[gwnn]

Meanwhile Jay now says they buried the body around midnight.
https://firstlook.or...rial-case-pt-1/
He also dropped the absurd parking lot "look this is the body!" part which never made any sense. I have no idea what to think. The police clearly influenced him but I am hardly convinced by your/their responses.
1-2 seems moot if he now retracts the 7PM butial but
3 the point is that he did ask her for a ride. Why would he ask for a ride anyway (other than bad luck again) and how would Jay know this? Is this another thing that the police told him? Did the police really just tell him everything just to exonerate the drug dealer kid and put the magnet kid behind bars (with a more plausible motive I know but still). Surely at least some of the stuff he told the police were independent or they had gone after him instead. Or does it go something like he knocks on the police door "I am willing to say whatever you want about Adnan as long as you give me assurances that you don't prosecute me for drug offences." This is something I don't get about the whole coached by the police narrative. It would mean that the police are incredibly corrupt or incredibly naive. I know they are corrupt in some cases but this would be more than I am willing to swallow. Why can't it just be that they feel that Jay is confused about the thing and they are trying to remind him of stuff that he'd already said in the preparation interview? Now, I don't think that is really what is going on, but it still seems to be better than the police wilfully agreeing to help a drug dealer and an accessory to murder just to convict an honour student. Something in between the two is likely to be the case but I don't know where.
4. I don't get this. He premeditatedly killed Hae to frame Adnan, hoping for Adnan not to have a good alibi? Or he just killed Hae by himself or with the serial killer dude (putting her in a shallow grave), and when he heard that they found the body and Adnan has no alibi decided to try and frame him?

The I WILL KILL simply supports the idea that Adnan at least entertained the idea and Jay somehow knew this (although Jay himself is not sure how he knew this! Argh!).

[cherdano]

The point about 4. is this: Say Jay helped someone to commit the murder, but his much too afraid to testify against someone. But he did commit accessory to murder, and the only chance to get away with it is to give the police a witness testimony that helps them convict someone else. Who would he testify against? As any mafia player knows, he would testify against whoever is already considered guilty by the police.
So if

• the police considered Adnan guilty because of his lack of alibi, and
  
• Jay learned that the police was suspicious of Adnan,

then "Jay picked EXACTLY THE SAME PERSON that has no alibi" is not a coincidence; indeed, in that scenario he would always testify against the person with no alibi.

[cherdano]

gwnn, on 2015-January-11, 13:13, said:

This is something I don't get about the whole coached by the police narrative. It would mean that the police are incredibly corrupt or incredibly naive. I know they are corrupt in some cases but this would be more than I am willing to swallow. Why can't it just be that they feel that Jay is confused about the thing and they are trying to remind him of stuff that he'd already said in the preparation interview?

No, the assumption would be that the police got convinced that Adnan is guilty, and then fell into confirmation bias.
[Jay says something fitting our theory => great, we were right to be suspicious of Adnan. Jay says something contrary to the theory => well we know he lies now and then, let's ask him again.]
If you think this is far-fetched, you should really listen to TAL 507.

To add to that theory: the two detectives apparently had an unusually high closing rate. Also one of the detectives [Ritz] was named in a lawsuit against the Baltimore police by someone wrongfully convicted for murder; google Ezra Mable if you want to read more.
This doesn't mean that they were actively unethical; but maybe they were prone to cutting corners. There were certainly various opportunities they missed where they could have subjected their own theory "Adnan is guilty" to more scrutiny. [I mean, who in their right mind could believe that a phone call "She is dead, come get me at Best Buy" would take 5 seconds. A phone call to someone who did not expect that a murder would happen, and who had not agreed to help with it.]

