[mr1303]

---

LHO leads the 8 of clubs.

You are playing MATCHPOINTS in a strong field.

How do you play the trump suit?

[CamHenry]

A and another gains when trumps are Kx or K offside (4 positions); loses to running the J if there's a small doubleton or T/9 singleton offside (5 positions). If I run the J successfully I make 12 tricks; if I run it and it's wrong I make 10. If I play A and another, I'm making 12 if the K is singleton offside and 11 otherwise (on the cases where it matters). Run the J makes 12 in 5 of these positions, 10 in 4. A and another makes 12 in 1, 11 in 3, 10 in 5.

The only other argument is that LHO had enough to overcall but RHO didn't have enough to open; but then LHO could be Qxxx/xx/AQJxxx/x leaving RHO with xxxxx/Kx/Kxx/Jxx, for example. I'm not good enough to evaluate this.

I run the J and take my chances.

[broze]

Why run the Jack when you can play low to the Q and pick up stiff K on your right?

[CamHenry]

broze, on 2013-August-01, 04:47, said:

Why run the Jack when you can play low to the Q and pick up stiff K on your left?

A vague and ill-analysed suspicion that you want to be able to repeat the finesse if RHO has KT5/K95. Entries to dummy are sparse. You're right that this is another position where running the J loses to banging down the A, though :-)

Thinking about the available 1-3 splits: running the J wins when the T or 9 is singleton offside, but loses if RHO covers from KT9 (which he should). It loses to leading up to the Q if RHO has K singleton, and ties in all other cases.

[broze]

CamHenry, on 2013-August-01, 04:52, said:

A vague and ill-analysed suspicion that you want to be able to repeat the finesse if RHO has KT5/K95. Entries to dummy are sparse.

I was just thinking only of stiff King onside. Though I concede your line is better picking up stiff T/9 on your left. Though all the 2-2s are not break even as you will lose to T9-Kx. And 2 dummy entries seems to be plenty to me.

[sectorzz9]

What are the opponent's leads and what did RHO play at trick 1?

If he plays the J under the Q then I'm worried about taking a losing heart finesse and conceding a club ruff if LHO has found a club lead from xxx.

[CamHenry]

broze, on 2013-August-01, 05:09, said:

I was just thinking only of stiff King onside. Though I concede your line is better picking up stiff T/9 on your left. Though all the 2-2s are not break even as you will lose to T9-Kx. And 2 dummy entries seems to be plenty to me.

Why do you do any worse running the J than leading up to the Q if there's T9-Kx? If the K is onside, you take the finesse then play another trump, for 0 losers. If the K is offside, you take the finesse, losing, then you lose a diamond and a club ruff (assuming the lead was a singleton). The same happens either way, unless I'm mistaken.

Edit: replying to the concern about LHO leading from ♣xxx. If you go up with the Q, you lose to the lead of the 8 from J8xx - but that seems unlikely. What hand could LHO have where leading from 8xx seems best? If he's holding ♠Qxx,♥K♦AQxxxx♣xxx, it might seem viable - but that's a narrow target, I think. Much more concern that LHO has the club singleton and that he's going to find the philosopher's coup in ♦.

[mr1303]

I played low from the dummy, and RHO played the Jack.

If it makes any difference, LHO found the lead fairly quickly.

[broze]

CamHenry, on 2013-August-01, 05:49, said:

Why do you do any worse running the J than leading up to the Q if there's T9-Kx? If the K is onside, you take the finesse then play another trump, for 0 losers. If the K is offside, you take the finesse, losing, then you lose a diamond and a club ruff (assuming the lead was a singleton). The same happens either way, unless I'm mistaken.

I'm ignoring ruffs for the moment to explain this (although that is clearly the issue on this hand). I am talking about T9 on your left, Kx on your right.

Running the J picks up stiff T/9 on your left as you said above. But only if when you run the Jack and you see the T/9 on your left you cross to dummy and finesse the other T/9, right? Ergo you will lose a trick to the stiff T9 on your left if you play that line. If you play a low x to the Q and see the T/9 on your left you can no longer pick up the T-K9x and 9-KTx holdings and so you should play for T9-Kx.

Therefore low to the Q wins against T9-Kx and T9x-K (2 cases) but loses to T-K9x and 9-KTx (2 cases).

[PhilKing]

I would go up with the ♣Q. Now you will tend to get a more reliable signal from East. That's not likely to matter here, but it's the principle, and you never know - East may play a fatuous jack from Jx.

Anyway, I intend to lead a heart next and play ace and another, but if East plays specifically the ♥T, I will finesse, since not many people will find that false-card from Tx.

[billw55]

1. looks like a very likely stiff club lead
2. they have communication in diamonds
3. lefty is a favorite to hold the ♥K on the bidding

I am playing ace and another heart.

[mikeh]

Imo, one needs to think about the hand from West's perspective. We have had a power auction, on my part, to game. He has made an aggressive lead: it has to be odds-on to be a stiff. Whether stiff or doubleton, on this sort of auction, we might have clubs as a side suit but we are very unlikely to have spades, so this is, I repeat, an aggressive lead at mps.

Would we make that lead with say Qxx xxx AKJxxx x? Why? Do we really want to bank on partner holding an Ace in clubs or trumps? Meanwhile we see our diamond(s) disappear? Not at mps, surely.

I think it far more likely that LHO has a trump stopper. Now, if he has Kxx, there isn't anything we can do about it, but it would be tragic to lose to the Kx and then see him cross in diamonds for a ruff.

Add to this, as Bill hinted, that his ability to make a 2 level overcall suggests he has the great majority of the missing honours, and the odds must be very heavily in favour of playing LHO for the heart K.

This means for me it is clear to lay down the heart A and continue low.

Mps isn't always about finding the single dummy line that maximizes your tricks. It is as often, if not more, about reading what is going on and catering to it.