[Cthulhu D]

PhilKing, on 2013-June-18, 16:46, said:

I think this is the wrong forum to discuss the many factors behind the Pavlicek stats, but I firmly believe that Acol, despite it's many other flaws is best able to allow flexibilty (and effectiveness) in this regard. For and those with the time, you can view the most recent 100 occasions where one side opened 1♥/♠ and the other 1NT and see what is actually happening.

It may be a deep reach, since virtually none of the hands involve Acol pairs, but whatever! To be continued.

Maybe it should be, but I've found this Fascinating.

My favourite findings are

A) Weak NT rules strong NT drools, Weak NT winning when the strong no trumpers open 1NT or 1m. Why is this the case?

B) Multi 2D's surprising efficiency - a lot of boards are where the opponents don't open, but there are quite a few where they do open 2H/S and multi triumphs. This is very peculiar.

C) Opening light every day with a minor is a winner

D) Don't open 1S light.

[Zelandakh]

I have not been to the site for a while but my guess is that A is due to the high impact of Fantunes within the weak NT stats.

[PhilKing]

Zelandakh, on 2013-June-19, 03:22, said:

I have not been to the site for a while but my guess is that A is due to the high impact of Fantunes within the weak NT stats.

No. Weak NT made most of its gains versus 1m before 2005.

Because it is so overloaded, the Fantunes 1NT does not appear to be a winner, but it aids cohesion elsewhere. My subjective impression is that 1NT might even be a loser for them. Anyway, the gain from weak NT versus 1m is small, whereas the gain of ANY no trump versus 1♥ is huge - 157 imps over 249 boards. I would say the sample size is still rather small though.

67. 2009 Bermuda Bowl Qualifying

None Vul
Q J 7
Q 10 9 6 4
K 6 3
A 3

A K 9 8 6 5 2
A
Q J 7 4
9

Fantunes bid:
1NT 2♣
2♥ 2♠(relay)
2NT 3♠
4♣ 4♥
5♣ (x) 6♠

In the other room:
1♥ 1♠
1NT 3♠
4♣ 4♥
4♠

Essentially the auctions were in an identical situation when South bid 3♠ but Fantoni bid better than his counterpart by committing to the five level and thus showing the diamond king by inference. It doesn't take many results like this to give 1♥ an unwarranted bad name.

[TylerE]

Cthulhu D, on 2013-June-19, 02:09, said:

C) Opening light every day with a minor is a winner

D) Don't open 1S light.

This was by far the most interesting to me....prevailing/traditional wisdom would seem to be the opposite.... open light in the majors but solid in the minors. I guess the big win is finding the 4-4 with like 11 vs 6?

[campboy]

TylerE, on 2013-June-19, 09:16, said:

This was by far the most interesting to me....prevailing/traditional wisdom would seem to be the opposite.... open light in the majors but solid in the minors.

Isn't that exactly why RP gets this result? People are already opening lighter with the majors, so a major-suit hand which is included in the sample (because it was opened at one table but not the other) is probably weaker than a typical minor-suit hand which is included.

[ArtK78]

PhilKing, on 2013-June-19, 03:41, said:

No. Weak NT made most of its gains versus 1m before 2005.

Because it is so overloaded, the Fantunes 1NT does not appear to be a winner, but it aids cohesion elsewhere. My subjective impression is that 1NT might even be a loser for them. Anyway, the gain from weak NT versus 1m is small, whereas the gain of ANY no trump versus 1♥ is huge - 157 imps over 249 boards. I would say the sample size is still rather small though.

67. 2009 Bermuda Bowl Qualifying

None Vul
Q J 7
Q 10 9 6 4
K 6 3
A 3

A K 9 8 6 5 2
A
Q J 7 4
9

Fantunes bid:
1NT 2♣
2♥ 2♠(relay)
2NT 3♠
4♣ 4♥
5♣ (x) 6♠

In the other room:
1♥ 1♠
1NT 3♠
4♣ 4♥
4♠

Essentially the auctions were in an identical situation when South bid 3♠ but Fantoni bid better than his counterpart by committing to the five level and thus showing the diamond king by inference. It doesn't take many results like this to give 1♥ an unwarranted bad name.

Isn't this result due to South (in the other room) passing 4♠ rather than continuing on with 5♠ (asking for diamond control)? I really think that South was very timid in passing 4♠ after his partner made a forward going move by bidding 4♣. Clearly, 3♠ was forcing, but this is a powerful hand needing only xxx xxxxx Kx Axx from opener to make 6♠ extremely good (needing only 2-1 spades), and opener promised a lot more than that.

So, at least for this hand, and probably many others, you may have a cause and effect problem in the analysis.

[Cthulhu D]

TylerE, on 2013-June-19, 09:16, said:

This was by far the most interesting to me....prevailing/traditional wisdom would seem to be the opposite.... open light in the majors but solid in the minors. I guess the big win is finding the 4-4 with like 11 vs 6?

Note of caution - this is 1st and 2nd seat only. But with that said opening 1D light is about 55% vs 45% against pass, whereas 1C has only a 2% edge, so I suspect it's more complex than that, but it might just be that a more aggressive 1D opening gives better positioning in competitive auctions.

[Free]

The issue with playing ACOL with weak NT is that a 2/1 can be very light (8+) after which we may get into trouble. So I'd advise to just open 1NT and have a system to find out if opener has a 5 card M (for example 3♣ Puppet Stayman).