[kgr]

IMP's

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Opps play udca
LHO leads ♠K: (South's play in bold)
♠K-2-3-4
♠T-5-J-6
♣5-A-4-2
♥A-8-3-4
♦5-2-Q-9
♥5-6-?

IMP's

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finesse or not? How clear is it?

[billw55]

West has more vacant spaces, but east rates to hold the bulk of the honor cards. With only this to go on, I am inclined to finesse, but not with particularly high confidence.

East failed to attempt a trump promotion at trick three. That might suggest he holds the trump queen himself, not sure if that is a reasonable inference though.

[rmnka447]

I'm finessing.

You have 22 HCP and LHO has shown up with ♠ K at trick 1. Then RHO (opener) led a low ♣ at trick 3. That indicates the RHO is unlikely to hold ♣ KQ(J)x, giving LHO either ♣ K or ♣ Q. Therefore, LHO looks to have at least 5 or 6 HCP. Added to the 22 HCP your side already had, that leaves 12 or 13 HCP for opener. So it's unlikely that RHO has enough for an opener if LHO also has ♥ Q.

BTW, it's better the lead ♥ J on the second lead of the ♥s. First of all, it might induce RHO to cover with the ♥ Q. Secondly, it's the start of a safety play in ♥s. An alarm bell should go off in your head when LHO plays the ♥ 8 under your ♥ A. There is a possibility it just might be a stiff. If RHO fails to cover from an original ♥ Q965, then you can repeat the finesse. If RHO properly covers the ♥ J with the ♥ Q with that holding, you win with the ♥ K. Your only hope is that RHO held at least 2 ♦s. You try to transport back to dummy with a ♦. If successful, you can lead your last ♥ from dummy and finesse the ♥ 7 from your holding of ♥ 107x to capture RHO's ♥ 9x.

[JLOGIC]

I'd play the ace and don't think it's that close. RHO seems to have 6 spades and not a doubleton club. If RHO is 6223 or 6214 then going up wins, and if RHO is 6313 we still win on Qx of hearts on our left. Hooking is only gaining against 6313 with Qxx of hearts on our right. RHO could easily have KJ of clubs and AQJ of spades for the opening bid, or even Kxx of clubs so I don't think the HCP considerations matter that much.

[JLOGIC]

Worth noting that RHO might have shifted to a low club from Qx with 6322 and both queens on our right, so that might be possible depending on level of RHO. However, LHO would probably have doubled with 2245 and 7 good points. This is a much more likely negative double with less shape that included Qxx of hearts on our left. So I'm willing to discount that possibility almost entirely.

[kgr]

Thanks all for the answers.

JLOGIC, on 2012-May-18, 13:12, said:

I'd play the ace and don't think it's that close. RHO seems to have 6 spades and not a doubleton club. If RHO is 6223 or 6214 then going up wins, and if RHO is 6313 we still win on Qx of hearts on our left. Hooking is only gaining against 6313 with Qxx of hearts on our right. RHO could easily have KJ of clubs and AQJ of spades for the opening bid, or even Kxx of clubs so I don't think the HCP considerations matter that much.

Actual hand in Bold.
I played this against Jack. That is my memory training (trying to know distribution of one hidden hand asap). I finessed and saw that I would have won if I played high.
Analysing in Jack then showed that playing high was better (I think an expected score of around 200 vs 100 for the finesse). So I wondered how clear it was and if I should have found this.
It is 2 against 1 for the finesse, but maybe the 1 has more weight

[SteveMoe]

♥ finesse is 50% chance.

Taking top 2 ♥s then playing for ♥Q hand to hold 3 or 4 ♦s appears to count out as:
33% (♥Q falls in 2 rounds) + 67%(36% 3-3♦s + 24% ♥Q has 4♦s) = 72%.
Cashing top trumps and pitching ♣ loser on long ♦ is better line.

BTW I would have ruffed the 3rd♠ after cashing 2 top ♥s before playing ♦ to dummy.

[billw55]

So west had ♥Qx and ♠KT? East could have given him a trump promotion.

edit: perhaps that wouldn't help the defense though.

[kgr]

billw55, on 2012-May-21, 06:10, said:

So west had ♥Qx and ♠KT? East could have given him a trump promotion.

edit: perhaps that wouldn't help the defense though.

It would have made the play easier because declarer can not guess wrong then because he has still Club A.

[billw55]

kgr, on 2012-May-21, 08:38, said:

It would have made the play easier because declarer can not guess wrong then because he has still Club A.

It could become an interesting matchpoint problem from west's perspective. Holding ♥xxx he could visualize the possible trump promotion for ♥Qx or stiff K. But he might also realize that this could help declarer make his contract. On the actual layout, a spade at trick 3 will hold declarer to 10 tricks, while he can make 11 on any switch.

Of course at IMPs he must try to beat the contract, and hoping for declarer to finesse into Qx might well be the best chance.

Bridge fascinates me