[Mbodell]

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Playing IMP teams with an inperson pickup partner, 2/1 with 15-17 opening 1nt, what would you call here?

[paulg]

Undo. I'd have opened 1NT.

[Cascade]

If I was going to upgrade I should have done that a round earlier. As it is nothing in the auction has improved my hand so I have an easy pass.

[broze]

Yes - abstain. I open a 15-17 NT. Not having done so - pass.

[billw55]

What makes this hand worth an upgrade? Spot cards look average and honor concentration is poor. Do you automatically upgrade all 5332 hands? IMO if you open this a strong 1NT you should disclose your range as 14-17.

[whereagles]

billw55, on 2014-July-07, 06:26, said:

What makes this hand worth an upgrade?

The fact that I'll be declaring.

[paulg]

billw55, on 2014-July-07, 06:26, said:

What makes this hand worth an upgrade? Spot cards look average and honor concentration is poor. Do you automatically upgrade all 5332 hands? IMO if you open this a strong 1NT you should disclose your range as 14-17.

5-card suit with two honours and no jacks in the hand. Declaring the range as 14+ to 17 implies that I have some criteria.

[Cyberyeti]

billw55, on 2014-July-07, 06:26, said:

What makes this hand worth an upgrade? Spot cards look average and honor concentration is poor. Do you automatically upgrade all 5332 hands? IMO if you open this a strong 1NT you should disclose your range as 14-17.

Shape + intermediates are good, what do I need from partner for game ? Q10x, J10x (Jxx after subsequent events), Jxx, AJxx is a quacky 9 count and may well make game, it's extremely probable on this hand with the subsequent developments, so maybe you can upgrade later.

[ArtK78]

I pass. Perfectly normal auction. I have a maximum balanced hand for not opening 1NT. That is allowed, despite a lot of sentiment for upgrading to a 1NT opening.

It might be right at IMPs to rebid 2♦. But I am not moving towards game.

[gwnn]

sign me up for +150

[trevahound]

Ya'll really think game won't be 40% or better on average? At these colors/form of scoring, I would think 3nt nearly automatic. Defense is hard, and partner rates to have 9-10 (or even 11, when 2nt would be conventional by him) more often than 6-7. Besides, -100 here rates to be a push, but +150 is expensive.

I'd rather this played from my side, but that ship has sailed.

[ArtK78]

trevahound, on 2014-July-07, 10:28, said:

Ya'll really think game won't be 40% or better on average? At these colors/form of scoring, I would think 3nt nearly automatic. Defense is hard, and partner rates to have 9-10 (or even 11, when 2nt would be conventional by him) more often than 6-7. Besides, -100 here rates to be a push, but +150 is expensive.

I'd rather this played from my side, but that ship has sailed.

Partner is not timid. If 3NT has reasonable play opposite my hand, partner would bid more than 1NT. I am not playing him for a super max.

And no, I don't think that game is 40% or better.

[whereagles]

trevahound, on 2014-July-07, 10:28, said:

Ya'll really think game won't be 40% or better on average?

No, I don't think. Pard can have 8-9 H, sometimes even 7. Bidding 3NT is playing craps and even if you "win" and find pard with ♦A, you're not a lock for 9 tricks.

[gordontd]

trevahound, on 2014-July-07, 10:28, said:

Ya'll really think game won't be 40% or better on average? At these colors/form of scoring, I would think 3nt nearly automatic. Defense is hard, and partner rates to have 9-10 (or even 11, when 2nt would be conventional by him) more often than 6-7. Besides, -100 here rates to be a push, but +150 is expensive.

I'd rather this played from my side, but that ship has sailed.

You jump to 3NT with a hand that wasn't strong enough to open 1NT. What do you do with a hand that was too strong to open 1NT?

[quiddity]

There is also the risk of getting doubled when LHO has a good suit and entries.

[trevahound]

Of course I could go set. Loss aversion is a huge fallacy in the bridge world, in my experience. If I genuinely think 3nt to be roughly 40%, I would be saying I expect to go set roughly 6 out of 10 times, rather than that I expect it to be gilt edged.

I don't think responder should be bidding 1nt here on the same minimum hands that he would make the call at mps. After all, partner will protect if it's just a part score battle, and it's less likely to be critical to win the race to 1nt. I am presuming 1nt shows some actual cards, and not KTxx and a side K. If my experience with this partner shows otherwise, my vote is different.

Forcing partner to jump to 2nt on all decent 10's when opener's most likely hand type is a weak NT seems misguided at any form of scoring. Since I expect 8-10 ish, and more than a couple 9's are good enough, I play the IMP odds. At mps I can afford to risk the 10 opposite 14's in 1nt, but hot hot hot at imps? And defense is hard. I've been set before at IMPs, and I've also been doubled and set before, so neither of those will bring out the water works.

Cheers,

Brian Zaugg

[gwnn]

Loss aversion is indeed a fallacy but so is quoting the 40% like it is set in stone. Those apply for vulnerable games in IMP's provided that we never go down more than 1 and provided that we never get doubled. I don't think either of those conditions apply here. We can go down a bunch if partner brings no help in diamonds, for example.

[quiddity]

I doubt anyone will be able to convince you otherwise, but.. you expect 8-10ish. That means you have two balanced hands with 22-24ish and you're jumping to 3NT. I doubt this is percentage even at imps. Also I think you are overrating the chance of a misdefense and underrating the risk of getting doubled and WAY underrating the chance of going down more than one. Defense may be hard but it's likely to be a lot less hard when LHO has announced a 5+ card suit to set up and entries and the lead is coming through your Kx.

[quiddity]

The part that I find more interesting is what to expect from responder's 1NT, and whether to expect a stronger hand because this is imps vs mp. I'm not sure, but I think this is wrong. Going down in a red 1nt is likely to be more of a disaster at matchpoints. Protecting at a higher level is more dangerous at imps. So I think it is more important to get your say in early at imps and let partner know that he isn't alone and that he can feel more comfortable fighting for a partscore.

[chasetb]

A.) Sorry Mike, but count me too as one of the people who upgrade into 1NT. We have a good 5-card suit, and I want to avoid the cheap 1♠ or even 1NT overcall.

B.) Having opened 1♦, we now have to pass (my vote in the poll). Unless partner has something like QJxxx or QTxxx, we'll likely have too many points in a Spade suit that we know will break badly, and either Clubs or Hearts will be wide open. I see +120 coming our way.