[AL78]

Teams, playing 5CM, strong NT.

---

Your call?

[Cyberyeti]

Do you have any methods here ? many people play an artificial bid over 2♣ inv+

All you need is xxx, Kx, xxxxx, Axx in theory to make 5♣ or the ace of clubs and enough to stop them running 5 diamonds for 3N.

Teams I'm probably having a go.

[mw64ahw]

Typically I would pass 3♣, but would hope to make 4 with West's hand, so I guess some sort of trump suit game try could be used although 3NT may well be making with Ax(x)♣

[nullve]

How can people not bid 3N here?

[Winstonm]

If partner happens to hold the Club ace we are most likely gin for 3N; if his club card is the Q, we will need the right distribution in that hand to make 5C. As this is teams but non-vulnerable, I can chicken out and bid a not-very-useful 4C or try to guess if 3N is on.

As I have no 3-level keycard and I'm non-vulnerable, I'm guessing to pass remembering Hamman's admonition - if you need one specific card, I don't have it! (xx, Qx, AKJxx, Jxxx)

[DavidKok]

What a suspicious auction. Partner has the minors and not enough extras to force to game, we have 7 clubs and an opening without extras. Where are the majors? On the auction I expect partner to have at least 8 cards in the minors and around 8-11 points, so that gives the opponents at least 16 cards in the majors, club shortage and almost half the deck in points. Why are they not doing anything?

Cyberyeti, on 2021-June-07, 07:00, said:

All you need is xxx, Kx, xxxxx, Axx in theory to make 5♣ or the ace of clubs and enough to stop them running 5 diamonds for 3N.

With the hand you specified 3NT is also favourite to make, and still has chances with the major suits flipped. Also the opponents rate to make some number of spades, especially if the majors are flipped.

I don't have any sensible way to ask partner if they have the ace of clubs. If they do we seem to have a likely 9 tricks (one in each major and seven clubs). I don't expect a diamond lead on the auction anyway, so
I like my chances in 3NT. Perhaps partner has some values in one or both of the majors and we can conjure up a double stop - Qx or Txx in spades would do it, and in hearts we can hold off twice in an attempt to break the communication.
Conversely, if partner does not have the ace of clubs 5♣ is likely to be better. Give partner something like xxx, Kx, Axxx, QJxx and 3NT is busted on a spade lead but we have 11 tricks in clubs. x, Kxx, Axxxx, QJxx produces the same result, but 3♣ is timid with that hand. There is also the possibility that partner has AK of diamonds, allowing us to pitch a major suit loser in 5♣. Maybe xxx, xx, AKxxx, QJx. But swap the majors and again there are no chances. Also note that if partner's diamonds are not as convenient, maybe KQxx(x) instead, they provide an excellent stopper in 3NT but are worthless in 5♣.

Betting on 3NT seems like a parlay bet. It is likely to make if partner has the ace of clubs (which I would roughly estimate to already be at least a 40% chance on the auction), and, failing that, can make if partner has some supporting values in spades or a good holding like Qxx in hearts. The opponents may also have trouble finding the correct major suit lead (in the case that only one of the two would defeat the contract).

[mikeh]

responder needs something in both majors to rebid 2N here or to have bid 2N earlier (if playing that as invitational, which is quite common although I don’t play it that way)

He could have a magic hand even without the club Ace... 10xx Kx KJxxx QJx as one somewhat contrived example

And, of course, if he has the club Ace, we’re close to cold for 3N.

Thus we have to go on, and the question is 3N or 5C

I don’t think there’s likely a net benefit from bidding a major here, as some kind of probe: I think we just bid 3N as the game most likely to make.

I suspect the majors are breaking evenly and so even when 3N is down, double dummy, when they lead a nine card major fit and we lack the club Ace, LHO may well guess their 4-4 fit instead, and now we need only the diamond ace or a second stopper in the led suit.

All told, I’d rate 3N as well over 50%, with 50% being the break-even measure for non vul games (assuming no double when we’re going down...and neither opp can double this 3N)

While there are hands where 5C makes and 3N fails, there are also hands where the opposite is true. Plus on some hands where both make, we may score some overtricks in 3N, and the chance of an extra imp or two makes 3N the winner for me.

Btw, this hand is a good example of why using a hand evaluation metric, that reduces or sums up the value of the hand as a number is of little use. We don’t need a number to assign to this hand...we need to envisage how many tricks we rate to take in either clubs or notrump, giving partner Hxx or Hxxx in clubs.

[AL78]

I chickened out of bidding 3NT. Wrong decision, partner held:

♠T3
♥K98
♦AJT87
♣A96

3NT is cold, and 6♣ makes as well as the diamonds can be ruffed out to establish a second diamond trick. This was only one im out (opps somehow made 13 tricks in 3♣), but it should have been a game swing in.

[LBengtsson]

AL78, on 2021-June-07, 11:45, said:

I chickened out of bidding 3NT. Wrong decision, partner held:

♠T3
♥K98
♦AJT87
♣A96

3NT is cold, and 6♣ makes as well as the diamonds can be ruffed out to establish a second diamond trick. This was only one im out (opps somehow made 13 tricks in 3♣), but it should have been a game swing in.

3♣ is not optimistic with this hand. 12 points and two-and-a-half controls. your partner have not an easy bid but he can keep bidding low with 2♥ false reverse. you bid 2♣ on second round, not 1♥ so you are not going to have 4♥ here. your partner ♣A is valuable card opposite your suit. 2♥ as a bid allows you to describe hand more. the false reverse is either gf or one round force depending on your agreements.

that said on the actual bidding, I would have bid 3Nt after your partner bid 3♣ as all other commentators have said.

[Winstonm]

LBengtsson, on 2021-June-07, 12:15, said:

3♣ is not optimistic with this hand. 12 points and two-and-a-half controls. your partner have not an easy bid but he can keep bidding low with 2♥ false reverse. you bid 2♣ on second round, not 1♥ so you are not going to have 4♥ here. your partner ♣A is valuable card opposite partners suit. 2♥ as a bid allows partner to describe hand more. the false reverse is either gf or one round force depending on your agreements.

that said on the actual bidding, I would have bid 3Nt after your partner bid 3♣ as all other commentators have said.

Opening styles and bidding styles matter so I can't say this was a bad bid - if you routinely open 10-11 counts, for example - but in my preferred methods 3C would be a severe underbid. Although a difficult hand, my bid over 2C with this hand would be 2NT, fully expecting partner to bid 3C with a minimum.

[Cyberyeti]

LBengtsson, on 2021-June-07, 12:15, said:

3♣ is not optimistic with this hand. 12 points and two-and-a-half controls. your partner have not an easy bid but he can keep bidding low with 2♥ false reverse. you bid 2♣ on second round, not 1♥ so you are not going to have 4♥ here. your partner ♣A is valuable card opposite your suit. 2♥ as a bid allows you to describe hand more. the false reverse is either gf or one round force depending on your agreements.

that said on the actual bidding, I would have bid 3Nt after your partner bid 3♣ as all other commentators have said.

Just play 1♣-1♦-2♣-2♦ as an inv+ relay as we do

[akwoo]

Assuming not-light openers, I don't understand responder's bid of 3C. If you're worried about a fake bid of 2H, you'd still be better off bidding 3N without a spade stop than 3C. Bidding 3C reeks of loss aversion - thinking that being out 6 IMPs for missing game is better than being out 4 IMPs for going down because going down feels like your fault more than underbidding.

I also think opener should bid 3N. But that's a failure to visualize, and it seems to me players can learn to visualize possibilities for partner's hand but find it much harder to get over being irrationally averse to going down.

[mikeh]

AL78, on 2021-June-07, 11:45, said:

I chickened out of bidding 3NT. Wrong decision, partner held:

♠T3
♥K98
♦AJT87
♣A96

3NT is cold, and 6♣ makes as well as the diamonds can be ruffed out to establish a second diamond trick. This was only one im out (opps somehow made 13 tricks in 3♣), but it should have been a game swing in.

3C is a poor call, regardless of bidding style for opener. Again, a bad time for most simplistic hand evaluation methods. If opener can have a shaped 11 count, we might fool ourselves into thinking that we should only invite, with our 12 count.

Think, instead, of tricks. Partner is odds on to have a good club suit, since he has no major and did not rebid 1N. Even Kxxxxx offers decent play for 6 winners, and he will usually have better than that...plus now he has more cards outside clubs.

2N seems very wrong, since we have no suggestion of a major stopper. Opener can’t have 4 hearts, so 2H is entirely safe. An experienced player will know that you could be 5=6 reds but that a gf club hand is more probable

[mw64ahw]

3♣ is a clear underbid for me

Responder has 13 points with distribution (with 2 Aces) versus opener who will have a minimum of 16 revalued. That's worth a game try. I play 1♠ after the 1♣ opening as GF/GI and will end up cue-bidding on the way to game/slam

[johnu]

mw64ahw, on 2021-June-07, 17:44, said:

3♣ is a clear underbid for me

3♣ is an underbid for anybody with a pulse.

[mw64ahw]

johnu, on 2021-June-07, 18:29, said:

3♣ is an underbid for anybody with a pulse.

Must have been a robot then

[AL78]

Thanks for the contributions. Looks like we were both to blame, partner for underbidding on the second round and me underestimating the likelihood of partner having the right cards for 3NT (I knew I just needed the ace but thought the odds were no higher than 50%, if vulnerable I would have gone for 3NT).

[Winstonm]

AL78, on 2021-June-08, 02:54, said:

Thanks for the contributions. Looks like we were both to blame, partner for underbidding on the second round and me underestimating the likelihood of partner having the right cards for 3NT (I knew I just needed the ace but thought the odds were no higher than 50%, if vulnerable I would have gone for 3NT).

Just as a curiosity - as you have shown 6 or more clubs with the 2C rebid, why can't partner have raised to 3C on doubleton support? If so, even the Ax makes this a less likely game contract,

[DavidKok]

Winstonm, on 2021-June-08, 09:29, said:

Just as a curiosity - as you have shown 6 or more clubs with the 2C rebid, why can't partner have raised to 3C on doubleton support? If so, even the Ax makes this a less likely game contract,

I suppose this depends on partnership agreement. As others has pointed out a large number of partnerships have agreements over 1m-1X; 2m to help responder out (I play '3rd suit GF', where the cheapest unbid suit is conventional and GF and all other non-jump bids are invitational NF). Even lacking that, if you play Walsh responses over 1♣ the only shape where responder may want to raise on a doubleton is 3=3=5=2, and it is almost always better to bid a false reverse, 2NT or to repeat the diamonds with that hand.