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Safe or Sorry Your Lead

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-August-08, 10:21



Welsh Cup, between number one and number two seeds, so strong event! Your lead.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#2 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2021-August-08, 13:10

What is the auction if we don't open 3♦?
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#3 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2021-August-08, 14:18

partner did not raise ♦ so I will go for crazy and lead ♥K, small ♥ may block suit
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#4 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2021-August-08, 14:28

♥J
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#5 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-August-08, 15:11

Pard probably has spades controlled so I don’t see the urgency - only if declarer has a running club suit would a busy defense be needed. Declarer was pressured to find a bid so his stopper may not be robust. I will lead a low diamond.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."
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#6 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2021-August-08, 15:22

I lead a club.

Spades may not be sitting well (although they may be solid, of course) and going passive may well be best.

If I were looking to get into the newspaper, I’d lead the heart King, but the odds are I’d be in for all the wrong reasons.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#7 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2021-August-08, 15:24

View Postmikeh, on 2021-August-08, 15:22, said:

I lead a club.

Spades may not be sitting well (although they may be solid, of course) and going passive may well be best.

If I were looking to get into the newspaper, I’d lead the heart King, but the odds are I’d be in for all the wrong reasons.


I was tossing a coin whether to say it, but given the company I agree B-)
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#8 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-August-08, 16:33

View PostDavidKok, on 2021-August-08, 13:10, said:

What is the auction if we don't open 3♦?

Unless you have a "Tardis" you are not entitled to that. But East will open 1S, and it may go 1NT-3S-4S uncontested. That is cold, so be grateful you have opened 3D and made them guess a bit.

The SIM 'break' percentages:
10♠ 36%
10♦ 29%
J♥ 43%
5♣ 38

I made certain assumptions which, of course, may be erroneous. I think the diamond lead at the table, when your suit could not be much worse, was a poor choice.

Partner has AQxxx in hearts of course, and this is a clear case of my "aftertiming"!
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#9 User is offline   HardVector 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 12:16

T♠
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#10 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 12:52

I would have led a club on this auction, for what it's worth. And I would not have bid 3♦. Well done making them guess!
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#11 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-August-11, 08:26

View PostDavidKok, on 2021-August-09, 12:52, said:

I would have led a club on this auction, for what it's worth. And I would not have bid 3♦. Well done making them guess!

It was our teammates who had to guess, and the opponents "misguessed" to lead a diamond; a little bid wooden in my opinion.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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