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WTP?
Your next move please!
#22
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- Joined: 2017-December-15
Posted 2018-May-24, 18:11
3N - no second choice, not close... if he showed 15-17 playing weak NT, i would bid the way i show diamonds and raise to 4n
#23
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- Joined: 2016-January-14
Posted 2018-May-25, 02:35
Thank you all for so many interesting discussions and useful comments.
One think I can see is that many of you have the same feeling as I did when I held this South hand. To bid 3NT was so easy. In fact, in the session I was playing, almost all other NS pairs landed on a 3NT, one on 5D, and we on a different contract as I will tell you in the following.
Since North already limited his hand to 12-14 HCPs, for if he had 15 HCPs, he would have opened 1NT. As I already wrote, with 15 HCPs plus 3 aces and a good support for diamonds, I had to invent a bid to force partner to show me more of his hand. So I bid 2S, not caring what could be his understanding. He might take it as a second suit (5H and 4S, eg.), or as a cue-bid, or whatever.
As expected, he took my bid for 5H and 4S, so he jumped to 4H. I continued with the Blackwood 4NT, and the response was 5S meaning 3 aces or 5 key cards, with the Q of trumps. Now I could count 4 Hearts, 4 Diamonds, 2 Spades and 2 Clubs if North held the K of Spades and the J/Q of Clubs. If the remaining Clubs honors split between E and W, then by finessing, we could make 12 tricks.
Therefore, with a bit of gambling, I landed on 6NT!
As the cards lie, we made 6NT for an incontestable top board.
Of course, if North’s holding in Spades and Clubs were reversed (meaning J/Q of Spades and K of Clubs), then there is no hope for 12 tricks. Well, audacity sometimes induces luck!
The full board is as shown.
One think I can see is that many of you have the same feeling as I did when I held this South hand. To bid 3NT was so easy. In fact, in the session I was playing, almost all other NS pairs landed on a 3NT, one on 5D, and we on a different contract as I will tell you in the following.
Since North already limited his hand to 12-14 HCPs, for if he had 15 HCPs, he would have opened 1NT. As I already wrote, with 15 HCPs plus 3 aces and a good support for diamonds, I had to invent a bid to force partner to show me more of his hand. So I bid 2S, not caring what could be his understanding. He might take it as a second suit (5H and 4S, eg.), or as a cue-bid, or whatever.
As expected, he took my bid for 5H and 4S, so he jumped to 4H. I continued with the Blackwood 4NT, and the response was 5S meaning 3 aces or 5 key cards, with the Q of trumps. Now I could count 4 Hearts, 4 Diamonds, 2 Spades and 2 Clubs if North held the K of Spades and the J/Q of Clubs. If the remaining Clubs honors split between E and W, then by finessing, we could make 12 tricks.
Therefore, with a bit of gambling, I landed on 6NT!
As the cards lie, we made 6NT for an incontestable top board.
Of course, if North’s holding in Spades and Clubs were reversed (meaning J/Q of Spades and K of Clubs), then there is no hope for 12 tricks. Well, audacity sometimes induces luck!
The full board is as shown.
#24
- Group: Members
- Posts: 14
- Joined: 2016-January-14
Posted 2018-May-25, 02:40
Thank you all for so many interesting discussions and useful comments.
One think I can see is that many of you have the same feeling as I did when I held this South hand. To bid 3NT was so easy. In fact, in the session I was playing, almost all other NS pairs landed on a 3NT, one on 5D, and we on a different contract as I will tell you in the following.
Since North already limited his hand to 12-14 HCPs, for if he had 15 HCPs, he would have opened 1NT. As I already wrote, with 15 HCPs plus 3 aces and a good support for diamonds, I had to invent a bid to force partner to show me more of his hand. So I bid 2S, not caring what could be his understanding. He might take it as a second suit (5H and 4S, eg.), or as a cue-bid, or whatever.
As expected, he took my bid for 5H and 4S, so he jumped to 4H. I continued with the Blackwood 4NT, and the response was 5S meaning 3 aces or 5 key cards, with the Q of trumps. Now I could count 4 Hearts, 4 Diamonds, 2 Spades and 2 Clubs if North held the K of Spades and the J/Q of Clubs. If the remaining Clubs honors split between E and W, then by finessing, we could make 12 tricks.
Therefore, with a bit of gambling, I landed on 6NT!
As the cards lie, we made 6NT for an incontestable top board.
Of course, if North’s holding in Spades and Clubs were reversed (meaning J/Q of Spades and K of Clubs), then there is no hope for 12 tricks. Well, audacity sometimes induces luck!
The full board is as shown.
One think I can see is that many of you have the same feeling as I did when I held this South hand. To bid 3NT was so easy. In fact, in the session I was playing, almost all other NS pairs landed on a 3NT, one on 5D, and we on a different contract as I will tell you in the following.
Since North already limited his hand to 12-14 HCPs, for if he had 15 HCPs, he would have opened 1NT. As I already wrote, with 15 HCPs plus 3 aces and a good support for diamonds, I had to invent a bid to force partner to show me more of his hand. So I bid 2S, not caring what could be his understanding. He might take it as a second suit (5H and 4S, eg.), or as a cue-bid, or whatever.
As expected, he took my bid for 5H and 4S, so he jumped to 4H. I continued with the Blackwood 4NT, and the response was 5S meaning 3 aces or 5 key cards, with the Q of trumps. Now I could count 4 Hearts, 4 Diamonds, 2 Spades and 2 Clubs if North held the K of Spades and the J/Q of Clubs. If the remaining Clubs honors split between E and W, then by finessing, we could make 12 tricks.