[Mbodell]

cherdano, on 2015-January-11, 14:39, said:

The point about 4. is this: Say Jay helped someone to commit the murder, but his much too afraid to testify against someone. But he did commit accessory to murder, and the only chance to get away with it is to give the police a witness testimony that helps them convict someone else. Who would he testify against? As any mafia player knows, he would testify against whoever is already considered guilty by the police.
So if

• the police considered Adnan guilty because of his lack of alibi, and
  
• Jay learned that the police was suspicious of Adnan,

then "Jay picked EXACTLY THE SAME PERSON that has no alibi" is not a coincidence; indeed, in that scenario he would always testify against the person with no alibi.

To say nothing of the fact that you provide this same person with drugs to smoke during some of this time period. If you control the drugs, you may be able to influence how much this person remembers about this time. Depending on how early you want to set this person up for the fall.

[cherdano]

Btw, here is a bit of amusing indication that Jay's testimony was, in part, based on evidence shown to him:
http://www.reddit.co...oast_stockings/

[gwnn]

cherdano, on 2015-January-11, 14:54, said:

No, the assumption would be that the police got convinced that Adnan is guilty, and then fell into confirmation bias.
[Jay says something fitting our theory => great, we were right to be suspicious of Adnan. Jay says something contrary to the theory => well we know he lies now and then, let's ask him again.]
If you think this is far-fetched, you should really listen to TAL 507.

To add to that theory: the two detectives apparently had an unusually high closing rate. Also one of the detectives [Ritz] was named in a lawsuit against the Baltimore police by someone wrongfully convicted for murder; google Ezra Mable if you want to read more.
This doesn't mean that they were actively unethical; but maybe they were prone to cutting corners. There were certainly various opportunities they missed where they could have subjected their own theory "Adnan is guilty" to more scrutiny. [I mean, who in their right mind could believe that a phone call "She is dead, come get me at Best Buy" would take 5 seconds. A phone call to someone who did not expect that a murder would happen, and who had not agreed to help with it.]

So the assumption is that the police got convinced that he's guilty just because he has no alibi and choose to believe the drug dealer who knows where the car is? You're ignoring my simple point: Jay did change a lot of the details either prompted by the police or not, but he surely did give the police *something* of independent value, in whatever scattershot manner, or they would have gone after him. Do you disagree with this? I even see people suggesting that the police knew all along where the car was and told that to Jay as well. All this, just to close the case as fast as possible?

I don't see how 5 seconds is too short for a come and get me call. You can just say "Best buy, now." (it is not known whether or not Jay did not expect the murder to happen). Now, the 2:36 PM call is likely not the come get me call for other reasons, but I think you show you are biased in your incredulity here.

[gwnn]

cherdano, on 2015-January-11, 14:39, said:

The point about 4. is this: Say Jay helped someone to commit the murder, but his much too afraid to testify against someone. But he did commit accessory to murder, and the only chance to get away with it is to give the police a witness testimony that helps them convict someone else. Who would he testify against? As any mafia player knows, he would testify against whoever is already considered guilty by the police.
So if

• the police considered Adnan guilty because of his lack of alibi, and
  
• Jay learned that the police was suspicious of Adnan,

then "Jay picked EXACTLY THE SAME PERSON that has no alibi" is not a coincidence; indeed, in that scenario he would always testify against the person with no alibi.

It's not as simple as that. For one, Jay apparently already told Jenn on the 13th (Jenn said so). If you want to say that Jay made up the whole thing about Adnan, you will have to say that either he made it up on the 13th or thereabouts, or that he made it up around the 27th together with Jenn so the conspiracy thickens. It is also simply the case that a third party is very hard to reconcile with Hae Min Lee being attacked/abducted already between 2:15 and 3:15 which is a narrow window. The only person we know who tried to leave with her in her car is Adnan. There are people who said she left alone but that leaving alone is simply very unlikely because she was attacked between 2:15 and 3:15. I now read that there's an indication that she stopped at a gas station on the way (based on her credit card records) but that seems a bit of a stretch, that the conspirators would know which gas station she'd stop at and ambush her there.

I am plagiarizing an argument I saw in a subreddit, I will try to source it later.

[Winstonm]

cherdano, on 2015-January-09, 15:17, said:

No worries, it's only the most popular podcast of all time.

