[Cyberyeti]

 pilowsky, on 2022-May-06, 04:53, said:

20 weeks is half way through the pregnancy.
Neural tube defects can now be detected with modern ultrasound in the first trimester.
In any event the question of when life begins is something that religious people feel very strongly about.
At the moment of conception?
At about 20 weeks?
Or when the dog dies and the kids leave home?

If it was me that was making the decision I wouldn't want Dr Strangelove from Texas telling me what to do.

I have a huge problem with anybody saying "my religion says ... so I will make laws that apply to you on that basis whether you believe my religion or not", whether it's Christianity, Islam or any other religion.

IMO abortion should be banned when a baby is capable of being born and surviving independent of the mother. I'm just not sure where that limit is these days.

There are also moral arguments around where a baby shows up in a scan with something not life limiting but disabling and the parents decide for whatever reason they don't want it, should they be forced to have the baby and send it for adoption ?

[kenberg]

 y66, on 2022-May-05, 19:16, said:

From Who Gets Abortions in America? at NYT/Upshot:

That's an interesting article. For example:

Quote

As heated as the issue has become in recent years, the abortion rate, calculated among women ages 15 to 44, has been falling. Americans are having half as many abortions as 30 years ago. Researchers say a variety of factors — including better contraceptive use and less sex among teenagers — is leading to fewer unintended pregnancies.

The decrease in the number of abortions is not a surprise to me. Very very few women take the matter lightly. I am a man, and obviously I don't have deep conversations with many women about abortion, but it seems obvious even to a man that it is not an easy decision. Nor is giving up a child for adoption. The father might or might not be willing or able to help with the raising of the child, the mother might or might not want anything to do with him. And so on. It's a tough, tough problem. If the woman is going to abort, the sooner she does it the better for everyone, in particular the better it is for her. And that seems to be what happens, at least usually.

Abortion did not begin with Roe v Wade. It became legal and safer with Roe v Wade. Legal and safer is good.

[barmar]

Regarding the drop in the rate of abortion, I'll bet it's highly skewed by race and wealth. Wealthy white women are likely to be better educated about sex and have easier access to a variety of contraception methods.

The result of this is that abortion restrictions have a greater impact on poor people, who are least able to support the children they're forced to give birth to. These children will then grow up poor and malnourished. Their prospects will be poor, so they're likely to get involved with gangs, become criminals, etc.

Then the right wing will use them as justification for their racism.

[pilowsky]

A comprehensive study on the demography of abortion was published last year in Lancet Glob Health (2020 Sep;8(9):e1152-e1161. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30315-6. Epub 2020 Jul 22.).
It's free to download.
The authors "developed a model that simultaneously estimated incidence of unintended pregnancy and abortion within a Bayesian framework."
The main findings were that:

Quote

Findings
In 2015–19, there were 121·0 million unintended pregnancies annually (80% uncertainty interval [UI] 112·8–131·5), corresponding to a global rate of 64 unintended pregnancies (UI 60–70) per 1000 women aged 15–49 years. 61% (58–63) of unintended pregnancies ended in abortion (totalling 73·3 million abortions annually [66·7–82·0]), corresponding to a global abortion rate of 39 abortions (36–44) per 1000 women aged 15–49 years. Using World Bank income groups, we found an inverse relationship between unintended pregnancy and income, whereas abortion rates varied non-monotonically across groups. In countries where abortion was restricted, the proportion of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion had increased compared with the proportion for 1990–94, and the unintended pregnancy rates were higher than in countries where abortion was broadly legal.

Unintended pregnancy and abortion by income, region, and the legal status of abortion: estimates from a comprehensive model for 1990-2019
Jonathan Bearak 1, Anna Popinchalk 2, Bela Ganatra 3, Ann-Beth Moller 3, Özge Tunçalp 3, Cynthia Beavin 2, Lorraine Kwok 2, Leontine Alkema 4
PMID: 32710833 Here's a link to the full text.

Quote

In high-income countries where abortion is broadly legal, the annual rate of abortion was 11 abortions (UI 11–12) per 1000 women aged between 15 and 49 years (figure 4). The abortion rate in high-income countries with restrictive laws, and middle-income and low-income countries regardless of legal status, was higher than that of high-income countries where abortion is broadly legal, and ranged from 32 abortions (24–41) to 48 abortions (42–56) per 1000 women aged between 15–49 years.
The proportion of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion was similar for high-income countries where abortion is broadly legal (38% [UI 35–40]), and low-income countries where abortion is legally restricted (39% [34–43]). Among other income and legality groupings, the proportion of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion varied with no clear pattern, from 44% (40–49) in low-income countries where abortion is broadly legal, to 76% (70–80) in middle-income countries where abortion is broadly legal.

[PassedOut]

With the interest in abortion ramped up these days by the leak of Alioto's draft opinion canceling Roe v. Wade, Slate has published a timely article about Ben Franklin's inclusion of accurate instructions for inducing an abortion in his popular and widely distributed book The Instructor: Ben Franklin Put an Abortion Recipe in His Math Textbook.

Quote

In this week’s leaked draft of a Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, Justice Samuel Alito wrote, “The inescapable conclusion is that a right to abortion is not deeply rooted in the Nation’s history and traditions.” Yet abortion was so “deeply rooted” in colonial America that one of our nation’s most influential architects went out of his way to insert it into the most widely and enduringly read and reprinted math textbook of the colonial Americas—and he received so little pushback or outcry for the inclusion that historians have barely noticed it is there. Abortion was simply a part of life, as much as reading, writing, and arithmetic.

I suppose now we can expect Ben Franklin's name to be scrubbed from textbooks in the red states.

[kenberg]

 PassedOut, on 2022-May-09, 20:12, said:

With the interest in abortion ramped up these days by the leak of Alioto's draft opinion canceling Roe v. Wade, Slate has published a timely article about Ben Franklin's inclusion of accurate instructions for inducing an abortion in his popular and widely distributed book The Instructor: Ben Franklin Put an Abortion Recipe in His Math Textbook.


I suppose now we can expect Ben Franklin's name to be scrubbed from textbooks in the red states.

Absolutely terrific.
One of the most important things for children to learn, and for all of us to learn, is that life isn't always what we are told that it is, history isn't always what we are told that it is, and so on. No, I am not saying that this portion of Franklin's writings should be taught in 8th grade. But the general idea of looking squarely at, and appreciating, the unexpected is a gift.

[PassedOut]

Likely one reason that the Supreme Court discourages leaks is the need to remove as much foolishness as possible from documents still in the draft stage. Now that Alito's February draft canceling Roe v. Wade is public, law professors and columnists are having a field day examining Alito's references. A distinguished law professor at the University of Minnesota, Jill Elaine Hasday, wrote this piece: On Roe, Alito cites a judge who treated women as witches and property.

Quote

(Alito) discusses Hale so often because he is desperate to establish that the early American legal system was opposed to abortion. He thinks this characterization of the past gives overturning Roe a veneer of legitimacy.

There are at least two problems with Alito’s reliance on history. First, Alito has misrepresented the actual historical record. As abundant historical research establishes, the common law that governed America in its first decades and beyond did not regulate abortion before “quickening” — the moment when a pregnant woman first detects fetal movement, which can happen as late as 25 weeks into pregnancy.

Alito reports that Hale “described abortion of a quick child who died in the womb as a ‘great crime’ ” while glossing over the key part of that passage. Hale wrote that abortion was a crime “if a woman be quick or great with child.” Note the “if.”

Second, Alito relies on sources such as Hale without acknowledging their entanglement with legalized male supremacy. The men who cited Hale as they constructed the early American legal order refused to give women the right to vote or to otherwise enjoy full citizenship. Relying on that history of injustice as a reason to deny modern women control over their own lives is a terrible argument but apparently the best Alito can do.

Hale was a man who believed women could be witches, assumed women were liars and thought husbands owned their wives’ bodies. It is long past time to leave that misogyny behind.

And Dana Milbank, a Post columnist, looked up another reference: That 13th-century law treatise Alito uses? Here’s what else it says..

Quote

“Where he ought to be executed by the sword he shall not be put to death in any other way, neither by the axe nor the spear, by cudgels nor by the rope,” Bracton informs us. “Similarly, those condemned to be burned alive ought not to be injured by floggings, whippings, or tortures, since many perish while under torture.”

So true! Let’s take a closer look at the 13th-century work from which Alito draws in his cruel and unusual draft — and perhaps glimpse more of the world to which Alito and his fellow conservatives on the court would return us.

In Bracton’s account, “Women differ from men in many respects, for their position is inferior to that of men.” Alito didn’t cite that passage.

(And so on...)

I'm pretty sure that most folks are in tune with abortion normally being a crime "after quickening." It will be interesting to compare the final opinion on this case with Alito's leaked draft.

[johnu]

 PassedOut, on 2022-May-10, 13:45, said:

"after quickening."

"There can only be one", the Highlander.

[Chas_P]

 PassedOut, on 2022-May-10, 13:45, said:

I'm pretty sure that most folks are in tune with abortion normally being a crime "after quickening." It will be interesting to compare the final opinion on this case with Alito's leaked draft.

I agree. If a woman has missed 6.5 menstrual cycles and still doesn't know she's pregnant then her mother, the government schools, or both, have failed miserably. As y66 pointed out, over 93% of all abortions are performed within the first 13 weeks of pregnancy. I have no problem with that. A 16 year-old girl has no business with a baby; it's not fair to the baby; she can't support it; the sperm donor has had his pleasure and left the scene; so have it aborted. But do it early in the pregnancy.

[pilowsky]

 Chas_P, on 2022-May-10, 18:52, said:

I agree. If a woman has missed 6.5 menstrual cycles and still doesn't know she's pregnant then her mother, the government schools, or both, have failed miserably. As y66 pointed out, over 93% of all abortions are performed within the first 13 weeks of pregnancy. I have no problem with that. A 16 year-old girl has no business with a baby; it's not fair to the baby; she can't support it; the sperm donor has had his pleasure and left the scene; so have it aborted. But do it early in the pregnancy.

I started counting all the false statements and inaccuracies but ran out of fingers.
Nice use of the semicolon though; props for that.

[Chas_P]

 pilowsky, on 2022-May-10, 19:11, said:

false statements and inaccuracies

Nothing was stated as fact, just my opinion. And you know what "they" say about opinions.....they're just like assholes; everybody has one. I respect yours; I hope you respect mine. And when you get right down to where the rubber meets the road the only opinion that really matters in the subject under discussion is that of the SCOTUS.

[y66]

Protesters in Philadelphia last week after the leak of a Supreme Court draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade.Credit...Rachel Wisniewski for The New York Times

[Winstonm]

I really don't get the Democrats frustrations right not - no one thought that there was much of a chance to flip the Senate in 2020 but it happened, not so much to get things done but to avoid the plague that was the Trump administration, the enormous corruption that threatened to level a civilization built on the rule of law.

Joe Biden is not Trump, and the Republicans cannot set the agenda in the Senate. Be happy of that and then elect more Democrats if you want more.

[awm]

 Winstonm, on 2022-May-12, 09:00, said:

I really don't get the Democrats frustrations right not - no one thought that there was much of a chance to flip the Senate in 2020 but it happened, not so much to get things done but to avoid the plague that was the Trump administration, the enormous corruption that threatened to level a civilization built on the rule of law.

Joe Biden is not Trump, and the Republicans cannot set the agenda in the Senate. Be happy of that and then elect more Democrats if you want more.

A lot of us expected a bigger backlash against Trump in the 2020 election. The 2018 midterms had gone extremely well for Democrats and that was before the Trump administration's catastrophic response to the Covid pandemic. The pre-election polls also supported a much bigger Democratic win, with a significant Senate majority. It's true that after the Georgia races went to a run-off (and we lost a number of expected Senate wins), it was a surprise to get the 50-50 Senate split.

While it's true that not "everything is wonderful", we'd also hope that the attempted overthrow of the US government combined with continued lies about the 2020 election, as well as support for Putin preceding the invasion of Ukraine might have soured people on Trump and his disciples. But polling shows they have a strong chance of taking over both houses of Congress in 2022, and Trump's hold on the Republican party and its nominating process seems as strong as ever.

[Winstonm]

 awm, on 2022-May-12, 12:17, said:

A lot of us expected a bigger backlash against Trump in the 2020 election. The 2018 midterms had gone extremely well for Democrats and that was before the Trump administration's catastrophic response to the Covid pandemic. The pre-election polls also supported a much bigger Democratic win, with a significant Senate majority. It's true that after the Georgia races went to a run-off (and we lost a number of expected Senate wins), it was a surprise to get the 50-50 Senate split.

While it's true that not "everything is wonderful", we'd also hope that the attempted overthrow of the US government combined with continued lies about the 2020 election, as well as support for Putin preceding the invasion of Ukraine might have soured people on Trump and his disciples. But polling shows they have a strong chance of taking over both houses of Congress in 2022, and Trump's hold on the Republican party and its nominating process seems as strong as ever.

The problem with polling is that it is not restricted to active voters, those people who actually take the time and trouble to go out and stand in line - actually inconvenience themselves for a day as payback for living here.

[Winstonm]

 Winstonm, on 2022-May-12, 14:02, said:

The problem with polling is that it is not restricted to active voters, those people who actually take the time and trouble to go out and stand in line - actually inconvenience themselves for a day as payback for living here.

The so-called attempt to overthrow the government started decades before Trump. You can trace it back to the Red Scare and the John Birch Society, and the goals have finally been met in part - preparing the US as a pretend Republic but de facto totalitarian theocracy where only one side can win enough elections to matter, and the SCOTUS is now in place as their backstop. It is an old sad song about death of democracies. Welcome to the Roman Empire.

[Chas_P]

 Winstonm, on 2022-May-12, 09:00, said:

The Republicans cannot set the agenda in the Senate. Be happy of that and then elect more Democrats if you want more.

I readily agree that the Republicans are not perfect. But the Democrats, in my opinion, are insane.

[kenberg]

 Chas_P, on 2022-May-13, 19:34, said:

I readily agree that the Republicans are not perfect. But the Democrats, in my opinion, are insane.

A thought from a guy who voted (both in 2014 and 2018) for the current R governor of Maryland: It's pretty hard to think of anything more insane, and more harmful, than the continued insistence that the 2020 election was stolen by Biden, that Trump was the winner. Student debt is a problem that I am not sure how to solve, I do not favor just forgiving it, there are a great many people in Central America who would like to come to the USA and that creates difficult problems at the border and so on. I do not necessarily agree with D solutions, I think many of these problems are tough else we would have solved them long ago. But Biden won the 2020 election, Trump lost the 2020 election, the claim that it is the other way around has become one of those faith things like having to believe that Jesus turned water into wine else you are not really a Christian. George Washington did not confess to his father that he cut down a cherry tree and Donald Trump did not win the 2020 election. I hope the Republican Party can someday acknowledge that.

Acknowledging Trump's role in the Jan 6 insurrection would also be a really good thing for the Republican Party, as a group rather than a few isolated individuals, who are thus declared to be RINOs, to do.

[Chas_P]

 kenberg, on 2022-May-14, 07:08, said:

It's pretty hard to think of anything more insane, and more harmful, than the continued insistence that the 2020 election was stolen by Biden, that Trump was the winner.

I'm not insisting that at all. I acknowledge the fact that Biden won and I wish him well. But so far he and his manipulators have been a big disappointment as I see it. If you are happy with the direction of our country I'm happy for you. It just proves, once again, that we don't all see things the same way.

[y66]

Heather Cox Richardson said:

[Friday] was White House press secretary Jen Psaki’s last day at the White House after 15 months. She set out to restore truth, transparency, and accountability of the administration to the press, and to that end she has held 224 press briefings—together, all of former president Trump’s press secretaries combined held only 205 in his four years in office. Psaki gave her first press conference on January 20, 2021, the day of President Joe Biden’s inauguration, telling the press, “I have deep respect for the role of a free and independent press in our democracy and for the role all of you play,” before answering questions.

Psaki’s tenure has been notable for her ability to parry loaded questions, turning them into opportunities to provide facts and information. Her quick answers to leading questions have been labeled “Psaki bombs,” and they have enabled her to redirect the conversation without engaging in the hostility that former press secretaries sometimes fell into. Her conduct and evident respect for reporters has been an important corrective to the disrespect with which the press has often been treated by lawmakers in the recent past.

When she finished today’s briefing, she thanked members of the press. “You have challenged me, you have pushed me, you have debated me, and at times we have disagreed. That is democracy in action. That is it working.” She continued: “Thank you for what you do. Thank you for making me better. And most importantly, thank you for the work every day you do to make this country stronger.”