[Kaitlyn S]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-July-04, 09:22, said:

So far, we have 18 votes for the ♥3, 2 votes for the ♥2, 4 votes for the ♦K. I'm somewhat shocked that I'm the lone ♥7 leader. Let's see how much luck I have convincing people.

Can I convince anyone? On BridgeWinners

Current results (of the updated poll):
11 people lead a low heart and are unconvinced
7 people lead a high diamond and unconvinced
2 people would have led a low heart and are now leading the ♥7
1 person would have led a high diamond and is now leading the ♥7
Nobody would have led the H7 originally

And unfortunately, Paul has hijacked my lead discussion into a Fourth Suit Forcing bidding discussion

[Winstonm]

MrAce, on 2017-July-04, 12:59, said:

Winstonm! Really?

Does no one bid this way with Jx, Axx, xxxx, AQJx?

I realize it is old-fashioned to open with a prepared bid but still, does everyone on earth these days open 1C?

[manudude03]

Winstonm, on 2017-July-04, 19:16, said:

Does no one bid this way with Jx, Axx, xxxx, AQJx?

I realize it is old-fashioned to open with a prepared bid but still, does everyone on earth these days open 1C?

I'm a 1D opener on that, but I don't rebid 2C.

[Winstonm]

manudude03, on 2017-July-04, 19:18, said:

I'm a 1D opener on that, but I don't rebid 2C.

Thanks. I go w-a-y back, learning from a Goren book. It is difficult for us old dogs to rebid the reasonable 1N when prepared bids were preached to us - so much so that you were supposed to open 1H holding xx, AJ9x, KQxxx, Kx and rebid 2D.

[jogs]

Imp and imp pairs, play to beat the contract. Not concerned whether West makes 9 or 11 tricks.
Make the play which maximizes our chances of beating the contract. If West has the ♥A, West
is probably making. If North has ♥ Axxx, we are beating the contract.

Don't duck the ♠K, win the ♠A and return the ♥J. The ♥6 would embarrassing if West
holds ♥ Q7x. If North holds ♥ AQxx, North better be alert and over take the ♥J.
Please unblock the suit.

[Kaitlyn S]

jogs, on 2017-July-05, 07:24, said:

If North holds ♥ AQxx, North better be alert and over take the ♥J.

If North holds ♥AQxx, his bidding is very strange (either the 2C bid or the 3S bid.)

[Kaitlyn S]

Lead from 75, Q7432, AKJ2, T5 update from Bridgewinners:

The high diamond leaders have taken the lead! There are 20 of them.
19 votes for a low heart.
1 vote for the ♥7.
3 votes for "I would have led a low heart but you convinced me to lead the H7."
2 votes for "I would have led a high diamond but you convinced me to lead the H7."
2 votes for "I'm not sure."
15 abstentions.
6 votes for "other".

I suspect that I will no longer gain any support for the H7 since Kit Woolsey stated that if dummy had ♥J9x and declarer had ♥AT, partner would not play the ♥K and might cede the ninth trick. Apparently he has a far different opinion than I do about the likelihood of declarer getting nine tricks without the benefit of a heart trick. He suggests leading the ♥Q which can hardly cost if declarer has two hearts - when partner either sees the ♥J in dummy or later from declarer's hand, he'll know that it was from queen empty.

However, this does mean that a significant number of people would lead the ♥3 or ♥2 which makes a lot of my earlier posts (which assume partner should lead the ♥7 when you have four cashing diamond tricks) invalid. However, I still believe that playing declarer for ♥Qx is more likely to win than playing declarer for five small diamonds.

[Winstonm]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-July-05, 08:21, said:

Lead from 75, Q7432, AKJ2, T5 update from Bridgewinners:

The high diamond leaders have taken the lead! There are 20 of them.
19 votes for a low heart.
1 vote for the ♥7.
3 votes for "I would have led a low heart but you convinced me to lead the H7."
2 votes for "I would have led a high diamond but you convinced me to lead the H7."
2 votes for "I'm not sure."
15 abstentions.
6 votes for "other".

I suspect that I will no longer gain any support for the H7 since Kit Woolsey stated that if dummy had ♥J9x and declarer had ♥AT, partner would not play the ♥K and might cede the ninth trick. Apparently he has a far different opinion than I do about the likelihood of declarer getting nine tricks without the benefit of a heart trick. He suggests leading the ♥Q which can hardly cost if declarer has two hearts - when partner either sees the ♥J in dummy or later from declarer's hand, he'll know that it was from queen empty.

However, this does mean that a significant number of people would lead the ♥3 or ♥2 which makes a lot of my earlier posts (which assume partner should lead the ♥7 when you have four cashing diamond tricks) invalid. However, I still believe that playing declarer for ♥Qx is more likely to win than playing declarer for five small diamonds.

I always appreciate the work you do on analysis - thanks. At the same time, isn't it possible that the problem is not really about the cards we can see but about the opponents' bidding? OP stated: IMP pairs, opps are good club players.

What does good club player mean? What are the agreements - if any - about rebids after 4th suit forcing? Is a partial stop enough to bid 2NT? Is a full stop required? Or is 2NT simply shape showing? Lots of questions, few answers.

Without arguing that my bidding methods are best, I simply follow what this bidding should mean in my understanding - at least Qxx of hearts but more likely Ax. To me, a strong argument for this position (that a stopper is held) is that opener bid NT twice and responder passed 3N with stiff K.

Unless there was a misunderstanding, I would think opener would raise to 4S rather than bid 2NT/3NT with Jx, Qx in the majors.

[Kaitlyn S]

Winstonm, on 2017-July-05, 10:51, said:

To me, a strong argument for this position (that a stopper is held) is that opener bid NT twice and responder passed 3N with stiff K.