Therefore, with a bit of gambling, I landed on 6NT!
As the cards lie, we made 6NT for an incontestable top board.
Of course, if North’s holding in Spades and Clubs were reversed (meaning J/Q of Spades and K of Clubs), then there is no hope for 12 tricks. Well, audacity sometimes induces luck!
The full board is as shown.
#25
- Group: Advanced Members
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- Joined: 2009-May-18
- Location:Oz
Posted 2018-May-25, 03:06
Well done. You managed to find partner with no wasted values and two critical 10's, all to get to a 14% slam. This time the cards worked for you.
BTW, 6D is a much better contract - at a very rough calculation I make it around 30%.
BTW, 6D is a much better contract - at a very rough calculation I make it around 30%.
#26
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- Posts: 14
- Joined: 2016-January-14
Posted 2018-June-10, 20:00
Sorry for being absent for a long time. Thank you very much for so many comments and observations. The whole board is as shown below. Note that 1NT opening is 15-17 HCPs; the rebid of 1NT promises 12 ~ 14 HCPs; the 2S by South just means to force partner to bid again, or whatever he may misunderstand; the jump to 4♥ promises very good support with 3 cards only (since with 4 cards, the first rebid should not be 1NT); the response of 5♠ to 4NT promises 5 key-cards, including the Q of ♥. Although you have only 15 HCPs, but you can count (somewhat optimistically) 4 tricks in ♥, 2 tricks in ♠, 3 or 4 tricks in ♦, 1 or 2 tricks in ♣. So, even with 50%, you land on 6NT!
#27
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- Location:England
Posted 2018-June-11, 03:24
bluerib, on 2018-June-10, 20:00, said:
Sorry for being absent for a long time. Thank you very much for so many comments and observations. The whole board is as shown below. Note that 1NT opening is 15-17 HCPs; the rebid of 1NT promises 12 ~ 14 HCPs; the 2S by South just means to force partner to bid again, or whatever he may misunderstand; the jump to 4♥ promises very good support with 3 cards only (since with 4 cards, the first rebid should not be 1NT); the response of 5♠ to 4NT promises 5 key-cards, including the Q of ♥. Although you have only 15 HCPs, but you can count (somewhat optimistically) 4 tricks in ♥, 2 tricks in ♠, 3 or 4 tricks in ♦, 1 or 2 tricks in ♣. So, even with 50%, you land on 6NT!
Forget the idea that this is 50%, you need the diamond finesse, hearts 3-3 and one of the club honours onside so it's in the teens%.
You got lucky in a terrible contract, 6♦ is much better but still below odds, and look how bad it is if partner doesn't have 10♣ or 10♦. Without 10♠ 9 tricks could easily be the limit in NT.
#28
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- Location:Kent (Near London)
Posted 2018-June-11, 03:33
bluerib, on 2018-June-10, 20:00, said:
Although you have only 15 HCPs, but you can count (somewhat optimistically) 4 tricks in ♥, 2 tricks in ♠, 3 or 4 tricks in ♦, 1 or 2 tricks in ♣. So, even with 50%, you land on 6NT!
Sorry bluerib, but you are still not getting it.
As South you have an absolutely obvious raise of 1NT to 3NT. Your rather strange sequence (I've no idea what the 2♠ bid was supposed to mean) has propelled you to a slam that is very low odds to succeed.
- Hearts - you seem to think that you can can count 4 tricks in hearts - but over 64% of the time hearts will fail to break 3-3.
- Spades - you seem to think that you can can count 2 tricks in spades - but you need partner to have the ♠K. Why can't have the ♠Q instead (still within the 12-14 range).
- Diamonds - you seem to think that you can can count 3 or 4 tricks in diamonds, which is presumably dependent on the success or failure of the diamond finesse - but you need all four AND you also need the diamonds to break 3-2 or find the ♦10, unless you are lucky enough to find it in partner's hand.
- Clubs - you seem to think that you can can count 1 or 2 tricks in clubs - but you need two tricks, which might be possible since you are lucky enough to find partner with the ♣10 to bolster his jack and give you the chance of a double finesse. Even then it might fail if West has both missing honours.
I don't wish to dampen your enthusiasm but this is really a poor slam (Sfi's estimate of 14% looks about right) even though you found some good cards in partner's hand.
#29
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- Location:UK
Posted 2018-June-11, 04:25
This is actually quite an interesting problem, simply because it's so unproblematic.
Given the hand and bidding sequence in the OP, I'd raise to 3NT without a second thought. Given it as a single dummy problem, with the N hand included, and... I still raise to 3NT. Given it as a double dummy problem, and knowing the slam is makeable... I still don't bid it. At least one of my regular partners thinks I'm too reckless in slam bidding. The other believes I'm a shifty person. I have no reason to make the former mistrust me in slam auctions for the next two months, and I have even less reason to make the latter believe that I've been sneaking looks at my opponents' hands.
Given the hand and bidding sequence in the OP, I'd raise to 3NT without a second thought. Given it as a single dummy problem, with the N hand included, and... I still raise to 3NT. Given it as a double dummy problem, and knowing the slam is makeable... I still don't bid it. At least one of my regular partners thinks I'm too reckless in slam bidding. The other believes I'm a shifty person. I have no reason to make the former mistrust me in slam auctions for the next two months, and I have even less reason to make the latter believe that I've been sneaking looks at my opponents' hands.