Posted 2020-January-02, 15:25
Pity the poor OP. He has a difficult decision to make, and seeks advice. What does he get? A series of posts pointing out that the posters would never have this problem, because they would have opened, or (as in the last post) a home-grown method that makes little sense: if you need AKQxxx to make a natural call after passing, having partner open a strong NT and see an overcall, you're going to be waiting an awfully long time to make that call.
As it happens, I would have opened in first seat, but so what? The OP doesn't use a weak 2D, and in that he has a great deal of company. I'd venture to suggest that the weak 2D is played by a minority of good partnerships. That's not, btw, an endorsement of Flannery, but the point is that most decent players in the world could find themselves in this situation.
As for what to do: if I am playing imps I am definitely bidding 3N. If partner has a spade stopper, I'm happy to play game, even though it comes with no guarantees, and I am willing to push to 4D if partner can only muster a 4C call. 4D is not forcing here: it is unlikely, to the point of implausibility, that I offered 3N as a contract with game force values and a stiff or short spade, so partner will let me play 4D.
At mps, the equations are different, especially when vulnerable (when vulnerable, the odds favour relatively low percentage games. At white, they don't but NV undertricks aren't much of a concern. 3N -2 NV is not a big deal at imps, if the alternative was, say, 4D -1. But at mps, 4D-1 is sometimes a LOT better than 3N-2).
This is a soft hand, in terms of honour cards, so I am tempted to swing low, and just lebensohl my way to 3D.
As for transfer lebensohl, I do play that a transfer to a major is invitational or better, but I don't play that way in a minor, since 5m is a long way off. So I'd bid, with my partnership versions of transfer lebensohl (or reubensohl), 3C.
At imps, it would be useful to be able to bid 3C transfer and then 3N. That should clearly suggest doubt, else one would have bid 3N immediately....as a passed hand one cannot be interested in slam. However, I doubt that any but the most experienced, detail-oriented partnerships have discussed this. Since I am not throwing that sequence at a partner without prior discussion, I bid 3N.
At mps, as noted, I settle for 3D anyway.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari