[mgoetze]

---

Your lead?

[Hanoi5]

♠K

[gszes]

I will try and get my name in the funny papers with the heart Q. I want to try
and keep communications open in case p has a minor entry and 3 hearts. If opener
has KJx or Kxx and the board Jx the opening lead of the Q accomplishes this aim.

[Mbodell]

 gszes, on 2015-February-14, 22:41, said:

I will try and get my name in the funny papers with the heart Q.

I don't know why this should go in the funny papers, the heart Q is fairly normal from this suit holding, no? If I'm leading a heart, I'm leading the Q. I'm a little worried on this auction that this might be trick 9, as declarer might well have spade A, 6 solid, heart K, top club. I can see arguments for any suit though. Maybe spade K and then try to play clubs to get partner in to lead to us? Some small tempo risk if spades are 3=3=4=3 around the table that E can set up the 4th round before partner gets in in clubs and 9 tricks with 6 diamonds, 2 spades, 1 club - but seems reasonable. Second choice club.

[cherdano]

Why is the ♥Q the normal lead when we expect RHO to have the ♥K?

In any case, once you assume RHO has ♥K, I think this problem is fairly clear. Imagine partner winning a trick in the minors. What would you wish to have lead? Hint: we need 5 tricks. 2 spades, partner's trick, ♥AQ.

[Mbodell]

 cherdano, on 2015-February-15, 03:06, said:

Why is the ♥Q the normal lead when we expect RHO to have the ♥K?

In any case, once you assume RHO has ♥K, I think this problem is fairly clear. Imagine partner winning a trick in the minors. What would you wish to have lead? Hint: we need 5 tricks. 2 spades, partner's trick, ♥AQ.

If you are leading a heart, the Q is normal. Even if it is near certain that RHO has the K, if you lead low you risk dummy winning stiff J or Jx. And if partner has the J or declarer has the J, then if partner gets in they can still lead hearts through so it should not have cost a second trick to lead the Q.

As I said, I think I order the suits ♠ > ♣ > ♦ > ♥. But I can see arguments for any, and if I do lead a heart it is the Q.

[cherdano]

 Mbodell, on 2015-February-15, 03:54, said:

If you are leading a heart, the Q is normal. Even if it is near certain that RHO has the K, if you lead low you risk dummy winning stiff J or Jx. And if partner has the J or declarer has the J, then if partner gets in they can still lead hearts through so it should not have cost a second trick to lead the Q.

I disagree.
- Dummy has Jxx, declarer Kxx.
- Declarer has KJx and can duck our queen, partner has a doubleton.
- Even when dummy has Jx as you hope for, what exact layout are you hoping for when you lead the Q? If declarer has K9xx, it doesn't matter. If declarer has Kxx it doesn't matter.

So far the only layouts I could come up with where Q is right is
- Jx in dummy, 9x in partner's hand.
- J in dummy, 9xx in partner's hand.
Both of these seem unlikely given the auction.

The Q would be right if we expect ♥K in dummy.

[Phil]

The Queen is the book lead when we anticipate the K in dummy and the jack with declarer.

This is not one of this times.

[MrAce]

♠K

[gszes]

 cherdano, on 2015-February-15, 04:07, said:

I disagree.
- Dummy has Jxx, declarer Kxx.
- Declarer has KJx and can duck our queen, partner has a doubleton.
- Even when dummy has Jx as you hope for, what exact layout are you hoping for when you lead the Q? If declarer has K9xx, it doesn't matter. If declarer has Kxx it doesn't matter.

So far the only layouts I could come up with where Q is right is
- Jx in dummy, 9x in partner's hand.
- J in dummy, 9xx in partner's hand.
Both of these seem unlikely given the auction.

The Q would be right if we expect ♥K in dummy.

If the Jx or stiff J wins in dummy (after a low heart lead) declarer (with a 2nd spade stop) can freely
finesse into YOUR hand to set up minor winners. This is not a good thing for our side since we cannot win
any minor suit plays. The lead of the Q keeps communications open AND makes certain declarer has no "safe"
options in the play (ie it would be just as dangerous to lose a minor trick to you as it would be to lose one
to partner). If we get declarer to avoid their number 1 line in favor of something else we may have already
won the board. Leading a low heart means the only way we get heart tricks is if p has a sure entry. Think of
the heart Q as just a little bit of extra oomph vs a low heart lead.

[cherdano]

That's all nice and good. I also admit that ♥Q is not quite as horrible as I first thought - if declarer ducks from KJx or similar, we can switch to a spade.
But I still can't see all these tiny advantages (dummy Jx and declarer having a 2-way finesse) making up against the disaster of Jxx in dummy and Kxx in declarer's hand. (Dummy has exactly 4 spades, and probably not too many diamonds. Partner didn't raise. I think dummy is at least as likely to have 3 hearts as he is to have 2 hearts.)

As Phil said, those who lead ♥Q remember the theme of a book hand, but not the assumptions in the book.

[mgoetze]

Funny thing, I managed to find the killing lead, then didn't realize I need to continue the suit despite partner's signal.

---

I found this one interesting in that even looking at it double dummy it took me a while to realize why spade-spade beats the contract. I think I have a bit of a blind spot here - I tend to only think about entries to one hand, not to both hands.

[kuhchung]

Thanks for all the threads mgoetze!