What's a podcast?

[cherdano]

Sorry I will cherry-pick small things to reply to, just to points I find interesting.

gwnn, on 2015-January-12, 10:45, said:

I don't see how 5 seconds is too short for a come and get me call. You can just say "Best buy, now." (it is not known whether or not Jay did not expect the murder to happen).

This requires Adnan and Jay to conspire to cooperate with this murder. I cannot believe that the police thought (a) that the two of them conspired to murder Hae and (b) only ever charged Jay with accessory after the fact.

[cherdano]

gwnn, on 2015-January-12, 10:45, said:

So the assumption is that the police got convinced that he's guilty just because he has no alibi and choose to believe the drug dealer who knows where the car is? You're ignoring my simple point: Jay did change a lot of the details either prompted by the police or not, but he surely did give the police *something* of independent value, in whatever scattershot manner, or they would have gone after him. Do you disagree with this? I even see people suggesting that the police knew all along where the car was and told that to Jay as well. All this, just to close the case as fast as possible?

I agree that Jay gave the police reasons to believe him. I think he mentioned details about how she was buried, and he ("eventually", according to one court document) lead them to the car. I also agree that it is unlikely that two experienced police detectives would fall into such extreme confirmation bias, and wrongly pursue the ex-boyfriend, rather than the drug dealer who admits to helping bury the body.

But you also have to admit that against the unlikelihood of the opposite happening: if Jay was basically telling the truth, how likely would it be that
- he would lie about so many things - both small things, and big things. His timeline initially made no sense at all; even his timeline to which he testified at trial is completely contradicted by cellphone records,
- that the prosecution would never be able to come up with a story that would even come close to matching the cellphone records (even after modifying Jay's timeline). See http://viewfromll2.c...e-simple-chart/

I don't even know what the most likely timeline is, and whether it's plausible.

[cherdano]

As for Jenn's testimony:

• She clearly lied about some things. (According to her, both Jay and Jenn were at Jenn's house until 3.40pm - one of the few things that Jay1, Jay2, Jay3, ... and Jenn are all consistent about - and Jay had the cellphone until then. This seems very unlikely, given that the cellphone was used to call Jenn's landline before that, and not from a tower covering Jenn's house.)
  
• She was very close to Jay. ("Girlfriend?" "Not really. But very close.")
  
• She certainly had opportunity to coordinate her testimony with Jay.

[barmar]

Winstonm, on 2015-January-12, 12:50, said:

What's a podcast?

Are you asking seriously, or just pretending to be a transplant from the 20th century?

[gwnn]

cherdano, on 2015-January-12, 13:38, said:

This requires Adnan and Jay to conspire to cooperate with this murder. I cannot believe that the police thought (a) that the two of them conspired to murder Hae and (b) only ever charged Jay with accessory after the fact.

That's a good point, and one I didn't think about until now. Probably what happened was that Jay knew that he did a lot more than accessory after the fact but was trying to make the policemen as confused as possible while still giving them enough info to look like he is on their side. The 2:36 call is inconsistent with both Hae talking to Summer and with the short duration. It's also inconsistent with the time Jay said (3:40??), etc.

cherdano, on 2015-January-12, 14:53, said:

I agree that Jay gave the police reasons to believe him. I think he mentioned details about how she was buried, and he ("eventually", according to one court document) lead them to the car. I also agree that it is unlikely that two experienced police detectives would fall into such extreme confirmation bias, and wrongly pursue the ex-boyfriend, rather than the drug dealer who admits to helping bury the body.

Great, it seems like we agree on most things then. Even:

Quote

But you also have to admit that against the unlikelihood of the opposite happening: if Jay was basically telling the truth, how likely would it be that

Quote

- he would lie about so many things - both small things, and big things. His timeline initially made no sense at all; even his timeline to which he testified at trial is completely contradicted by cellphone records,

I hope by completely contradicted you mean "the sequence in his timeline in the trial is completely sure to be less than 100% true" and not "it is completely sure to be 0% true". If the former, I am right there with you. If you mean the second one, I disagree since you still have Leaking Park and the Nisha call (not the location but Adnan being with him). I am not buying the butt dial thing.

