JLOGIC, on 2011-September-02, 10:17, said:
Meh meant 4-1 obviously, losing 2 spade tricks and 2 whatever would suck. the CA and heart getting knocked out from our hand would suck.
Now that I've thought about it some more, I don't think that concerns about a 4-1 break suggest bidding 4
♥. If anything, they argue in favour of 4
♠.
Suppose, for example, that partner has AQJxxx x xxx xxx. In 4
♠, we can cope with either or both suits breaking 4-1 (on three rounds of diamonds we discard a club from dummy). In 4
♥ we can cope with 4-1 spades, but probably not with 4-1 hearts - they cash two diamonds and switch to a club, and we'll need the long trump to have three spades.
Another example: QJ10xxx x xxx Kxx. 4
♥ is down on either 4-1 break, but 4
♠ survives a 4-1 spade break.
The difference is that in hearts we can see we're probably missing the secondary honours that would allow us to cope with a bad break. In spades partner may have them, and probably does have them because he's vulnerable.
This is a complex decision, becase we have to consider partner's style, responder's failure to make a negative double, and the possibility that they'll compete to 5
♦. If they're going to save, it's much better to have bid 4
♥ so that we can involve partner in the decision.