.


If E has A108x and ANY 4 diamonds you don't have to pick the diamonds up, you can simply ruff one on the table, I agree with spade to the J
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#8 User is online   mikeh 

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Posted 2022-January-12, 17:20

View PostDavidKok, on 2022-January-12, 16:11, said:

If the 8 is a true card, the 3 is a false card from AT32. I find that more impressive than to spot the 8 falsecard from AT82 ("nobody randomises their 3's"), despite the fact that it was led from dummy. So I'm catering to East having a 4-card suit, small to the jack.
Mind you, we still need something extra to make in this case. There's diamonds 3-3, club queen dropping, club queen on a finesse, diamond JT dropping, diamond J/T dropping and finessing East for the other one, smothering the diamond 8/T/J (pick which) and a minor suit squeeze. At the table I'd hopefully have time to plan ahead - as a spur of the moment decision I'll play a small spade to the jack.

If east is good enough to smoothly play the 8 from A108x then his partner is probably good enough to falsecard with the 3 from A1032. Heck, this is the sort of falsecard that some defenders make inadvertently, not paying much attention.

As for nobody randomizing 3’s and 2’s, it should be routine unless count/attitude is useful to the opps.

Ever watch a good declarer? I’ve never tried to track this but my guess is that in the early play most good declarers falsecard spot cards from hand on at least half the boards. It’s not so easy as a defender since much of the time one has to be aware that partner may be looking for some information from you, that falsecarding distorts. However, this sort of situation is perfect for randomizing.

I think it’s extremely close and at the table, face to face, I might have got a very tiny clue, but usually not…certainly not against really good players. My guess, and really that’s all it is, is to play east for an honest card since, as cyber points out, the 8 is not a cost-free falsecard, while the 3 definitely is. So I lay down the Queen.
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#9 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2022-January-12, 17:45

View PostCyberyeti, on 2022-January-12, 16:20, said:

If E has A108x and ANY 4 diamonds you don't have to pick the diamonds up, you can simply ruff one on the table, I agree with spade to the J
I didn't see an easy way to combine this with playing East for 4 spades, West for 4 diamonds and a showup squeeze in diamonds-clubs. If you have to commit it's not free to pick it up, since you must postpone drawing trumps to ruff a fourth diamond. That's why I said the continuation was too complicated for me, I'd rather see the second round of trumps first.

Also I agree with mikeh, it was more meant as a confession. I don't randomise my 3's and 2's enough, and I'm hoping my opponents won't either.
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#10 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2022-January-13, 01:18

How about leading the J at trick 3 and then guard against East/West having the outstanding trumps if it's covered/not covered, respectively? :unsure:

The idea is that

* West will tend to cover if he has the queen
* the queen is more likely to be in the hand with longer clubs
* a stiff spade is more likely to be in the hand with longer clubs

.
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#11 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2022-January-13, 06:45


This is quite interesting. I think you should lead low towards the king and hope it goes 8, K, 9. Just an extra chance. Also if you first lead low to the jack, and West plays the 8, 9 or T and East wins with the ace, now you play for trumps to be 2-3 not 1-4.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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