Quote

- that the prosecution would never be able to come up with a story that would even come close to matching the cellphone records (even after modifying Jay's timeline). See http://viewfromll2.c...e-simple-chart/

I don't even know what the most likely timeline is, and whether it's plausible.

Me neither... Quite a useful article though. Still, a part of Jay changing locations randomly can be explained through a confusing/stressful situation for him and just cloudy memory. If they're driving around for drugs, it's to be expected that he doesn't know which roads they're on at what time. Things like the Patapsco state park might be just him messing up the days/times. I know that this is a very charitable interpretation on my part, but it is probably just about plausible. It is still frustrating either way, as Jay is at best a guy who willingly aided a murderer, stayed silent for six weeks, then comes clean but with so many inconsistencies that he almost botches the whole case and lets the murderer free, and at the very worst he's someone who killed his friend's gf and framed him for it. Neither version is exactly from a Disney movie.

cherdano, on 2015-January-12, 15:10, said:

As for Jenn's testimony:

• She clearly lied about some things. (According to her, both Jay and Jenn were at Jenn's house until 3.40pm - one of the few things that Jay1, Jay2, Jay3, ... and Jenn are all consistent about - and Jay had the cellphone until then. This seems very unlikely, given that the cellphone was used to call Jenn's landline before that, and not from a tower covering Jenn's house.)
  
• She was very close to Jay. ("Girlfriend?" "Not really. But very close.")
  
• She certainly had opportunity to coordinate her testimony with Jay.

Of course, she was lying or twisting the truth to a certain extent too. But it's one thing for her to talk to Jay and make the details match and another thing to be OK with lying about Jay naming Adnan on the 13th. To me, that is directly implicating Adnan and sending a possibly innocent man to prison, it's not the same as changing a detail here or there. All that this proves (if it proves anything) is, of course, only that Jay told Jen on the 13th that Adnan killed Hae, which would mean that either Jay set out framing Adnan from the get-go or that he doesn't lie about the main point of his testimony.

Plus there's also Chris and the porn dude (still don't know his name) who both said that Jay specifically mentioned Adnan killing Hae the days after the murder. As far as I remember, neither of them testified to police, so maybe they are only inserting these things after the fact, but Chris's memories, even from 2014, seemed very detailed, although this time it's about a pool hall and not Jen's house! lol.

Sorry for a bunch of rambling! I will close by mentioning I got a bad feeling today when I listened to Adnan explaining that he used to be or still is frustrated with people accepting that he could be a murderer. He says (ep. 6, starting about 35:20) "It would be different if there was a videotape of me doing it, or there was like you know, Hae fought back and all this stuff of me, like DNA, and scratches, and stuff like that, you know what I'm saying, or if someone saw me leaving with Hae that day, like three people saw me..." The part "{if} Hae fought back" really made me uncomfortable, the way he was saying it, that sounded like he knows she did not fight back. I know that people tend to over-think these things, and think they can deduce everything from half a word or a "microexpression" so I will not say I am convinced or swayed by this but as kenberg said in another thread, people are not logical creatures fundamentally. I read a lot of this psycho babble online about Adnan and Jay and I discard most of it instantly, but this one was the first one that caught me. Maybe time for me to stop relistening to the podcast?

PS: the more I think about Adnan not remembering absolutely anything about that day seems incredibly weird. He not only lends out his car and phone, but goes to track practice, smokes weed with a bunch of people, talks to the police about one of his best friends going missing, all this before going to the mosque, then maybe meets with Jay again, or some combination of these things, and you don't remember anything from this? I don't know but that seems like a pretty eventful day to me.

[cherdano]

Try matching up one of Jay's timelines with the cellphone location data. It really does not work.
I mean, even if you believe the Nisha call places Jay and Adnan together, then that contradicts one of the few things both Jay and Jenn are very consistent about, namely that they were at Jenn's house until about 3.40pm.

