thepossum, on 2024-September-16, 18:43, said:
More seriously I trust betting sites to be very accurate with odds
2 dollars Trump
1.83 Harris
Why would you ever trust a betting site?
These market are incredibly thin and very vulnerable to manipulation.
The world if full of idiots who are happy to spend $$$ to signal their opinions.
Look at the price of meme stocks like AMC or GameStop
Or, if you prefer a more recent example, the DJT "SPAC"
Keynes said it best
"Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities."