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What's your plan?
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JEC Feb15 Board 7
#1
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Posted 2015-February-14, 19:41
What's your plan?
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
-- Bertrand Russell
-- Bertrand Russell
#2
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Posted 2015-February-14, 20:23
If I can transfer and know right away whether partner has a fit for spades or not, that'll be great. With a fit I'll try to get to slam; without a fit I'll stop at 3NT. If I have not talked with partner about how to show deny a fit I'll just transfer and invite to slam via 4NT which hopefully works as a quantitative bid.
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win
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#3
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Posted 2015-February-14, 20:27
It's quite tempting to bid 2N-3H-3S-3N, then make a slam try if partner corrects to 4♠, isn't it?
Maybe 4N over 4♠ should be non-forcing with a balanced slam try? It obviously doesn't make sense that we'd suddenly bid RKCB after signing off in 3N.
Maybe 4N over 4♠ should be non-forcing with a balanced slam try? It obviously doesn't make sense that we'd suddenly bid RKCB after signing off in 3N.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#4
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Posted 2015-February-14, 22:12
3h transfer to 3s followed by 3n and settle for 4s if p merely converts.
Imagine AQx(x) Kxx(x) Axx(x) AKx(x) a beautiful 20 yet 11 tricks is the
practical limit. That means we should only really look for slam when
opener can show some sort of special hand. A special hand will almost
surely have a side 5 card suit and lots of controls. Another alternative
is opener has a doubleton (dia or club).
The problem is which bid is more practical (showing a long suit or a ruffing
value) (and a max but not super accept)--Imho it would be more beneficial to be
able to show a long suit since that would still leave open the possibility of
a grand. Imagine AQx Kxx AQJxx Ax once opener bids 4d over 3n it really is not tough
to imagine 7s.
If opener super accepts over 3h (hopefully by showing a long suit) we should try to
see if 7s is the best place to settle and bid slam for sure.
Imagine AQx(x) Kxx(x) Axx(x) AKx(x) a beautiful 20 yet 11 tricks is the
practical limit. That means we should only really look for slam when
opener can show some sort of special hand. A special hand will almost
surely have a side 5 card suit and lots of controls. Another alternative
is opener has a doubleton (dia or club).
The problem is which bid is more practical (showing a long suit or a ruffing
value) (and a max but not super accept)--Imho it would be more beneficial to be
able to show a long suit since that would still leave open the possibility of
a grand. Imagine AQx Kxx AQJxx Ax once opener bids 4d over 3n it really is not tough
to imagine 7s.
If opener super accepts over 3h (hopefully by showing a long suit) we should try to
see if 7s is the best place to settle and bid slam for sure.
#5
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Posted 2015-February-15, 02:22
I think this depends if we are swinging or not and also how often partner will super accept and also partners range (and upgrade style) for 2nt. I think transfer and bid 3nt is normal. Transfer and bid 4nt over 3♠ doesn't seem horrid if swinging, especially if partner is conservative about upgrading 19 counts and also about super accepting.
#6
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Posted 2015-February-15, 06:45
cherdano, on 2015-February-14, 20:27, said:
It's quite tempting to bid 2N-3H-3S-3N
No, underbidding is rarely tempting to me.
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
-- Bertrand Russell
-- Bertrand Russell
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Posted 2015-February-15, 09:00
mgoetze, on 2015-February-15, 06:45, said:
No, underbidding is rarely tempting to me.
You have two balanced hands with <= 32 hcp, and no fit for your main suit. What makes you think slam is likely?
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#8
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Posted 2015-February-15, 09:29
cherdano, on 2015-February-15, 09:00, said:
You have two balanced hands with <= 32 hcp, and no fit for your main suit. What makes you think slam is likely?
This.
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
-- Bertrand Russell
-- Bertrand Russell
#9
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Posted 2015-February-15, 10:59
cherdano, on 2015-February-14, 20:27, said:
It's quite tempting to bid 2N-3H-3S-3N, then make a slam try if partner corrects to 4♠, isn't it?
#10
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Posted 2015-February-15, 16:57
2NT-3♥
3♠-4NT shows exactly this hand, this strength and a balanced hand usually.
I really do not understand 3 NT and totally bypassing pd and his judgement with AKK prime values. Making a bid that they would do with 5-6 hcp. It is not even close imho.
Michael, I do not understand your argument, first you sound like you disagree with Arend and then you totally agree with his comment.
3♠-4NT shows exactly this hand, this strength and a balanced hand usually.
I really do not understand 3 NT and totally bypassing pd and his judgement with AKK prime values. Making a bid that they would do with 5-6 hcp. It is not even close imho.
Michael, I do not understand your argument, first you sound like you disagree with Arend and then you totally agree with his comment.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
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Posted 2015-February-15, 17:47
MrAce, on 2015-February-15, 16:57, said:
Michael, I do not understand your argument, first you sound like you disagree with Arend and then you totally agree with his comment.
I realize that in colloquial English "This" means "I agree", but that is not the original meaning of the term, and I think it still isn't when it's a hyperlink.
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
-- Bertrand Russell
-- Bertrand Russell
#12
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Posted 2015-February-16, 03:00
mgoetze, on 2015-February-15, 17:47, said:
I realize that in colloquial English "This" means "I agree", but that is not the original meaning of the term, and I think it still isn't when it's a hyperlink.
LOL sorry I now see it is a link. My bad.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
#13
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Posted 2015-February-16, 19:05
mgoetze, on 2015-February-15, 09:29, said:
So I got curious about this one, and ran a simulation. I gave partner 21 hcp, 2 spades, and no other doubleton.
Double dummy, 6NT was making about 80% of the time. Then I generated 20 hands until I got a sample where exactly 16 of them were making 6NT, and looked through each of them whether I believed that declarer would actually make them; I assumed RHO trying to find the safest possible lead. I thought that declarer would clearly make 10 times, probably make 2 times, unclear 2 times, and go down 6 times. (I assumed declare to go down when he had to drop Qx doubleton or similar; unclear means I thought delcarer pretty much had a 50-50 guess, etc.)
Then I looked through the hands again, and it seemed to me seven of the hands were upgrades to 2C (strong 5-card suit and no negative feature like AQ doubleton). Five of those seven were "makes", one a "probable make", one "go down". So that leaves 5 clear makes, one probable make, two unclear, and 5 hands to go down.
You may disagree with my analysis on individual hands (I didn't think hard about them). But I do think the difference between double dummy and single dummy is big - especially so in 6NT with two balanced hands, and with a KJxxx suit opposite a doubleton.
All 20 hands in the spoiler below. ("North makes..." is the double dummy result; the ----- line contains my evaluation.
Spoiler
And the code for Thomas Andrews' "deal":
Spoiler
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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Posted 2015-February-16, 19:24
MrAce, on 2015-February-15, 16:57, said:
2NT-3♥
3♠-4NT shows exactly this hand, this strength and a balanced hand usually.
3♠-4NT shows exactly this hand, this strength and a balanced hand usually.
#15
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Posted 2015-February-16, 20:41
So it seems only very few people would endorse the action at table 1:
And certainly noone would endorse what I did:
In hindsight, I should perhaps have bid it differently - maybe this would have been a good time to use Gerber for the first time in my life.
My general experience with JEC matches is that negative IMPs are easy to come by, positive IMPs are pretty hard. So yes, I did want to swing a bit and give our best player a chance to get some IMPs in the left column, which he successfully converted.
And certainly noone would endorse what I did:
In hindsight, I should perhaps have bid it differently - maybe this would have been a good time to use Gerber for the first time in my life.
My general experience with JEC matches is that negative IMPs are easy to come by, positive IMPs are pretty hard. So yes, I did want to swing a bit and give our best player a chance to get some IMPs in the left column, which he successfully converted.
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
-- Bertrand Russell
-- Bertrand Russell
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Posted 2015-February-17, 15:58
mgoetze, on 2015-February-15, 09:29, said:
That is double dummy. At slam level DD makes about 0.2 tricks more than top level players. Also those are averages where hands with fit produce on average more tricks than once without fit. That why knowing about fit is the key when you can start bidding 31 hcp slams with balanced hands.
Statistics are way too hard to read as simple guide for profitable bidding level.
But I would have probably made quantitative slam try like Jay did against us.
#17
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Posted 2015-February-17, 16:32
mgoetze, on 2015-February-16, 20:41, said:
So it seems only very few people would endorse the action at table 1:
Actually despite what I wrote above, I do think bidding 3H-3S-4N is the best option - but it's close to just bidding 3N. And I always find it tempting when going against the book (making a slam try over 4S after seemingly signing off in 3N) might be the right thing to do.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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Posted 2015-February-17, 18:02
Im on record as already saying that I would accept the slam invite. My ♠AT are fantastic and I have a side ♦AJT98.
Uncharacteristically I guessed the diamond. Characteristically for the wrong reason.
Uncharacteristically I guessed the diamond. Characteristically for the wrong reason.
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Posted 2015-February-18, 03:49
Phil, on 2015-February-17, 18:02, said:
Im on record as already saying that I would accept the slam invite. My ♠AT are fantastic and I have a side ♦AJT98.
Uncharacteristically I guessed the diamond. Characteristically for the wrong reason.
Uncharacteristically I guessed the diamond. Characteristically for the wrong reason.
Actually when Michael posted his 6 NT bid, I wasreplying on my Iphone saying that Phil would accept it and I was not even using "I think" I was confident that you would. Then again a phone call messed it and I forgot to post.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
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