[cherdano]

gwnn, on 2015-January-13, 15:58, said:

PS: the more I think about Adnan not remembering absolutely anything about that day seems incredibly weird. He not only lends out his car and phone, but goes to track practice, smokes weed with a bunch of people, talks to the police about one of his best friends going missing, all this before going to the mosque, then maybe meets with Jay again, or some combination of these things, and you don't remember anything from this? I don't know but that seems like a pretty eventful day to me.

Isn't there a third explanation for that, though? Maybe Adnan knows enough about Jay's plans for that day that he can puzzle things together. But like others who haven't been talking to the police or Sarah Koenig, he is still afraid of the actual murder.
The more I read about Jay and Jenn, the more I am reminded about something else Adnan said. (I am paraphrasing, as I can't look up transcripts right now.) Sarah asks why he isn't more upset about the whole situation, and he replies: "Well, it's my fault, if I had been a good Muslim, if I hadn't become friends with these people, then Hae would still be alive." Isn't that a weird thing to say? Unless it is the truth?

[cherdano]

Susan Simpson is really impressive:
Evidence that Jay’s Story was Coached to Fit the Cellphone Records

[gwnn]

cherdano, on 2015-January-13, 19:24, said:

Try matching up one of Jay's timelines with the cellphone location data. It really does not work.
I mean, even if you believe the Nisha call places Jay and Adnan together, then that contradicts one of the few things both Jay and Jenn are very consistent about, namely that they were at Jenn's house until about 3.40pm.

I already said that it does not fully match, but I don't think the cell records demonstrate that none of it matches. I ask you again: what did you mean by "completely contradicted?" Do you mean that it is known that all of the storyline items are false or do you mean that it is known that at least some items are false? I think none of Jay's timelines are completely true, but I could* chalk it up to the following factors:
-Jay just doesn't remember accurately, it has been 6 weeks and he was shocked what he'd been going through.
-He's conflating things that he and Adnan planned and things that actually happened.
-The police are trying to make sense of the various pieces of information and make him say things that did not happen (in the process making his testimony less and less contradictory perhaps but also less and less true).
-He is protecting some people, chief among them himself. He says he also wanted to protect his grandma. Well, no, I do not buy that. But maybe defend people like Stephanie or Jen who might have more to do with it (maybe knew about what was going to happen before) than we know? For example, he told Chris that he'd been hanging out at a pool hall and not Jen's when he was called by Adnan (in person?!). Maybe he did not want to tell the police who he was hanging out with at the pool hall because he was there with some drug-related people and stuck to Jen instead.

*-of course, that is not how it's supposed to work in a court of law, giving various excuses for the witness to see if you can convict the defendant. But I assume we are more talking about various scenarios available to make sense of what's going on with Jay, and not what we'd vote for on jury duty. The latter is very likely not guilty for both of us.

cherdano, on 2015-January-13, 19:42, said:

Isn't there a third explanation for that, though? Maybe Adnan knows enough about Jay's plans for that day that he can puzzle things together. But like others who haven't been talking to the police or Sarah Koenig, he is still afraid of the actual murder.

And he refused to say anything about the actual murderer in his trial, to SK, refused to even hint at this? All he managed to do is say 'pathetic' to Jay? He also did not warn Hae, nothing?

Quote

The more I read about Jay and Jenn, the more I am reminded about something else Adnan said. (I am paraphrasing, as I can't look up transcripts right now.) Sarah asks why he isn't more upset about the whole situation, and he replies: "Well, it's my fault, if I had been a good Muslim, if I hadn't become friends with these people, then Hae would still be alive." Isn't that a weird thing to say? Unless it is the truth?