I think you remember the auction wrong. It's 1D-1S-2C-2H-2NT-3C-3S-3NT-P. Responder went back to 3NT.

I'm learning a lot from this problem - frankly a lot of the comments being made on BridgeWinners surprise me but these are players who play a lot more than I do so they probably know what they're talking about (and certainly Kit Woolsey knows what he's talking about.)

[Winstonm]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-July-05, 12:13, said:

I think you remember the auction wrong. It's 1D-1S-2C-2H-2NT-3C-3S-3NT-P. Responder went back to 3NT.

I'm learning a lot from this problem - frankly a lot of the comments being made on BridgeWinners surprise me but these are players who play a lot more than I do so they probably know what they're talking about (and certainly Kit Woolsey knows what he's talking about.)

You're right - I have been under the impression this whole time that opener bid 3NT. Thanks

[Phil]

Late to the party.

I would lead my 'normal' heart and try to Smith or SP my way back to a diamond shift if it looked warranted. Defense is just too murky (read: impossible) if you give bad intel at T1. Of course, if all you care about is the post-mortem or posting in bridge forums, then lead a weird heart.

As far as the original problem is concerned, it looks blindingly obvious to win the 1st spade and send a heart back. If partner had some spectacular diamond holding, I would expect to see some kind of alarm clock play on the spade or club.

[Jinksy]

Partner (me) had xx Axxxx KJxx xx, which I decided wasn't quite an overcall.

At the table, my P ducked the second spade, hoping to see a useful discard from me - then they cashed their 7 tricks in the minors.

[johnu]

Jinksy, on 2017-July-08, 14:04, said:

Partner (me) had xx Axxxx KJxx xx, which I decided wasn't quite an overcall.

At the table, my P ducked the second spade, hoping to see a useful discard from me - then they cashed their 7 tricks in the minors.

Are they still waiting or did they give up

[Winstonm]

Jinksy, on 2017-July-08, 14:04, said:

Partner (me) had xx Axxxx KJxx xx, which I decided wasn't quite an overcall.

At the table, my P ducked the second spade, hoping to see a useful discard from me - then they cashed their 7 tricks in the minors.

I protest the description of the opponents. "Good" club players would end in 4S. Run-of-the-mill club players reach 3NT.

[MrAce]

Winstonm, on 2017-July-08, 16:48, said:

I protest the description of the opponents. "Good" club players would end in 4S. Run-of-the-mill club players reach 3NT.

LOL. The more you try to defend the nonsense the more you dig yourself into it.

It is very normal for ending up in 3 NT even for world class W players. You already saw dummy. Why did you not complain about the bidding of dummy? Because if someone is gonna bid 4 ♠ that is E. Not W who already preferred 3♠ instead of 3 NT over 3♣.

How the **** is W suppose to know whether E had this hand or Qxxxx ATx KQ Kxx or AKxxx Jxx Kx Kxx ?
Why would anyone sane want to play 4♠ with these collections?

I love it when people defend for something that has slim to none percentage and the start complaining about their opponents and their bidding, particularly when their complain is worse than their defensive mistake!

[nige1]

Jinksy, on 2017-July-08, 14:04, said:

Partner (me) had xx Axxxx KJxx xx, which I decided wasn't quite an overcall.
At the table, my P ducked the second spade, hoping to see a useful discard from me - then they cashed their 7 tricks in the minors.

So the board layout was like this.
Mr Ace, Phil, and co return a ♥ to defeat the contract
But I switch to ♦s and let it home with overtricks
Story of my life

---

[Winstonm]

MrAce, on 2017-July-08, 17:18, said:

LOL. The more you try to defend the nonsense the more you dig yourself into it.

It is very normal for ending up in 3 NT even for world class W players. You already saw dummy. Why did you not complain about the bidding of dummy? Because if someone is gonna bid 4 ♠ that is E. Not W who already preferred 3♠ instead of 3 NT over 3♣.

How the **** is W suppose to know whether E had this hand or Qxxxx ATx KQ Kxx or AKxxx Jxx Kx Kxx ?
Why would anyone sane want to play 4♠ with these collections?

I love it when people defend for something that has slim to none percentage and the start complaining about their opponents and their bidding, particularly when their complain is worse than their defensive mistake!

Notice, I didn't place blame for not reaching 4S, but it is fully on the 5-5 black hand. After 3S, there is no good argument for anything other than 4S. Even I would have bid 4S.

[Kaitlyn S]

MrAce, on 2017-July-08, 17:18, said:

How the **** is W suppose to know whether E had this hand or Qxxxx ATx KQ Kxx or AKxxx Jxx Kx Kxx ?
Why would anyone sane want to play 4♠ with these collections?

While I agree with your main argument, wouldn't East just raise 2NT to 3NT with each of these hands; not bothering to bid 3C on the way?

[MrAce]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-July-08, 18:47, said:

While I agree with your main argument, wouldn't East just raise 2NT to 3NT with each of these hands; not bothering to bid 3C on the way?

Yes he would.

But you can change his hand and make it Axxxx Kx K Kxxxx if you want.

[Winstonm]

MrAce, on 2017-July-08, 20:33, said:

Yes he would.

But you can change his hand and make it Axxxx Kx K Kxxxx if you want.

This has always been somewhat of an Achilles' heel for me, in that, especially in club games, when the opponents went out of their way to indicate their weakest suit and afterwards still bid NT, I tended to mentally give them a holding that justified their bidding, which was usually wrong. Over the years, this led to my partner, Bob, introducing me to a lot of different opening lead approaches ( ) including attitude leads, 3&5, etc.

Perhaps Kaitlyn has had the same problem as I remember her introducing leads into the thread.