It is a weird thing to say no matter what. When I first heard it it seemed like he meant he lent out his car to the wrong people, but that still doesn't quite explain what went down. It would mean that Jay and the conspiracy decided from day 1 to go ahead and frame Adnan (hoping, I guess, that he would not have an alibi or anything helpful), wait for Stephanie's birthday, ask for the car, kill Hae, bury her, hang out with Adnan conspicuously, act strangely, tell a few of your friends immediately that Hae is dead but you are committing perjury instead (hoping they will not go to the cops just yet but only let you do it in 6 weeks when Adnan forgot where he was), ... Does this sound plausible?

Saying "It's my fault, if I had been a good Muslim, if I hadn't become friends with these poeple, Hae would be alive" could just mean that a good Muslim doesn't fall in love with Korean areligious magnet girls. Of course that does not explain the "friends with these people" part but I don't quite know what to make of that anyway.

A more harmonious way of explaining it could be one of the scenarios that I see online, like Hae finding out about Jay cheating on Stephanie and him killing her in a snap judgement, but that really sounds like a soap opera (is Hae the only person on the planet who knew he cheated on Stephanie? if not, will you kill all of them?). There was a suggestion that Adnan and Jay got in way over their heads in the drug market and something went wrong and the solution was to kill Hae, but I don't quite know why that would be the solution to anything. I would expect if a drug dealer is cross at Adnan, killing him would be a much more normal course of action than framing him for murder with a very flimsy case where you got lucky he got convicted. Furthermore, if Jay was friends with that sort of godfathers, would the police not known about him? They could have made him for much more information than just the location of a missing car. But of course, if Adnan is guilty, then he knows that saying "I'm innocent for murder, but I know that I could have avoided this tragedy by being a better Muslim" will get a lot of brownie points from basically all sides of the spectrum (from the religious people, from the listeners, maybe even from a possible future jury).

[cherdano]

I don't want to argue about your full post, but I do want to give some context that I guess you might be unaware of.

gwnn, on 2015-January-15, 13:49, said:

He says he also wanted to protect his grandma. Well, no, I do not buy that. But maybe defend people like Stephanie or Jen who might have more to do with it (maybe knew about what was going to happen before) than we know? For example, he told Chris that he'd been hanging out at a pool hall and not Jen's when he was called by Adnan (in person?!).

He did not say he wanted to protect his grandma. He said that he ran his operation out of his grandma's house, and he wanted to protect his family.

The context is the following: using the Maryland Judiciary Case Search, you can find many people with the same last name as Jay, who have a much longer criminal record than him. They all list the same address, and when a bond is posted, it is often in the grandmother's name. Most of the charges are drug-related (and no, typically not Marijuana, and frequently not just possession), but also include assault of the second degree. Certainly sounds like people more likely to be scared off than vague Pakistani uncles. In one of the cases (with a lot of drug dealing charges) Jenn is a co-defendant, in another she bails out one of the defendants.
Some of the cellphone location data matches the location of that address, including at a time when Adnan was most likely at track practice.

I don't see why you need to make such an elaborate theory of how Hae was killed. Maybe she saw Adnan's car, walked up to the car - while Jay and XYZ were involved in a drug deal, and XYZ didn't like being approached like that. Who knows?

I have no idea why the police didn't pursue these connections (some of the charges predate the muder of Hae). But the 3rd party theory isn't as crazy as it sounds. It's a murder in Baltimore, in which some close to the case are still afraid of speaking out 15 years later, and in which the person who we know to be partially involved has a lot of drug connections. "Something involving drugs" is one of the likeliest a priori explanations, not a crazy one.
Meanwhile, "Lending your drug dealer your car so he can buy a birthday present, after you have made trips around town together earlier that day" is a not-so-credible statement...

I also think your trust in the police is misplaced. THEY DIDNT EVEN INTERVIEW EVERYONE CALLED FROM ADNAN'S CELLPHONE ON THE DAY OF THE MURDER!

[cherdano]

Btw, there is another reason why the police would want to believe Jay: his testimony gave them serious charges against someone with drug connections...

[billw55]

I have not listened to this program, but it sounds interesting. I am curious. Is this presented as containing information that was not given at trial? Essentially, is it new investigation, or just a rehash of what the jury got?